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We're offering up our favorite betting pick for each game along with a score prediction and will include a player to look out for in fantasy from each fixture. Before you read on, remember these essential things: Betting on sports should be fun. If you aren't having fun with it, stop. And never bet what you can't afford to lose.
The Premier League is back after a two-week hiatus for the international break with some teams now having not played for three weeks due to postponements after the Queen's passing. This week's fixtures contain two local derbies involving the league's top-5 and two games involving teams in the bottom-4. So plenty of intriguing games at both ends of the table at this early stage.
We've been cranking up the soccer content at RotoBaller too. We're still bringing you dedicated DFS and Fantasy Premier League content, on top of the weekly preview and betting content. Follow the team on Twitter (@LucidMediaDFS, @PhilOfSports, @EuanOrYouOut, @df_solutions, @Mark_Kieffer, and yours truly @Baseball_Jimbo), and reach out to any of us if you ever have any soccer questions or need advice on any of this.
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2022-23 EPL Betting Picks
- Match results: 32-35
- Total picks: 31-31-5
- Parlays: 3-9
- ROI: 103.12% (+1.62 units)
Saturday, October 01st, 2022
Tottenham (+264) at Arsenal (+108) - 7:30 am ET
Score prediction: Arsenal 2 - 2 Tottenham
The North London Derby kicks things off this weekend with hosts Arsenal sitting atop the table. They've won all three home games so far this season but have yet to keep a clean sheet at home and have some key players nursing injuries on their return from international duty.
Tottenham can go top of the table with a win at rivals Arsenal, something they have achieved only once in their last 29 league meetings. They're unbeaten this season but have only won once in their three away games (at Nottingham Forest) while also losing to Sporting Lisbon in their one Champions League away tie.
Betting pick: Both teams to score & total goals - Yes & over 2.5 (+106) 1 unit
Neither team has looked great defensively in recent games, with Tottenham conceding two goals in each of their prior two games and Arsenal conceding five in their last four EPL games. Both teams have an abundance of attacking talent and this is one fixture that normally sees plenty of goals.
Player to watch: Bukayo Saka
After being voted the England national team's player of the year last week, he was then played out of position and started on the bench during England's two fixtures. He'll want to remind everyone why he was voted for as the player of the year and picked up a goal and assist in this fixture last season.
Brentford (+121) at Bournemouth (+245) - 10:00 am ET
Score prediction: Bournemouth 1 - 1 Brentford
Bournemouth are unbeaten in three games since sacking Scott Parker and four of the six goals they have scored this season have come in their last two games. Nearly 50% of the goals they've conceded came in their 9-0 loss at Liverpool while their other two defeats were against the current top-2 in the league table.
After a good start to the season, Brentford have now won just once in their last five league games following their 3-0 defeat at home to Arsenal before the break. They've yet to win on the road and yet to keep a clean sheet on their travels either.
Betting pick: Both teams to score - Yes (-119) 1 unit
Bournemouth have found their goalscoring touch recently and after an incredibly difficult run of games to start the season, they finally look to have found some form. Brentford's three away games have seen both teams score in each of them.
Player to watch: Philip Billing
The Danish international is the only Bournemouth player with two goals this season, both coming in the last two games. He's only started five of their seven EPL games but still ranks fourth on the team in shot-creating actions (nine) and will be a major part of Bournemouth's hopes of staying up this season.
Chelsea (-116) at Crystal Palace (+364) - 10:00 am ET
Score prediction: Crystal Palace 0 - 1 Chelsea
This will be Palace's first game in four weeks and will be the fourth time in their first seven matches that they've faced a team who finished in the top-5 last season. They only have one win on the season but the only teams to have beaten them are the current top-2.
New Chelsea boss Graham Potter will be taking charge for his first EPL game with Chelsea and will be keen to turn around their fortunes, especially away from home. Chelsea have just three points from their three away games and two goals scored.
Betting pick: Total goals - Under 2.5 (-115) 1 unit
While Potter is known as an attack-minded head coach, a big part of Brighton's success has been from clean sheets. His last game in charge of Brighton saw them win 5-2 but the five games prior saw a total of nine goals (six scored and three conceded). Four of Palace's six games have seen two or fewer total goals.
Player to watch: Raheem Sterling
Sterling leads the team in goals scored (three), shot-creating actions (16) and shots (11). Chelsea have struggled to find the net throughout the season on their travels with just one non-penalty goal in four games (all competitions). Sterling looks like Chelsea's best route to a goal again this weekend.
