RADIO
No sugar coating last week: it was brutal. Between Fulham and Leicester combining for 31 fouls and only two yellow cards, Everton and Leeds combining for 37 shots and just one goal, and Arsenal and Wolves combing for three goals in the first half, nothing went right. After three straight profitable weeks, it was a stark reminder that the EPL is the most unpredictable top-flight league in soccer. This weekend also sees the first postponement in the EPL due to a Covid-19 outbreak since it restarted back in June so just a nine-game slate to choose from.
- Picks total - 8 out of 21
- Parlays - 0 out of 7
- Correct scores - 3 out of 21
Before you read on, remember these important things: Betting on sports should be fun. If you aren't having fun with it, stop. Never bet what you can't afford to lose. And if you don't agree with my picks, don't bet on them. I'm far from being a professional gambler and just enjoy a flutter on the soccer. All I'm doing is looking at stats to try and find potential value in the likelier outcomes. I'll predict the score of each game I look at (although these are notoriously difficult to pick so I'm not suggesting you bet on these significantly) and will be picking the bet I think offers the best value so it'll be down to you what you bet on and how.
Fans are being permitted back into most stadiums this weekend (albeit in very small numbers) for the first time since March which may help some home teams, but it's impossible to tell until we see at least a few games, so that's something to keep in mind going forward. I won't be reviewing every game, but just identifying the three games I believe have the best value bet. Feel free to reach me on Twitter @Baseball_Jimbo for any info, have a pop for any duds and (hopefully) pats on the back for winners. All odds are taken from Pinnacle or Draftkings Sportsbooks and were correct at the time of writing.
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Saturday, December 5th, 2020
Leeds United @ Chelsea - 3:00 pm ET
Despite hurting our chances of winning anything last week, I'm picking the Leeds game again this week. Firstly, it's due to Leeds and the way they play. Despite the 15 goals scored by Leeds this season only ranking 8th in the league, they've had the second-most shots (153) and shots on target (54). They also rank second highest in expected goals scored (xG 17.8) and expected goals against (xGA 16.8). As mentioned, last week's 1-0 victory was despite a game having 37 shots and their opponents Everton having two goals disallowed.
The second reason I'm picking this game is that no team has scored more goals than Chelsea this season (21) and while Leeds has had plenty of efforts on their opponent's goal, they have also allowed the fourth-most shots (133) this season. If that trend continues, and there's no reason to think it wouldn't, Chelsea are unlikely to be as wasteful as Everton was last week. Chelsea was held to a 0-0 draw last week which was the third time they failed to score this year. However, all three blanks have come against teams in the 'Big-6'. In all other league games, Chelsea has scored at least two.
Chelsea has been very good defensively of late and ranks second in xGA (9.8) but I wouldn't be surprised if Leeds manage to score. One thing I am confident about is Chelsea winning and scoring at least two.
Leeds United 12th - 14 pts
Chelsea 3rd - 19 pts
Score prediction: Chelsea 3 - 1 Leeds United (Pinnacle odds +1100)
Betting Pick:
- Winner/Total Goals - Chelsea and over 2.5 @ +108 (Pinnacle)
Sunday, December 6th, 2020
Crystal Palace @ West Brom - 7:00 am ET
Crystal Palace has lost back-to-back league games without scoring following a home defeat against Newcastle last weekend. The lack of goals shouldn't come as a surprise as they rank 18th in xG (10.2) this season and was the second-lowest scorers last season with 31. Most worrying for Crystal Palace is the lack of clean sheets as they haven't had one since the opening day of the season. Outside of their 4-0 defeat at Chelsea, they haven't conceded more than two in a game though so aren't being blown away. Crystal Palace has been a team that keeps things tight defensively and manages to nick an odd goal for the past couple of seasons but they will need to correct things at one end of the pitch sooner rather than later if they are to avoid getting sucked into the relegation zone.
West Brom finally picked up their first win of the season last week with a 1-0 victory against bottom side Sheffield United (more on them later). It was also their first goal in four matches and just their second clean sheet. Goals have been hard to come by with their 6.7 xG being the lowest in the league. At the other end of the pitch, West Brom's xGA of 19.1 is by far the most.
This game is a classic case of two teams who struggle offensively but also defensively. It could easily finish 0-0 but I don't think Crystal Palace goes three games without scoring and I think West Brom carries the momentum from last week's win into this game. I don't foresee a high-scoring affair and any win is likely to be by an odd goal but the two sides' defensive issues should see both teams score.
Crystal Palace 15th - 13 pts
West Brom 17th - 6 pts
Score prediction: West Brom 1 - 1 Crystal Palace (Pinnacle odds +550)
Betting Pick:
- Single-game parlay - Total goals under 4.5 and Both Teams to Score Yes @ +123 (Draftkings)
Leicester City @ Sheffield United - 9:15 am ET
Leicester suffered a shock 2-1 defeat at home to Fulham last Monday, their second straight loss in the league. Similarly to Leeds, they've become a difficult team to predict as on their day, they can be exceptional as they showed in beating Manchester City 5-2 earlier in the season. Last season, Leicester experienced back-to-back defeats on four occasions. Once was the final two games of the season and the other three times, they followed the losses with a win. They also beat Sheffield United in both games last season. Their Thursday night defeat in the Europa League shouldn't impact them given they had already qualified for the next round of the competition and rested their starting XI.
Unlike Leicester, Sheffield United has been predictable this year in that they have been dreadful every week. They have the fewest goals scored (four in ten games), they're the only team in the league to have failed to score more than one in any game and sit bottom of the table without a win. I'm normally a bit leary of teams on such streaks as at some point, it will end. I just don't think it'll be this week. They could have gotten something out of the game last week but when the only positive you can say about a team is they could have nicked a draw against a winless opponent, it's hardly a ringing endorsement.
It's rare a team in the top-4 will have plus odds on the money line against a team bottom of the table so we'll look to take advantage of that this week.
Leicester City 4th - 18 pts
Sheffield United 20th - 1 pts
Score prediction: Sheffield United 0 - 2 Leicester City (Pinnacle odds +900)
Betting Pick:
- Money Line - Leicester City to win @ +105 (Pinnacle)
Parlay
- You can parlay the three picks @ +951. But I like Leicester and Chelsea to win with Crystal Palace/West Brom both to score @ +626 too
Good luck with those EPL bets and remember to bet responsibly! Check back for more EPL betting picks next week!
