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We're offering up our favorite betting pick for each game along with a score prediction and will include a player to look out for in fantasy from each fixture. Before you read on, remember these essential things: Betting on sports should be fun. If you aren't having fun with it, stop. And never bet what you can't afford to lose.
A small profit from the weekend made it back-to-back winning weeks. West Ham United could only manage a draw to deny us a big parlay and Newcastle United needed one more corner to give us another nice profitable pick. Still, a winning week overall and we go into the midweek fixtures in decent shape. Due to the 48-hour turnaround, things are a little abbreviated this week but it's still fully researched and all nine games are previewed.
We've been cranking up the soccer content at RotoBaller too. We're still bringing you dedicated DFS and Fantasy Premier League content, on top of the weekly preview and betting content. Follow the team on Twitter (@LucidMediaDFS, @PhilOfSports, @EuanOrYouOut, @df_solutions, @Mark_Kieffer, and yours truly @Baseball_Jimbo), and reach out to any of us if you ever have any soccer questions or need advice on any of this.
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2022-23 EPL Betting Picks
- Match results: 47-50
- Total picks: 45-47-6
- Parlays: 3-14
- ROI: 98.50% (-1.17 units)
Tuesday, October 18th, 2022
Nottingham Forest (+737) at Brighton (-236) 2:30 pm ET
Score prediction: Brighton 2 - 1 Nottingham Forest
Betting pick: Both teams to score/winner - Yes & Brighton (+242) 0.5 units
Brighton is yet to win or keep a clean sheet under De Zerbi (three games) and has failed to score in back-to-back games. But they face a Forest team that has conceded the second most goals this season (23). I expect a home win, but not as easy as the bookmakers seem to think it will be.
Player to watch: Leandro Trossard
Trossard got the De Zerbi reign off to a flying start, scoring a hat trick in their 3-3 draw at Liverpool. But things have been bleak since and Brighton will need their Belgian international to fire again if they are to secure their first win under the new Head Coach.
Wolves (+256) at Crystal Palace (+127) - 3:15 pm ET
Score prediction: Crystal Palace 1 - 0 Wolves
Betting pick: Single game parlay - Total goals under 3.5, Crystal Palace under 6.5 corners & Wolves under 6.5 corners (+115) 1 unit
Both teams are struggling for goals with Wolves the lowest scorers (four goals) and Palace with four goals in their last five games. Palace has also yet to take more than five corners in a game while Wolves have failed to top six in any match. I expect this to be a rather grim and dull game.
Player to watch: Wilfried Zaha
Zaha is Palace's top scorer this season with four goals, three coming at home. He hasn't scored in his last four games but managed to find the net in both games against Wolves last season.
Wednesday, October 19th, 2022
Southampton (+157) at Bournemouth (+178) - 2:30 pm ET
Score prediction: Bournemouth 2 - 2 Southampton
Betting pick: Both teams to score and total goals - Yes & over 2.5 (+134) 0.5 units
Southampton ended a run of four straight defeats with a 1-1 draw against West Ham but remains in the relegation. Since losing 9-0 at Liverpool, Bournemouth has picked up 10 points in six games (two wins and four draws). Three of those six games have seen both teams score and at least three total goals.
Player to watch: Dominic Solanke
Solanke has two goals and three assists in eight games this season (seven starts). He led the team with 29 goals last season in their promotion campaign and is beginning to look like he can lead Bournemouth to a successful season.
Chelsea (-144) at Brentford (+424) - 2:30 pm ET
Score prediction: Brentford 1 - 2 Chelsea
Betting pick: Total goals range - 2-3 goals (+112) 1 unit
Chelsea's 100% record under Graham Potter continued with a 2-0 win at Aston Villa on Sunday and that's now six straight EPL games in which there have been two or three goals and all five of their games under Potter's stewardship. Three of Brentford's five home games have seen two or three goals in them.
