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Jamie Steed previews EPL Matchweek 14 of the 2022/23 season, starting on 10/29/2022. He previews each game from the English Premier League, picking bets and a player to watch out for in fantasy
We're offering up our favorite betting pick for each game along with a score prediction and will include a player to look out for in fantasy from each fixture. Before you read on, remember these essential things: Betting on sports should be fun. If you aren't having fun with it, stop. And never bet what you can't afford to lose.
It was a rough weekend for us with just two winners but a nice parlay win minimized the loss. We still nearly managed to turn a profit for the matchweek but an injury-time penalty (and a controversial one at that) in the final game of the slate denied us. Tough to take, but take it we must. We have something of a unique set of fixtures this weekend with eight games taking place on Saturday so let's see if we can get back to winning ways.
We've been cranking up the soccer content at RotoBaller too. We're still bringing you dedicated DFS and Fantasy Premier League content, on top of the weekly preview and betting content. Follow the team on Twitter (@LucidMediaDFS, @PhilOfSports, @EuanOrYouOut, @df_solutions, @Mark_Kieffer, and yours truly @Baseball_Jimbo), and reach out to any of us if you ever have any soccer questions or need advice on any of this.
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2022-23 EPL Betting Picks
- Match results: 53-63
- Total picks: 50-59-7
- Parlays: 4-16
- ROI: 95.54% (-4.26 units)
Saturday, October 29th, 2022
Manchester City (-331) at Leicester City (+904) 7:30 am ET
Score prediction: Leicester City 1 - 2 Manchester City
Leicester climbed out of the relegation zone with an emphatic 4-0 win at Wolves last weekend and they now have three consecutive clean sheets to go with their seven points during this unbeaten run. But, they now have their toughest challenge yet.
Manchester City has been incredible at home, winning all six games and scoring 27 goals. But away from home is a different story, with eight points from their five road games and nine goals scored. They have just one away clean sheet since the opening weekend's win at West Ham United and that was at the league's lowest scorers; Wolves.
Betting pick: Handicap - Leicester City +1.5 (+115) 0.75 units
I don't feel super confident about this one but Manchester City has just two wins from their five away games and Leicester hasn't lost at home by more than one goal this season. Getting out of the bottom three should give Leicester some added confidence and while I think they come up short of taking some points from the game, I don't think this will be a walkover for the champions.
Player to watch: Kevin de Bruyne
I'm not disputing Haaland's brilliance and he's in play every week. But 12 of his 17 EPL goals have come at home. Meanwhile, de Bruyne has five assists on the road (nine total) meaning he's created more than 50% of their away goals. The 1-0 defeat at Liverpool is the only away game in which he hasn't picked up an assist.
Tottenham (-148) at Bournemouth (+451) 10:00 am ET
Score prediction: Bournemouth 0 - 2 Tottenham
Bournemouth will feel hard done by after their 2-0 loss at West Ham United on Monday, their second straight defeat after going six games without a loss. They've now failed to score in seven of their 12 games and all five losses have seen them fail to find the net.
Tottenham also comes into this game following back-to-back defeats after their 2-1 loss at home to Newcastle last Sunday ended their 100% home record. After their first defeat of the season, they kept two clean sheets in their next two games and I expect them to revert back to a tight performance and hope their forwards can nick them a goal or two.
Betting pick: To get an assist - Son Heung-min (+200) 0.5 units and To win to nil - Tottenham (+157) 0.5 units.
I'm torn between these two picks so I'm going with and splitting my bet. I'll cover why Son is a great play below and after consecutive league defeats, I expect Antonio Conte to ensure Tottenham keep a clean sheet this weekend and they should have enough firepower to find a goal.
Player to watch: Son Heung-min
Tottenham's seven goals from set pieces are tied for most in the league, while Bournemouth's eight conceded from set pieces is a league-high. With Son on corner duty, even if he can't find a goal or assist in open play, he'll stand a great chance of getting an assist from a dead-ball situation.
Wolves (+247) at Brentford (+122) 10:00 am ET
Score prediction: Brentford 2 - 1 Wolves
Brentford has one win in their last six games, scoring just three goals in that run. They have picked up 11 points in their six home games with league-leaders Arsenal the only team to have gone to Brentford and left with all three points.
Like Brentford, Wolves lost 4-0 last weekend and after conceding just four goals in their first six games of the season, have now conceded 14 goals in their last six matches. They have only five goals scored and after failing to find a permanent replacement for Bruno Lage, have appointed Steve Davis as interim boss until 2023.
Betting pick: Moneyline - Brentford (+122) 1 unit
Wolves have only one point in six away games, have conceded more than one goal in four of them and scored just two goals on the road. Their only away clean sheet came at Bournemouth, the week after they'd lost 9-0 at Liverpool. Brentford has taken more points at home than any other team in the bottom half of the table.
