EPL Betting Picks and Game Previews for Matchday 9: English Premier League

The EPL season rolls on and we're bringing you our weekly article looking at betting picks and predictions for all games. Matchday 9 kicks off on Friday, October 25 with Leicester City hosting Nottingham Forest. It culminates on Sunday, October 27 when Liverpool visits Arsenal.

As we do every week, we'll offer a preview of all the games. We'll predict the outcome, give a score prediction, and pick our favorite play for all fixtures. Before you read on, remember these essential things: betting on sports should be fun. If you aren't having fun with it, stop. And never bet what you can't afford to lose.

We're bringing you more soccer content than ever before at RotoBaller. There are FPL, UCL, and DFS articles every week, along with our weekly betting picks and game previews article, all of which can be found here. Follow the team on X (@EuanFPL, @TheFPLManual, @df_solutions, @BellRoto, and yours truly @Baseball_Jimbo), and reach out to any of us if you ever have any soccer questions.

Matchday 8 Recap

We had our best weekend of the season on Matchday 8. Six correct results, seven correct over/under plays, and nine right selections in the 'both teams to score' market. Unfortunately, we still only hit one parlay but it was a profitable weekend and moved us into the black on the season.

Newcastle United missed multiple chances and a single goal from the Geordies would've bagged us a perfect 10 for both teams to score plays. That could be a sign as it was Matchday 9 last season when we correctly predicted all 10 results and bagged a monster parlay.

WHAT. A. WEEKEND. We end #EPL matchday 9 with a correct score and hit;

🤑BTTS parlay (+497)
🤑O/U parlay (+423)
🤑Results parlay (+297)

A perfect 10-for-10 on match predictions which would have netted odds of +77811

Matchday 10 predictions come out Thursday on @RotoBaller.com https://t.co/MXqQoYK6UO

— Jamie Steed (@Baseball_Jimbo) October 23, 2023

Friday, October 25, 2024

Leicester City (+200) vs. Nottingham Forest (+145) - 3:00 p.m. EDT

Leicester's comeback win made it consecutive league victories and Arsenal are the only side to beat them since Matchday 4. They also extended their record of scoring in every game. Forest ended their three-game winless streak on Monday and have now lost just once in their eight EPL games.

Score prediction: Leicester City 1 – 1 Nottingham Forest

Leicester's four home games have totaled eight goals (four for and four against). Aston Villa's the only team to have scored more than once at Leicester and that includes the home team. Forest's four away games have also totaled eight goals and they've yet to lose on their travels.

Given only one of Leicester's home games has had more than two goals and the same goes for Forest's away games, I'm taking under 2.5 total goals. I'm also playing the 'both teams to score' in this game as a bit of a hedge given it's the opening game of the weekend.

Saturday, October 26, 2024

Aston Villa (-110) vs. Bournemouth (+280) - 10:00 a.m. EDT

Villa moved back into the top four with their win. Only Arsenal has managed to beat them in any competition this season as Unai Emery continues his record start as Villa manager. Bournemouth became the first team to beat Arsenal this season and the first to defeat the Gunners in a home game in 2024.

Today was Unai Emery's 40th Premier League win as Villa manager, becoming only the 4th manager to achieve that number of wins in the competition for the club.

Emery achieved 40 wins in 19 less games than John Gregory did, who was the previous record holder for the club 📈 #avfc pic.twitter.com/O5bxftwceP

— Aston Villa Statto (@AVFCStatto) October 19, 2024

Score prediction: Aston Villa 2 – 1 Bournemouth

As impressive as Bournemouth's win last weekend was, they needed 40 minutes against ten men before scoring. They have won just once away from home (four games). Villa managed to rest some players in their Champions League tie and I expect them to win, although Bournemouth will likely score.

Brentford (-145) vs. Ipswich Town (+360) - 10:00 a.m. EDT

Brentford suffered a fourth defeat of the season and third in their last five games. All three losses were despite the Bees scoring first. Ipswich's home loss against Everton would have been a big disappointment and they have yet to taste victory in the league this season.

Score prediction: Brentford 3 – 0 Ipswich Town

All four of Brentford's losses have been away from home. They've taken 10 points from their four home games and scored 11 goals in the process. No team has scored more at home and they should win this game comfortably. Brentford are priced too low to win this game.

Brighton (-170) vs. Wolves (+425) - 10:00 a.m. EDT

Brighton's impressive win at Newcastle saw them move into fifth place. Their 4-2 defeat at Chelsea remains their only blemish this season. Wolves remained bottom of the table and still only have one point following their last-minute heartbreak. Things could take an upward turn for Wolves.

I mentioned at the start of the season during the FPL previews that the Wolves had a brutal start to the season. I expected things to get better after their first eight games. I didn't expect Brighton to be fifth at this point but I do still believe Wolves will start climbing up the table.

Score prediction: Brighton 2 – 2 Wolves

Despite their struggles, Wolves have scored in every match since blanking in their opening game of the season. Three of Brighton's four home games have had a goal at both ends, with both teams scoring twice in the last two. To play it safe, I'm playing both teams to score which seems well-priced.

Manchester City (-1000) vs. Southampton (+1900) - 10:00 a.m. EDT

Although they have been riding their luck a bit, City keeps finding ways to win games. Their last league defeat came on December 6, 2023; 32 games ago. Southampton's loss against Leicester leaves them winless and already staring relegation in the face. Things don't get any easier for the Saints.

