RADIO
First things first; this will be a shortened piece this week. Still three picks, still three score predictions and still a parlay. But I'm currently nursing a broken finger so typing is painful and is something I need to limit right now (Doctor's orders). Anyway, last week was our best of the season with two correct picks (+103 & +108), a winning parlay (+626) and a correct score (+1100). No less research has gone into this week so rest assured, the only difference is less quantity and not less quality.
- Picks total - 10 out of 24
- Parlays - 1 out of 8
- Correct scores - 4 out of 24
Before you read on, remember these important things: Betting on sports should be fun. If you aren't having fun with it, stop. Never bet what you can't afford to lose. And if you don't agree with my picks, don't bet on them. I'm far from being a professional gambler and just enjoy a flutter on the soccer. All I'm doing is looking at stats to try and find potential value in the likelier outcomes. I'll predict the score of each game I look at (although these are notoriously difficult to pick so I'm not suggesting you bet on these significantly) and will be picking the bet I think offers the best value so it'll be down to you what you bet on and how.
Fans are being permitted back into most stadiums this weekend (albeit in very small numbers) for the first time since March which may help some home teams, but it's impossible to tell until we see at least a few games, so that's something to keep in mind going forward. I won't be reviewing every game, but just identifying the three games I believe have the best value bet. Feel free to reach me on Twitter @Baseball_Jimbo for any info, have a pop for any duds and (hopefully) pats on the back for winners. All odds are taken from Pinnacle or Draftkings Sportsbooks and were correct at the time of writing.
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Saturday, December 12th, 2020
West Brom @ Newcastle United - 10:00 am ET
Newcastle has had two weeks to prepare after a Covid-19 outbreak within the squad saw last week's fixture postponed. They've yet to win back-to-back games this season and after victory last time out, this represents a great chance to win their second straight league game. West Brom completely capitulated last week after being reduced to ten-men, conceding four second-half goals to fall 5-1 at home to Crystal Palace. While West Brom has been competitive in most of their games, that was their third defeat by three or more goals in 11 games. They have just one point away this season and their only league win came against bottom side Sheffield United.
West Brom 19th - 6 pts
Newcastle United 13th - 14 pts
Score prediction: Newcastle United 2 - 0 West Brom (Draftkings odds +900)
Betting Pick:
- Money Line - Newcastle United to win @ +131 (Pinnacle)
Manchester City @ Manchester United - 12:30 pm ET
Last season, Manchester United won both Manchester derbies (1-0 and 2-1). They've made a habit of going behind early and mounting a second-half comeback this season but that isn't going to work very often against top-quality teams like Manchester City. A key part of Manchester City's play is possession, something opponents are generally happy to cede against them and then try to hit them on the counter-attack. That's exactly what happened last season with Manchester City having over 70% possession in both games and they've had 59% possession or more in nine of their eleven games so far.
Manchester City 7th - 18 pts
Manchester United 6th - 19 pts
Score prediction: Manchester United 1 - 2 Manchester City (Draftkings odds +700)
Betting Pick:
- Game Props - Away Team (Manchester City) over 58.5% ball possession @ -118 (Draftkings)
Some oddsmakers also have 'a goal in both halves' at around -163 which we can use in our parlay as an alternative.
Sunday, December 13th, 2020
Brighton @ Leicester City - 2:15 pm ET
Last week we took Leicester to win with plus odds as a top-4 team. We'll be doing the same this week. Although not at their best last, Leicester still showed they had enough firepower to pick up the three points. Leicester has conceded 15 goals this season with five coming from set-pieces and that weakness was exploited last week by Sheffield United. Brighton however has only scored from one set-piece this season and has the fourth-fewest shots from set-pieces so is one of the least likely teams to exploit Leicester's biggest weakness. Brighton's two wins this season have come away from home but both at bottom-half sides and they've only managed to get one point against sides in the top-half of the table this season (six games).
Brighton 16th - 10 pts
Leicester City 4th - 21 pts
Score prediction: Leicester City 2 - 0 Brighton (Draftkings odds +850)
Betting Pick:
- Money Line - Leicester City to win @ +106 (Pinnacle & Draftkings)
Parlay
- You can parlay the three picks @ +879 if you can get the possession odds. Or alternatively, go with Leicester & Newcastle to win and Manchester City/Manchester United a goal in both halves @ +768
Good luck with those EPL bets and remember to bet responsibly! Check back for more EPL betting picks next week!