Player to watch: Ivan Toney
Toney has eight goals so far this season and has been responsible for five of their last seven goals scored at home. He found the net in both matches against Wolves last season and is another striker who could secure a World Cup place in the England squad with a hot streak over the next few weeks.
Chelsea (+161) at Brighton (+192) 10:00 am ET
Score prediction: Brighton 0 - 1 Chelsea
Roberto De Zerbi is seeking his first win since taking over at Brighton, with just two points taken from his first five games. While his teams have a reputation for playing attacking football, they have scored just once in their last four games and all four goals scored under De Zerbi have been courtesy of Leandro Trossard.
This will be Graham Potter's first game back at Brighton following his move to Chelsea and while his replacement at Brighton has yet to taste victory, Chelsea has yet to lose since he took over. Chelsea has only scored six goals in their six away games, something they'll need to improve upon if they are to secure a top-four finish this season.
Betting pick: Full-time result and total goals - Chelsea win and under 3.5 goals (+225) 1 unit
Potter's five EPL games in charge of Chelsea have seen three or fewer goals in each of them whilst Brighton is finding goals hard to come by. I expect Chelsea to take the three points home but don't see there being many goals in this one.
Player to watch: Ben Chilwell
Given I expect a tight game, defenders seem like solid plays and in Chilwell, we get an attacking threat too. He was on corner duty last weekend and took the corner which led to Chelsea's penalty. He didn't feature in Chelsea's midweek Champions League game so is a good bet to start on Saturday.
Southampton (+315) at Crystal Palace (-104) 10:00 am ET
Score prediction: Crystal Palace 2 - 0 Southampton
Palace's three-game unbeaten run came to a crashing halt with a 3-0 defeat at Everton last weekend. They are still without a win on their travels but have picked up ten points from their six home games and Everton is the only team outside to top-5 in the league to have beaten Palace this season.
After losing four straight games, Southampton now comes into this game unbeaten in their last three league games following last weekend's 1-1 draw against Arsenal. Goals are still hard to come by, especially away from home with just four goals scored in six away games (two coming against Leicester City who has the second-worst defensive record this season).
Betting pick: Single game parlay - Under 12.5 total corners, both teams 1+ yellow cards and over 2.5 total cards (+100) 1 unit
Palace averages just 3.54 corners per game (second-fewest total) while Southampton averages 4.33 and just 3.33 in away games. The most corners Palace has taken in any home game is five. Palace has received at least one yellow card in every game so far and Southampton has received at least one in five of their six away games. The referee is Michael Salisbury who has shown 24 yellow cards in five games.
Player to watch: Eberechi Eze
Eze is starting to shine and fulfill the potential he flashed in parts last season. He's scored in his last two home games and his only goal last campaign came against Southampton. He also leads the team in shot-creating actions with 35, four more than star player and top scorer Wilfried Zaha.
Aston Villa (+348) at Newcastle United (-116) 10:00 am ET
Score prediction: Newcastle United 1 - 0 Aston Villa
Newcastle moved into the top-4 with their 2-1 win at Tottenham last week. Since losing their only game of the season at Liverpool, they've gone seven games unbeaten and only Manchester City has managed to score more than one at Newcastle this season.
Villa wasted little time in appointing Unai Emery as manager, replacing Steven Gerrard who was sacked last week. It's a bit of a crapshoot with a new manager in the early days but his stint at Arsenal didn't go well and he had a reputation for some rather dull football so it'll be interesting to see how he gets Villa playing in the next few games.
Betting pick: Half-time/full-time - Newcastle United/Newcastle United (+214) 0.5 units
With the uncertainty around Villa at the moment, I'm going to play things a little safe and look at a higher-odds pick with a smaller stake. At home, Newcastle has only conceded one first-half goal and is yet to trail at the break. Villa only has two goals away from home in the first half of games and just one in the second half. If they go behind early, it's hard to see them getting anything from the game.
Player to watch: Kieran Trippier
I don't foresee this being an easy game for Newcastle and Trippier on set-pieces could be a difference-maker. Only Bournemouth has conceded more set-piece goals than Villa while Newcastle leads the league in corners taken (89). Trippier has taken 61 of them.
Everton (+219) at Fulham (+138) 12:30 pm ET
Score prediction: Fulham 1 - 1 Everton
Fulham made it back-to-back wins with a 3-2 victory at Leeds last week and have now scored eight goals in their last three games. The 44 total goals in their matches are the third most of any team this season (22 scored and 22 conceded).