Newcastle United (+136) at Fulham (+219) - 10:00 am ET
Score prediction: Fulham 1 - 1 Newcastle United
Fulham finds themselves in sixth place after coming from behind to beat Nottingham Forest last time out. That was their first away win of the season but they are unbeaten at home in three games, scoring seven in the process.
Newcastle drew for the fifth time in seven games a fortnight ago and are yet to win on the road, scoring just twice in three away games. They have been solid defensively with Manchester City being the only team to score more than once against them
Betting pick: Single game parlay; Half with most goals - second half and team with most corners - Newcastle United (+175) 0.5 units
I'm completely torn between these two so am playing a parlay with this game. Newcastle leads the league in corners taken (53) with Fulham ranking tied-12th (31). Newcastle will be desperate for a win so I expect them to push forward more. There have been 23 goals scored in Fulham's games this season, 17 coming in the second halves. For Newcastle, ten of the 15 goals in their games have come after the interval.
Player to watch: Callum Wilson
Newcastle desperately needs to start scoring goals and record signing Alexander Isak is set to miss out through injury. But Wilson is expected to return and if he starts, will play a crucial factor as to whether or not Newcastle can start finding the net more regularly.
Brighton (+756) at Liverpool (-269) - 10:00 am ET
Score prediction: Liverpool 2 - 1 Brighton
Liverpool will have hoped the international break allowed some of their players to regroup and they'll be hoping their early season form turns around. Although they have just one defeat in six games, they have just two wins but come into the game unbeaten in their last three EPL games.
Brighton starts a new era with Roberto De Zerbi taking over from Graham Potter as Brighton's head coach. He is expected to bring a similar style of play but couldn't have picked a much harder start to his EPL coaching career. Brighton does enter the game above Liverpool in the league table and with the fewest goals conceded (five) in the league.
Betting pick: Handicap - Brighton +1.5 (-117) 1 unit
Outside of their 9-0 win against Bournemouth, every Liverpool game this season has been decided by less than two goals. Whilst Brighton have conceded two goals in each of their last two games, they've scored in every away game and going back to last season, Manchester City are the only team to have beaten Brighton by more than one goal in their last 15 games.
Player to watch: Trent Alexander-Arnold
The England full-back has had a horrid start to the season and his defensive frailties have been exposed on numerous occasions. It's that reason he doesn't appear in favor with the national team and he's yet to pick up an assist this season despite finishing second in the league for assists last season (12). He does still rank second on the team in shot-creating actions (24) and will need to find some form soon if he is to make the England world cup squad.
Everton (+254) at Southampton (+119) - 10:00 am ET
Score prediction: Southampton 0 - 0 Everton
Southampton seems to have solidified their defense after conceding six goals in their first two games of the season. They've only conceded one in each of their last four games but the problem is they have failed to score in three of those four games and now find themselves in 14th place.
Everton picked up their first win of the season before the break, a 1-0 victory at home to West Ham United. That followed four consecutive draws so they are now unbeaten in their last five EPL games and only Brighton (five) have conceded fewer goals than Everton (six) this season. The problem is they are yet to score more than once in a game.
Betting pick: Both teams to score & total goals - No & under 2.5 (+143) 0.5 units
Neither team has found goals easy to come by lately and Everton has been solid defensively all season, with only Aston Villa finding the net twice against them in any game. It's difficult to see how either team scores twice let alone thrice and I don't see both sides finding the net making the plus odds here very appealing.
Player to watch: Vitaliy Mykolenko
I'd be more confident in Everton keeping a clean sheet of these two teams and Mykolenko makes an interesting play. He's tied-4th for the team in shot-creating actions (13), second in completed passes (229) and third in crosses (10). He carries more of an attacking threat than the other defenders on display.
Wolves (+330) at West Ham United (-104) - 12:30 pm ET
Score prediction: West Ham United 1 - 0 Wolves
West Ham's season hasn't got going yet and they find themselves in the relegation zone following back-to-back defeats. Both came away from home but they have just one point and one goal from their three home games so far this season.
Wolves' inability to score is only matched by West Ham, with the teams tied for fewest goals scored (three). Wolves' away record is identical to West Ham's home record (one point and one goal scored in three games) although their 3-0 defeat against Manchester City last time out was their first defeat in four EPL games.