Score prediction: Manchester City 4 – 0 Southampton

All signs point to a big home win. City have scored at least two in all four home games and Southampton's conceded the second most goals in the league this season (18). I also expect City to keep their first clean sheet since the opening game of the season in what should be a comfortable win.

Everton (+175) vs. Fulham (+165) - 12:30 p.m. EDT

After losing their first four games of the season, Everton has now gone four games without defeat. They've also kept back-to-back clean sheets. Fulham's now suffered back-to-back defeats and conceded three goals in each of them. Although they had chances to take something from both games.

Score prediction: Everton 1 – 1 Fulham

While Fulham have conceded three goals in each of their last two games, they were against Manchester City and Aston Villa. They had conceded just five goals in their previous six games. Fulham has the second-best xGA (expected goals against) in the league.

* courtesy of WhoScored.com

The Toffees conceded at least three in each of their first four games of the season. Since then, they've conceded just two goals in four games. These two managed just one goal in their two contests last season and I'll be playing under 2.5 goals this weekend.

Sunday, October 27, 2024

Chelsea (-130) vs. Newcastle United (+290) - 10:00 a.m. EDT

Chelsea's unbeaten run came to an end after six games. The only two sides to defeat them are the current top two. Newcastle have now gone four games without a win and managed just two goals in that time. They've only conceded eight goals but also only scored eight.

Score prediction: Chelsea 2 – 1 Newcastle United

Given the only two sides to have beaten Chelsea this season, they seem too low-priced to win this weekend. Newcastle's got the biggest difference between their xGA and goals conceded, suggesting they've been lucky defensively. It's difficult to see anything but a home win.

Crystal Palace (+310) vs. Tottenham Hotspur (-130) - 10:00 a.m. EDT

Palace's third straight defeat leaves them in the relegation zone, without a win, and with the fewest goals scored in the league (five). The pressure is mounting on Head Coach Oliver Glasner. Tottenham got back to winning ways and scored at least twice in a fourth consecutive game.

🚨🇦🇹 𝐁𝐑𝐄𝐀𝐊𝐈𝐍𝐆 | Oliver Glasner's position at Crystal Palace is under 'mounting pressure'

His fate is expected to be determined by results before the next international break, reports @guardian_sport.

Next 3 league games: Spurs (H), Wolves (A), Fulham (H). pic.twitter.com/X1dP5T8dOT

— EuroFoot (@eurofootcom) October 22, 2024

Score prediction: Crystal Palace 1 – 3 Tottenham Hotspur

Tottenham's weakness is defensively but Palace is the least likeliest side to capitalise on that. They could still score but even if they do, it's difficult to see a scenario in which Palace manages to get something from this game. An away win is too well-priced to ignore and I'm also playing over 2.5 goals.

Palace have blanked three times in four home games. That might make 'both teams to not score' seem like an appealing play too. But we've seen Tottenham leak goals. Even if Palace don't score, they could still lose 3-0 so there are more likely routes to us seeing at least three goals scored

West Ham United (+195) vs. Manchester United (+130) - 10:00 a.m. EDT

West Ham's disappointing start to the season got worse with their 4-1 defeat. Manager Julen Lopetegui is coming under pressure from some quarters. Manchester United managed to ease the pressure on their boss, Erik ten Hag, with their come-from-behind win.

Score prediction: West Ham United 1 – 1 Manchester United

Manchester United having a long and tricky trip to Turkey on Thursday wouldn't have helped their preparation. West Ham's stuttering form makes it difficult to trust them to capitalize on that. This is a game I would look to avoid if possible with both teams finding the net looking the likeliest outcome.

Arsenal (+140) vs. Liverpool (+185) - 12:30 p.m. EDT

The game of the weekend sees Arsenal seeking to bounce back from their surprise defeat at Bournemouth. They'll have to do without a handful of starters as injuries and a suspension have reduced their options this weekend. Liverpool will look to cement their title credentials with a win.

Most xG created in the Premier League this season:

◉ 18.03 - Liverpool
◎ 17.69 - Tottenham
◎ 17.24 - Chelsea

Fewest xG conceded in the Premier League this season:

◉ 8.40 - Liverpool
◎ 8.96 - Fulham
◎ 9.26 - Nottingham Forest#LFC top both charts. ⚖️ pic.twitter.com/4HAQyIIagJ

— WhoScored.com (@WhoScored) October 21, 2024

Score prediction: Arsenal 1 – 2 Liverpool

William Saliba, Jurriën Timber, Tomiyasu Takehiro, and Riccardo Calafiori. That is a defense that would have considerable success in the EPL. It's also the four defenders Arsenal will likely be without this week. Add in Martin Ødegaard and possibly Bukayo Saka as absentees and Arsenal's squad is stretched.

While we could see a 'backs to the wall' type display from Arsenal, missing Saliba would make that much more difficult. I can certainly see all three outcomes in this game. Instead of playing the moneyline, I'm going to back both teams scoring. That's occurred in the last four league meetings between these two.

Betting Picks

The table below gives the odds for each game's three main plays (moneyline, total goals, and both teams to score). My favorite pick from each game is highlighted if you are looking to build a parlay (which I will be playing and tracking).

Good luck with those FPL teams and EPL bets. Remember to bet responsibly!

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