RADIO
It was certainly a rough midweek. After bagging a winner on Tuesday to start things off, we went 0-for-5 the rest of the week and ended up with a loss, despite correctly predicting four of the six results. A reminder of how this stage of the season throws up some strange scores. This weekend sees the FA Cup final between Chelsea and Liverpool on Saturday so there are nine EPL fixtures between Sunday and Tuesday with three additional 'make up' games on Thursday (which we'll cover next week).
For the remainder of this season, we'll be previewing every game. We're still going to offer up our favorite betting pick for each game along with a score prediction. But we will also include a player to look out for in fantasy from each fixture. Before you read on, remember these important things: Betting on sports should be fun. If you aren't having fun with it, stop. And never bet what you can't afford to lose.
We've been cranking up the soccer content this year at RotoBaller too. We're still bringing you dedicated DFS and Fantasy Premier League content, on top of the weekly preview and betting content. Follow the team on Twitter (@vdray5, @RichKingFF, @LucidMediaDFS, @PhilOfSports, @EuanOrYouOut, @df_solutions and yours truly @Baseball_Jimbo) and reach out to any of us if you ever have any soccer questions or need advice on any of this.
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2021-22 EPL Betting Picks
Old Style
- Total picks: 135-206-18 (92.01% ROI)
- Match results: 38-49
New Style
- Match results: 22-14
- Total picks: 14-22-0
- Parlays: 2-7-0
- ROI: 78.11% (-10.40 units)
Sunday, May 15th, 2022
Burnley (+826) at Tottenham Hostspur (-279) - 7:00 am ET
Score prediction: Tottenham Hotspur 2 - 0 Burnley
Tottenham's win on Thursday sees them still with a chance of a top-4 finish and with a trip to Norwich City next weekend, a win at home to Burnley is still essential. Unlike Thursday, they shouldn't need favorable decisions from the referee to take the points here.
Burnley's resurgence has hit the skids. After three straight wins, they put in arguably their worst performance in weeks last weekend, losing 3-1 at home to Aston Villa. It was only a last-minute consolation goal that kept the scoreline bordering on respectable.
Betting pick: To win to nil? - Tottenham (+134) 1 unit
Only Norwich (22) have scored fewer goals than Burnley (32) this season. They've failed to score in four of their last eight away games and of Tottenham's last five home league games against sides currently in the bottom half, they've kept four clean sheets.
Player to watch: Son Heung-min
Son can still win the Golden Boot (Premier League's top scorer) and will fancy his chances of bagging some goals in the remaining two games. Burnley might offer some resistance but not for 90 minutes and if Kane doesn't find the net, Son surely will.
Crystal Palace (+266) at Aston Villa (+108) - 9:00 am ET
Score prediction: Aston Villa 2 - 2 Crystal Palace
Both teams are in with a chance of a top-10 finish and both teams have a game on Thursday before the season finale next Sunday. Villa have only won two of their last nine home games while Palace have only won one of their last 12 away games (a notable 2-0 win at Manchester City).
I'm going to sit on the fence a bit and go with a draw, something Palace have done 14 times this season. Villa's four league draws this season is the second-fewest and they've only drawn once in their last 13 games. But nine of their 17 home games have been decided by one goal (or drawn).
Betting pick: Total goals - Over 2.5 (-110) 1 unit
While I think the "both teams to score" bet is in play, at this stage of the season, we've seen games where teams just don't turn up and wind up losing three or four nil. Of Palace's 17 away games, nine have seen three or more goals and 11 of Villa's 17 home games have had three or more goals in them.
Player to watch: Ollie Watkins
After scoring 14 EPL goals last season, Watkins has only managed ten so far this year, but has missed more games, playing only 32 (compared to 37 last season). He's still on course to be Villa's top scorer for the second straight season and will want to finish the campaign strongly and secure his spot in England's June training camp.
Brighton (+170) at Leeds United (+165) - 9:00 am ET
Score prediction: Leeds United 1 - 1 Brighton
Leeds have slipped into the relegation zone following three straight defeats, albeit against teams currently in the top-4. All three games saw them go behind inside 15 minutes and their last two outings haven't been helped by idiotic tackles leading to red cards in each game. They'll need to start better and keep eleven players on the pitch if they are to take anything from this game.
