RADIO
The EPL season rolls on and we're bringing you our weekly article looking at betting picks and predictions for all games. Matchday 8 kicks off on Saturday, October 19 with Tottenham Hotspur hosting West Ham United. It culminates on Monday, October 21 when Crystal Palace visits Nottingham Forest.
As we do every week, we'll offer a preview of all the games. We'll predict the outcome, give a score prediction, and pick our favorite play for all fixtures. Before you read on, remember these essential things: betting on sports should be fun. If you aren't having fun with it, stop. And never bet what you can't afford to lose.
We're bringing you more soccer content than ever before at RotoBaller. There are FPL, UCL, and DFS articles every week, along with our weekly betting picks and game previews article, all of which can be found here. Follow the team on X (@EuanFPL, @TheFPLManual, @df_solutions, @BellRoto, and yours truly @Baseball_Jimbo), and reach out to any of us if you ever have any soccer questions.
Featured Promo: Get any full-season Props Premium Pass for 10% off using code BALLER. Win more with our two new Props Optimizer tools -- one for PrizePicks Props, and one for Sportsbook Betting Props. Find optimal prop bets and get our recommended picks daily! Go Premium, Win More!
Matchday 7 Recap
Matchday 7 feels like an eternity ago. That's what international breaks do to you. It was a profitable weekend with our first moneyline parlay coming in. We got the slice of luck we've needed with Anthony Gordon missing a penalty, meaning Newcastle's clash with Everton ended in a draw.
We got more right than we got wrong last weekend but that was still our only winner. Brentford's bonkers game against Wolves emphatically ended our chance to hit an "over/under" parlay. Arsenal and Manchester City's inability to keep a clean sheet hurt us, too. As always, we go again this week.
Saturday, October 19, 2024
Tottenham Hotspur (-205) vs. West Ham United (+475) - 7:30 a.m. EDT
Tottenham will be eager to bounce back from its disappointing defeat at Brighton. It managed to set an unwanted record in the process. West Ham emphatically beat Ipswich to secure only its second win of the season. A third win here would see the Hammers leapfrog Spurs in the table.
10 - This is the 10th time that Tottenham have lost a Premier League game in which they led by 2+ goals, the first club to hit double figures for this, and at least three more than any other side in the competition's history. Spursy. pic.twitter.com/9Xe0zx7ntq
— OptaJoe (@OptaJoe) October 6, 2024
Tottenham Hotspur 3 – 1 West Ham United
This fixture has historically seen plenty of action. West Ham is unbeaten on its travels but only scored four goals in the three games, conceding just two. Six of its last eight league meetings saw both teams score, and that has happened in five of each team's seven EPL games so far.
Five of Tottenham's seven league games have seen at least three goals scored, averaging two goals scored a game. If both teams score and the home side finds the net twice, it makes playing the over and both teams to score as ideal plays. Both teams scoring is my favorite play.
Fulham (+140) vs. Aston Villa (+185) - 10:00 a.m. EDT
Fulham created more than enough chances to take at least a point against Manchester City a fortnight ago. Adama Traore's profligacy cost it a possible win. Villa's now drawn back-to-back games but will take a five-game EPL unbeaten run into this weekend.
Man City (1.58) 3-2 (2.36) Fulham
— The xG Philosophy (@xGPhilosophy) October 5, 2024
Fulham 1 – 1 Aston Villa
Fulham's taken seven points from a possible nine at home. It has scored six and conceded three goals. Villa's taken seven points from a possible nine away from home. It has scored six and conceded four goals. This looks like it will be a very close contest.
Villa is dealing with some injuries. Fulham showed it can compete with the big teams, with narrow defeats against both Manchester clubs and a win against Newcastle. I'm going to back a draw in this game given how tight it looks on paper. The odds will provide a nice boost to the parlay.
Ipswich Town (+135) vs. Everton (+195) - 10:00 a.m. EDT
Ipswich saw its four-game unbeaten run ended by West Ham. The problem for Ipswich is it drew all four of those games during its unbeaten stretch. After losing its first four games of the season, Everton's now avoided defeat in three straight games. Although it won only once.