Everton's 3-0 win against Crystal Palace ended a three-game losing streak but away from home, they have just one win and five goals scored (six games). They have been solid defensively and the four teams to have conceded fewer than Everton's 12 this season are all in the top-5 of the league table.
Betting pick: Highest scoring half - Second half (-110) 1 unit
This season, Fulham's games have seen 27 second-half goals and 17 first-half goals. At home, it's 13 second-half goals and 11 first-half goals. Everton's games have seen 14 second-half goals and nine first-half goals. Away from home, it's nine second-half goals and four first-half goals. It certainly feels like the second half will see the majority of goals.
Player to watch: Andreas Pereira
Whilst Aleksandar Mitrovic continues to take the headlines with his eight goals scored, Pereira leads the team with four assists and 41 shot-creating actions. In what is a theme for this week, Periera is also Fulham's set-piece taker and they are tied with the most set-piece goals this season.
Leeds United (+771) at Liverpool (-282) 2:45 pm ET
Score prediction: Liverpool 2 - 1 Leeds United
Liverpool's season keeps plunging downwards and last week's defeat at Nottingham Forest is certainly the lowest point so far. As disappointing as they've been, they are still unbeaten at home with four wins and two draws while keeping three clean sheets in the six games.
Leeds is slumping and last week's defeat means they enter this weekend on an eight-game winless streak. Away from home, they have just one point in five games, no clean sheets and conceded two or more in four of the five games.
Betting pick: Winning margin - Liverpool by one goal (+358) 0.5 units
The odds in this game aren't very appealing and as much as I think Liverpool win the game, their form hasn't been anywhere near where I'd be confident backing them to do so. I'll go with a small stake and back them to win by one goal. At home, other than their 9-0 win against Bournemouth, Liverpool's three wins have been by one goal and they have two draws so a close game seems probable.
Player to watch: Mo Salah
Salah has faced Leeds on four occasions, scoring six goals. In the two home games against them, Salah has five goals and one assist. This isn't the same Mo Salah as we've seen in recent seasons, nor is it the same Liverpool or Leeds but if there's one team he'll want to face right now, it'll probably be Leeds.
Sunday, October 30th, 2022
Nottingham Forest (+1538) at Arsenal (-502) 10:00 am ET
Score prediction: Arsenal 3 - 1 Nottingham Forest
Arsenal's winning run ended with a 1-1 draw at Southampton last Sunday. It was a game they should have won but for the second straight week, looked a bit tired in the closing stages and if it wasn't for a Patrick Bamford missed penalty the week before, they'd come into this without a win since October 09th.
Nottingham Forest caused the shock of the season so far, beating Liverpool 1-0 at home last weekend. They still remain bottom of the table and are without a win on the road, scoring just once in their six away games.
Betting pick: Both teams to score/total goals - Yes and over 2.5 (+151) 0.5 units
Arsenal has won all five of their home games in the league, but has conceded seven goals in those games and is yet to keep a clean sheet at home. They are averaging 2.8 goals a game at home so I'm expecting a similar game to what we've seen from them so far.
Player to watch: Bukayo Saka
Saka has four goals and four assists in 11 games so far and takes corners and penalties which gives him multiple routes to fantasy points. He's in great form and hasn't gone two straight games without a goal or assist since the first three games of the season. He had neither last Sunday.
West Ham United (+401) at Manchester United (-142) 12:15 pm ET
Score prediction: Manchester United 2 - 1 West Ham United
Manchester United needed an injury-time equalizer to secure a point at Chelsea last weekend but that has extended their unbeaten streak to four games and their only blemish in their last nine league games came away at Manchester City (6-3).
West Ham moved into the top-1o with a controversial 2-0 win against Bournemouth on Monday. But it's their away from which is poor, with just four points and three goals scored in their six away games.
Betting pick: Total goals range - 2-3 goals (+115) 0.75 units
Manchester United has played five home games, in which there have been two or three goals scored in three of the games. There's an average of 2.4 goals in their home games. West Ham has just one clean sheet in their six away games and however this game plays out, nearly all likely options have two or three goals scored in them.
Player to watch: Marcus Rashford
With Christiano Ronaldo out in the cold and throwing temper tantrums on a weekly basis, the burden for goals is on Rashford's shoulders. He's still looking to book a place on the plane to Qatar as part of England's World Cup squad and with three goals and two assists in 11 games (ten starts), he'll want a spell of good form in the next few games to secure his place on the plane.
Parlays
Total goals: Fulham/Everton, Crystal Palace/Southampton & Brentford/Wolves over 1.5 goals (+134) 2 units
To score anytime: Mo Salah (Liverpool), Eberechi Eze (Crystal Palace) and Ivan Toney (Brentford) (+2361) 0.5 units
Good luck with those EPL bets and remember to bet responsibly!