Brighton beat Manchester United 4-0 last weekend, arguably their best ever EPL result, even if it came against a historically bad Manchester United team. After it looked like their season was going to fade away, they've won back-to-back games, scoring seven goals and conceding none.
Betting pick: Both teams to score - Yes (-131) 1.5 units
After scoring 29 goals in their first 33 games of the season, Brighton have now scored nine in their last three games. In 18 of Brighton's away games, both teams have scored on ten occasions. Leeds have just one goal in their last four games but have to take at least a point to keep their survival hopes alive and will have to push for a positive result.
Player to watch: Raphinha
Despite just one goal in his last 11 games, Raphinha remains Leeds top scorer this season with ten goals and they need him more than ever. He's shown he cares about their plight during the last two games, although he did appear to have an injury on Wednesday. Leeds might have to rely on him to keep them in the Premier League.
Leicester City (+104) at Watford (+277) - 9:00 am ET
Score prediction: Watford 0 - 2 Leicester City
Watford ended their losing streak at six with a goalless draw against Everton on Wednesday. In truth, it was a game they should've lost and needed keeper Ben Foster to secure them a point, especially as they failed to register a shot on target.
Leicester picked up their first league win in six league games, beating Norwich City 3-0 on Wednesday. Jamie Vardy made his first EPL start since March 05th and scored twice, although with a trip to Chelsea on Thursday, he may not start Sunday's game given his injury issues this season.
Betting pick: Leicester City team goals - Over 1.5 (-110) 1 unit
If Vardy starts the game, I'd be very confident in Leicester finding the net at least twice. In truth, even without Vardy, Watford doesn't look like a team that will be able to keep Leicester at bay for long. Watford have conceded 41 goals at home this season, which is the most in the league. Wednesday was their first home clean sheet this season and conceded two or more in their previous seven home games.
Player to watch: Harvey Barnes
Barnes notched two assists in midweek, and now has eight in the league this season to go along with four goals (29 games). He has a goal or assist in six of his last eight EPL starts and a strong finish to the season could see him work his way into the England international squad.
Manchester City (-255) at West Ham United (+721) - 9:00 am ET
Score prediction: West Ham United 1 - 3 Manchester City
Manchester City could win the league this weekend if Liverpool fails to match or better their result when they play on Tuesday. In reality, City only need three points from their remaining two games due to the huge swing in goal difference they've created by scoring 19 goals in their last four games.
West Ham bounced back from their Europa League disappointment by comprehensively beating Norwich City 4-0. That was the first time they scored more than two in a league game since New Year's Day, which was also when they last won away in the league.
Betting pick: Both teams to score - Yes (-118) 1 unit
Manchester City are ending the season with something of a defensive crisis. Walker and Dias are out for the remainder of the season and Laporte picked up an injury in midweek. But they're scoring for fun right now so any weakness at the back should be comfortably masked by their attacking brilliance.
Player to watch: Kevin de Bruyne
His four-goal performance against Wolves acted as a reminder of how good de Bruyne is and remains arguably the best player in the EPL right now. He's got a goal or assist in each of his last six EPL games, totaling six goals and four assists in that span. In his previous 11 league games against West Ham, he has three goals and five assists.
Norwich City (+645) at Wolves (-218) - 9:00 am ET
Score prediction: Wolves 2 - 0 Norwich City
Norwich are heading to the Championship with a whimper. While in previous seasons, teams have played with freedom after their relegation is confirmed and their results pick up, Norwich have lost their last two games 4-0 and 3-0. They've lost their last four games with an aggregate score of 12-0.
Wolves couldn't back up their comeback point at Chelsea last weekend with a positive result at home to Manchester City on Wednesday, losing 5-1. They've only picked up one point from their last five games and if they were facing anyone other than Norwich, I'd be more reluctant to back them to win.
Betting pick: Total corners under 10.5 & total bookings under 4.5 - (+110) 1 unit
This is one game I foresee as being a rather dull end-of-season game. They rank 10th and 17th in yellow cards, and 14th and 16th in corners. The referee for this one is Tony Harrington who has only officiated two Premier League games before and issued a total of four yellow cards.