Ipswich Town 2 – 0 Everton
This is arguably the toughest game of the weekend to predict. I'm only making one play on this game and that is a home win. Ipswich's survival hopes will rely on winning these sorts of games; at home to a fellow struggler. And its home results haven't been too bad so far.
The Tractor Boys drew with Fulham and Aston Villa. They lost against Liverpool 2-0 but kept the Reds at bay for an hour. Everton's only away point came at newly promoted Leicester City and it shipped in eight goals on its travels (three games).
Manchester United (-145) vs. Brentford (+330) - 10:00 a.m. EDT
Draws at Porto and Aston Villa before the international break helped keep Erik Ten Hag with a job. But he continues to be on thin ice with Manchester United now making its worst start to a Premier League campaign. Brentford has been making history of its own.
8 - With eight points (W2 D2 L3), this is Manchester United's lowest tally in their opening seven matches of a league season since 1989-90 (7), when they went on to finish 13th under Alex Ferguson - his lowest league finish in charge of the club. Meagre. pic.twitter.com/RF3Z1iBrOo
— OptaJoe (@OptaJoe) October 6, 2024
After becoming the first team in EPL history to score in the first minute in three straight games, Brentford had to wait until the second minute before scoring against Wolves. It was notable that it failed to win any of those three games after scoring inside 60 seconds.
The first team in @premierleague history to score in the first minute in three consecutive games
Brentford Football Club ⚡️
— Brentford FC (@BrentfordFC) September 28, 2024
Manchester United 2 – 1 Brentford
No one has kept more clean sheets than Andre Onana (five) this season. However, United's 12.18 xGA (expected goals against) is only the 12th lowest in the league. The 26 goals (13 for and 13 against) in Brentford's seven games are a league high. Both teams to score is the best play here.
Newcastle United (-105) vs. Brighton (+245) - 10:00 a.m. EDT
Anthony Gordon's missed penalty against his former club cost Newcastle the chance to end its three-game winless run. It has yet to lose at home. Brighton's comeback victory against Tottenham ended a four-game winless run and it is the only side in the top 10 to have conceded 10 goals.
Newcastle United 2 – 3 Brighton
Newcastle's -6.65 xGDiff (difference between goals conceded and expected goals against) is the highest in the league. Both teams have scored twice in each of Brighton's last three games. This game looks set to see goals, so we're taking the over 2.5 total goals in our parlay.
Southampton (+125) vs. Leicester City (+205) - 10:00 a.m. EDT
Southampton threatened to cause an upset against Arsenal last time out. In what has become an all too familiar story, gifted goals saw it slip to a defeat. Leicester picked up its first win of the season two weeks ago and only Arsenal (courtesy of two late goals) has beaten the Foxes in their last four games.
Southampton 1 – 3 Leicester City
The second fixture between two of the promoted sides is a big one for the Saints. Their only point came in the first such fixture when they drew with Ipswich. Leicester won both fixtures in the Championship last season in impressive style. A 4-1 win at St. Mary's was bettered by a 5-0 home win.
Leicester has looked the more impressive of these two teams so far. And with last season's wins so definitive, I'm backing the away team here. I'm also playing both teams to score. It's occurred in six of Leicester's seven games and four of Southampton's last five games.
Bournemouth (+390) vs. Arsenal (-155) - 12:30 p.m. EDT
Bournemouth's defeat two weeks ago was its third in four games. Only a victory against Southampton prevented the Cherries from losing four straight for the first time since October 2023. Arsenal will be looking to keep its unbeaten start to the season intact despite some injury concerns.
Bournemouth 0 – 2 Arsenal
Arsenal only managed to score five goals in its first three away games. It did keep a clean sheet in two of them. Bournemouth's three home games have seen a total of seven goals. Two of the three games saw less than three goals. Under 2.5 total goals is the best play in this game.
Sunday, October 20, 2024
Wolves (+750) vs. Manchester City (-330) - 9:00 a.m. EDT
Wolves come into this weekend bottom of the table. It had an incredibly difficult set of fixtures to start the season, which eases after Sunday. City had to ride its luck when beating Fulham but remained unbeaten with a 3-2 win. It leads the league in goals scored (17).
