RADIO
Another weekend of nearly but not quite as Newcastle couldn't find a winner against the 10-men of Fulham and had to settle for a point. A Newcastle winner would have netted us a +164 pick and +850 correct score. Tottenham then wet the bed at home to Leicester (losing 2-0) before Aston Villa helped us end the weekend on a positive note with a +150 winner. As mentioned last week, this time of year sees games coming thick and fast. Teams will rotate their squad and we always see some strange results so tread carefully through this festive period.
- Picks total - 13 out of 33
- Parlays - 1 out of 11
- Correct scores - 4 out of 33
Before you read on, remember these important things: Betting on sports should be fun. If you aren't having fun with it, stop. Never bet what you can't afford to lose. And if you don't agree with my picks, don't bet on them. I'm far from being a professional gambler and just enjoy a flutter on the soccer. All I'm doing is looking at stats to try and find potential value in the likelier outcomes. I'll predict the score of each game I look at (although these are notoriously difficult to pick so I'm not suggesting you bet on these significantly) and will be picking the bet I think offers the best value so it'll be down to you what you bet on and how.
I won't be reviewing every game, but just identifying the three games I believe have the best value bet. Feel free to reach me on Twitter @Baseball_Jimbo for any info, have a pop for any duds and (hopefully) pats on the back for winners. All odds are taken from Pinnacle or Draftkings Sportsbooks and were correct at the time of writing.
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Saturday, December 26th, 2020
Chelsea @ Arsenal - 12:30 pm ET
Chelsea labored to a 3-0 victory over West Ham in midweek, needing a couple of late goals to seal the win. But seal it they did as they returned to winning ways following two straight defeats. That win kept them in the title race at least and was also their first clean sheet in four games. Chelsea rank 3rd in expected goals for (23.9 xG) and against (13.4 xGA) and they have plenty of squad depth to be able to rotate players during the hectic schedule, especially in attacking areas as outlined by the 13 different Premier League goalscorers they have had so far (14 games).
Arsenal avoided the ignominy of setting a club record run of home defeats by drawing against Southampton last home game, but any thoughts of that turning their season around was soon ended with another insipid display seeing them fall 2-1 at Everton. It's now just two points in their last seven games, scoring just three and they are likely to be without captain and star striker Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang for Boxing Day. Manager Mikel Arteta is on the hot seat and has a poor squad to pick from so it's near impossible to see how Arsenal gets anything from this game.
Chelsea 5th - 25 pts
Arsenal 15th - 14 pts
Score prediction: Arsenal 0 - 2 Chelsea (Draftkings odds +800)
Betting Pick:
- Money Line - Chelsea to win @ -103 (Pinnacle)
Newcastle United @ Manchester City - 3:00 pm ET
Newcastle United manager Steve Bruce gave a pretty candid (and somewhat concerning) interview before their last game detailing some of the impact the club's Covid-19 outbreak has had on their players. Two starters are still out some three weeks after their diagnosis and other players have been experiencing fatigue and other symptoms affecting their play. That goes a long way to explaining why they have been pretty bleak since the outbreak with a narrow 2-1 win against second from bottom West Brom being their only win. The 5-2 defeat at Leeds was an eye-opener and they needed a questionable penalty to draw against lowly Fulham. That was followed by a midweek defeat in the EFL Cup to Championship side Brentford.
Although Manchester City has been far from vintage this season, they sent out a reminder of their talents at the end of November with a 5-0 win at home to Burnley. They've been unbeaten since then, conceding just once and could have record scorer Sergio Aguero available to start this game. Historically, this has been a game Manchester City has dominated. The last eight Premier League games between the two sides with Manchester City as the home side has seen eight home wins with an aggregate score of 32-4 and you need to go back to September 2000 to find the last time Newcastle won this EPL fixture.
Newcastle United 12th - 18 pts
Manchester City 8th - 23 pts
Score prediction: Manchester City 4 - 0 Newcastle United (Pinnacle odds +750)
Betting Pick:
- Handicap - Manchester City -2.5 @ +104 (Pinnacle & Draftkings)
Sunday, December 27th, 2020
Tottenham @ Wolves - 2:15 pm ET
Tottenham's stuttering form is seeing them slip away from the top spot with just one win in their last five league games and back-to-back defeats. Mourinho was lauded for the tactics deployed during their unbeaten run of 11 games, but the 1-1 draw against Crystal Palace and 2-0 defeat to Leicester last game has shined a light on their defensive style with goals lacking despite having some of the most potent attacking threats in the league. Of Tottenham's 25 league goals scored this season, 20 have been scored by Harry Kane and Heung-Min Son. Teams are now putting much more emphasis on stopping these two which is all but nullifying their threat.
Wolves have now lost three of their last four games, since losing top scorer Raul Jimenez to a serious head injury. They've only managed three goals in that span, one of which was a penalty. Defensively, Wolves have been solid enough with the 6th best xGA record (17.0) and the two goals conceded against Burnley last game was only the second time in 11 games they conceded more than one, the other time coming against league leaders Liverpool.
This bet does need a bit of unraveling. The under 3.5 goals has been covered as both teams are solid defensively and don't score loads themselves. While neither side has a particularly poor disciplinary record (combined for 39 yellow cards in their 14 games), the referee for this game is Paul Tierney who has shown 32 yellow cards and 3 red cards in his eight games this season. After their last defeat, Wolves manager Nuno Espirito Santo criticized the referee (Lee Mason). The impact of that will mean Paul Tierney either feels pressured to ensure Wolves don't feel victimized, or he'll be vindictive and harsher on Wolves players as some sort of pseudo revenge (something this particular referee is more than capable of doing). Either way, I expect at least three cards to be shown.
Neither of these teams racks up the corners, with Tottenham ranking 15th with 61 and Wolves 13th with 67. In what should be a tight game with both sides preferring to play on the back foot, corners should be even harder to come by. I'd give the slight edge to Tottenham on the Money Line but I'm not confident enough to back that outright given their recent form to back them fully.
Tottenham 6th - 25 pts
Wolves 11th - 20pts
Score prediction: Wolves 0 - 1 Tottenham (Draftkings odds +540)
Betting Pick:
- Single-game parlay - Under 3.5 total goals, over 2.5 total cards, under 11.5 total corners @ +115 (Draftkings)
Parlay
- All three picks @ +864
Good luck with those EPL bets and remember to bet responsibly! I hope everyone will have/is having/has had (depending on when you are reading this) a good Christmas and check back soon as matchweek 16 is on Monday and Tuesday.