Player to watch: Raheem Sterling
Mason Mount has come to life under Potter but Sterling hasn't scored since August and was deployed as a wing-back on Sunday to start the game. He's in danger of losing regular playing time if he doesn't begin to find some consistency in the coming weeks and will be keen to get back to playing as a winger and scoring again this week.
West Ham United (+609) at Liverpool (-222) - 2:30 pm ET
Score prediction: Liverpool 3 - 0 West Ham United
Betting pick: Score and win - Mo Salah and Liverpool (+150) 1 unit
As we predicted, Liverpool was able to take something from Sunday's game with Manchester City and they ended the champions' unbeaten start to the season with a 1-0 win. They remain unbeaten at home and Salah now faces the Premier League team he has more goals against than anyone else (nine goals and three assists in ten appearances).
Player to watch: Mo Salah
As mentioned, Salah has an amazing record against West Ham and following his seven-minute hat trick against Rangers last Wednesday, he scored the winner on Sunday. Salah has scored in four of the five home games against West Ham since joining Liverpool.
Everton (+433) at Newcastle United (-145) - 2:30 pm ET
Score prediction: Newcastle United 1 - 0 Everton
Betting pick: To win to nil - Newcastle United (+198) 1 unit
Newcastle picked up a solid point at Manchester United on Sunday, battling to a 0-0 draw. They're now unbeaten in their last five games and have conceded the fewest goals in the EPL this season (nine). Only three teams have scored fewer than Everton (eight).
Player to watch: Callum Wilson
Wilson has been limited to six games this season due to injury but has three goals this campaign and has started the last three games. He's still in with a shout of making the England World Cup squad and scored a brace in both games against Everton since joining Newcastle.
Tottenham (+201) at Manchester United (+138) - 3:15 pm ET
Score prediction: Manchester United 1 - 2 Tottenham
Betting pick: To win either half - Tottenham (-110) 1 unit
Tottenham maintained their 100% home record on Saturday, beating Everton 2-0 and comes into this game with an extra day of rest after Manchester United played Sunday. United has scored just six home goals (four games) and Tottenham seems generously priced. I expect they will at least outscore the home side in one 45-minute period.
Player to watch: Lucas Moura
Richarlison left Saturday's game with an injury and Dejan Kulusevski also missed out through injury. That might open up a spot for Moura to make his first start of the season and if he does, he could make a sneaky cheaper option for those playing DFS. But I'm not confident he does start so be prepared to pivot.
Thursday, October 20th, 2022
Aston Villa (+161) at Fulham (+180) - 2:30 pm ET
Score prediction: Fulham 2 - 1 Aston Villa
Betting pick: Draw no bet - Fulham (+103) 1 unit
While Fulham has struggled of late with three defeats in their last five games, their only home loss of the season came against Newcastle when they had to play over 80 minutes with ten men. Villa has yet to win away from home, scoring just three goals in their five road games.
Player to watch: Aleksandar Mitrovic
Mitrovic returned from injury to score on Saturday and now has seven goals this season. The only home game he failed to score in was the defeat against Newcastle, in which he limped off injured after 36 minutes.
Leeds United (+241) at Leicester City (+120) - 3:15 pm ET
Score prediction: Leicester City 1 - 1 Leeds United
Betting pick: Draw no bet - Leeds United (+147) 0.5 units
Leicester scuffled along to a goalless draw at home to Crystal Palace while Leeds United took Arsenal to the limit on Sunday, eventually losing 1-0 after missing a second-half penalty. Leicester will have to make do without top scorer James Maddison through suspension and despite not winning in their last six games, Leeds just looks like a better team right now.
Player to watch: Harvey Barnes
As mentioned, Maddison is set to miss out and Leicester will be desperate for some sort of creative spark from somewhere. Barnes is the only other player who has at least shown glimpses of that with two goals this season.
Parlays
Both teams to score: Bournemouth/Southampton, Fulham/Aston Villa, Leicester City/Leeds United (+437) 1 unit
Good luck with those EPL bets and remember to bet responsibly!