Player to watch: Ruben Neves
Neves continues to be linked to a move away from Wolves after a stellar season. He's returned from injury and will want to finish the season strongly. He only has four goals and two assists this season but most of Wolves attacking play goes through Neves and he could be the difference-maker this weekend.
Brentford (+262) at Everton (+110) - 11:30 am ET
Score prediction: Everton 2 - 1 Brentford
After looking destined for relegation, seven points from their last three games has moved Everton two points away from the relegation zone. With two home games in the next five days, a win against Brentford or Crystal Palace on Thursday, coupled with Burnley or Leeds losing will guarantee their EPL survival.
Brentford have had an excellent first season in the Premier League. After being favorites for relegation preseason, they've still got an outside chance of a top-10 finish and their 3-0 at home to Southampton last weekend was their sixth in their last nine games.
Betting pick: Moneyline - Everton (+110) 1 unit
I'm not overly confident of this one but given Everton's need and the fact that a win might secure safety from relegation with a week to spare, I see them eeking out the win. Brentford won't be push-overs and the home side will need to fight for the three points, but they were unlucky not to have made it three straight wins in midweek and their only loss in the last six games came against Liverpool.
Player to watch: Richarlison
I backed him in midweek and he didn't score, but made it seven consecutive games with a shot on target and 26 shots in his last nine games. He's Everton's leading scorer with eight goals and a couple more before the season ends should help secure Everton Premier League football next season.
Monday, May 16th, 2022
Arsenal (-116) at Newcastle United (+365) - 3:00 pm ET
Score prediction: Newcastle United 1 - 1 Arsenal
Arsenal will need to bounce back from defeat at Tottenham on Thursday, in which they had to play most of the game with ten men after a contentious red card and a very soft penalty gave Tottenham the lead. They will need to win their remaining two games if they are to secure a top-4 finish.
Given Newcastle looked like favorites for relegation at Christmas, the fact they're now safe and have a chance to finish in the top-10 is a remarkable turnaround. The new owners spending big in January obviously helped and although they come into this game with back-to-back losses, they were against the league's top-2 and they had won their previous four games.
Betting pick: Total goals - Under 2.5 (+100) 1 unit
Arsenal have won their last six encounters with Newcastle, without conceding a goal. They know they will need a win but Newcastle are a much better team defensively than they were earlier in the season and all the ways I see the game playing out, I expect it to be a tight game. Maybe a 2-1 win either way if Arsenal have to push for a late winner but even then, there's no guarantee it wouldn't end 1-1.
Player to watch: Gabriel Martinelli
Martinelli hasn't scored a Premier League goal in his last ten games but did have assists in the two games prior to Thursday. Now would be an ideal time to find his goalscoring form and he did find the net in the reverse fixture.
Tuesday, May 17th, 2022
Liverpool (-271) at Southampton (+633) - 2:45 pm ET
Score prediction: Southampton 1 - 3 Liverpool
Southampton aren't mathematically safe but it'd need a minor miracle for them to go down. They've won just once in their last ten league games and it's difficult to see how they pull out a performance that could end Liverpool's slim title hopes.
Liverpool knows two wins in their remaining two games still won't be enough unless Manchester City slips up in their remaining fixtures. The issue with this game could be that Liverpool will want to try and run up the score to claw back some of the goal difference and at least give them a chance to win the title if Manchester City does falter.
Betting pick: Handicap - Liverpool -1.5 (+100) 1 unit
I mentioned in last week's article that Liverpool's away wins tend to be by one goal, despite how dominant they are. And Southampton's last five home games have been decided by the odd goal four times. But the other time was a 6-0 loss against Chelsea and they have been prone to taking a pasting from time to time. If Liverpool does decide to try and close the goal difference gap, we could see a similar scoreline.
Player to watch: Sadio Mane
Salah has been used sparingly in the league recently and Mane has stepped up, scoring three times in their last six games and eight times in 14 games this calendar year. Rumors abound of his departure this summer and I'm sure if he does depart, he'll want to at least go out on a high.
Parlays
Both teams to score: West Ham United/Manchester City, Aston Villa/Crystal Palace and Everton/Brentford (+511) 1 unit
Moneyline: Tottenham Hotspur, Wolves and Leicester City (+304) 1 unit
Good luck with those EPL bets and remember to bet responsibly!