Betting pick: Team most booking points - Wolves (+100) 0.5 units
West Ham have been shown eight yellow cards (tied-4th fewest) in seven games, while Wolves have been shown 14 (tied-8th most). West Ham's opponents have been shown 19 yellow cards (tied-most) while Wolves' opponents have been shown 13 (tied-9th) most.
Player to watch: Jarrod Bowen
Following last season, Bowen was tipped for a world cup call-up for England. Unfortunately, he's struggled this season and is without a goal or assist. He leads the team in shots (15) but only one has been on target. Last season, 41.3% of Bowen's shots were on target so it should only be a matter of time before he rediscovers his accurate shooting boots.
Sunday, October 02nd, 2022
Manchester United (+686) at Manchester City (-269) - 9:00 am ET
Score prediction: Manchester City 2 - 1 Manchester United
Manchester City hosts the second top-of-the-table derby game knowing three points will see them move into the top spot if Arsenal fails to win their game. Despite City dominating the league in recent times, they have only won two of their last seven EPL games at home to their local rivals.
After a dreadful start to the season, United comes into the tie on a run of four straight EPL wins. But they haven't played a league game in four weeks and could be without top scorer Marcus Rashford, who has scored or assisted five of their eight league goals this season.
Betting pick: Handicap - Manchester United +1.5 (-101) 1 unit
As mentioned, United's record at City has been good in recent years and they look like a completely different team than the one that lost their first two games of the season. They have back-to-back away clean sheets in the EPL and while this is a completely different level of opposition, I don't see the home team romping to a comfortable win.
Player to watch: Erling Haaland
Haaland doesn't need me bigging him up and is on course to set all kinds of goal-scoring records. While he'll still be the most heavily played striker again this weekend, some teams might worry about the stronger opposition minimizing his impact. But I don't think there's a defence in the world that can stop Haaland right now.
Aston Villa (+207) at Leeds United (+140) - 11:30 am ET
Score prediction: Leeds United 3 - 1 Aston Villa
Leeds enter this game with one win in their last five EPL games, but are unbeaten in their three home games, taking seven points and conceding just twice at home. Brighton are the only team to keep a clean sheet against them and their ten goals scored is tied-most among teams in the bottom half of the table.
Villa picked up a crucial win before the break, beating Southampton 1-0 at home. Away from home, they have lost all three games, scoring just twice and conceding seven. They have an expected goals difference (xGD) of -4.3 on their travels, which is third-worst in the league.
Betting pick: Moneyline - Leeds United (+140) 1 unit
If we look at the two teams' respective home and away records, you'd be forgiven for thinking Leeds should be odds-on favorites. Although we don't have many games to go on this campaign, last season Aston Villa lost the fourth most away games of anyone in the league and Leeds will see this as a perfect opportunity to get back to winning ways.
Player to watch: Luis Sinisterra
Sinisterra has only started two games for Leeds following his move from Feyenoord in the Summer. He already has two goals, both coming in the last two games. The exciting winger has looked like a threat for Leeds every time he gets the ball and will fancy his chances of adding to his goal tally.
Monday, October 03rd, 2022
Nottingham Forest (+352) at Leicester City (-130) - 3:00 pm ET
Score prediction: Leicester City 3 - 2 Nottingham Forest
Leicester are rock bottom of the table with one point from seven games and on a six-game losing streak. Their 22 goals conceded are the most in the league and they've conceded 11 in their last two games. Somehow, manager Brendan Rodgers has avoided the sack so far but a loss on Monday will likely change that.
Nottingham Forest have lost four straight coming into this and the last two defeats were both games they led at half-time before losing 3-2. They have at least found their scoring form after finding the net just twice in their first five games but have now conceded 12 goals in their last three games
Betting pick: Half with most goals - second half (+100) 1 unit
Leicester's seven games have seen 12 first-half goals and 20 second-half goals. Forest's seven games have seen eight first-half goals and 15 second-half goals. At home Leicester's three games have seen two first-half goals and six second-half goals while Forest's three away games have seen three first-half goals and seven second-half goals.
Player to watch: James Maddison
Maddison leads Leicester with three goals this season although his hopes of making England's world cup squad are all but over. He also leads the team in shots (20) and shot-creating chances (20) while also being Leicester's predominant set-piece taker.
Parlays
Both teams to score: Fulham/Newcastle United, Arsenal/Tottenham, Manchester City/Manchester United, Leicester City/Nottingham Forest (+820) 0.5 units
Good luck with those EPL bets and remember to bet responsibly!