Wolves 1 – 3 Manchester City
I expect Wolves to put up a bit of a fight and it did win this fixture last season. I also expect Wolves to start winning games in the coming weeks and get out of the relegation zone by the next international break. However, I don't expect it to get anything from this game.
As expected, there's very little value in backing City to win. Instead, we'll play for goals. Both teams have scored in Wolves' last six games, five of them seeing three or more total goals. City's conceded eight goals in seven games and both teams have scored in their last six EPL games.
Liverpool (-150) vs. Chelsea (+360) - 11:30 a.m. EDT
Liverpool reeled off a third straight win after its shock defeat against Nottingham Forest. It sits atop the table and leads the league with only two goals conceded. Chelsea suffered a shock result against Nottingham Forest itself, being held to a 1-1 draw. It did extend its unbeaten streak to six games.
Liverpool 1 – 1 Chelsea
These teams are very familiar with each other, having faced off seven times in two years between February 2022 and 2024. In recent history, their games have been close and with few goals. In their last 11 contests in all competitions, there have only been three or more goals twice.
Six of their last seven matchups were tied after 90 minutes and I do like the draw here. However, I'm going to back both teams scoring as a safe pick. Chelsea has scored 10 goals in its three away games. Liverpool's been excellent defensively but has yet to be tested and the two sides have no shortage of attacking options.
Monday, October 21, 2024
Nottingham Forest (+130) vs. Crystal Palace (+215) - 3:00 p.m. EDT
Forest's impressive start to the season continued with its draw at Chelsea. It has drawn four of its seven games so far and is yet to win at home. Palace finds itself in the relegation zone and without a win. It hasn't been able to replace the productivity of Michael Olise.
Ahead of the season, Crystal Palace’s average end-of-season point tally across the 10,000 Opta supercomputer simulations was 52.7.
That’s now dropped to 41.1 after their poor start to 2024-25, a fall of 11.6 points and the largest negative difference among all 20 Premier League… pic.twitter.com/vFTE1yS37Z
— Opta Analyst (@OptaAnalyst) October 16, 2024
Nottingham Forest 1 – 0 Crystal Palace
This looks like it will be a low-scoring affair. Forest's 2-2 draw with Brighton is the only game in which there have been more than two goals. Four of Palace's seven games have had under three goals scored. However, two of Palace's three away games ended in 2-1 defeats.
I'd be fine taking any combination of a low-scoring game, especially with the first goal of the game being the winning goal. The odds for Forest to win at home against a side looking for its first win of the season are too appealing to turn down.
Betting Picks
The table below gives the odds for each game's three main plays (moneyline, total goals, and both teams to score). My favorite pick from each game is highlighted if you are looking to build a parlay (which I will be playing and tracking).
| Game | Moneyline | Over/Under 2.5 | BTTS |
| Tottenham 3 – 1 West Ham | Tottenham -205 | Over 2.5 -270 | Yes -200 |
| Fulham 1 – 1 Aston Villa | Draw +250 | Under 2.5 +105 | Yes -185 |
| Ipswich 2 – 0 Everton | Ipswich +135 | Under 2.5 -105 | No +125 |
| Man United 2 – 1 Brentford | Man United -145 | Over 2.5 -205 | Yes -190 |
| Newcastle 2 – 3 Brighton | Brighton +245 | Over 2.5 -205 | Yes -220 |
| Southampton 1 – 3 Leicester | Leicester City +205 | Over 2.5 -145 | Yes -180 |
| Bournemouth 0 – 2 Arsenal | Arsenal -155 | Under 2.5 +110 | No +110 |
| Wolves 1 – 3 Man City | Man City -330 | Over 2.5 -225 | Yes -125 |
| Liverpool 1 – 1 Chelsea | Draw +320 | Under 2.5 +175 | Yes -220 |
| N. Forest 1 – 0 C. Palace | N. Forest +130 | Under 2.5 -145 | No -105 |
| Season totals | 30/70 | 25/70 | 29/70 |
| Season parlays | 1/7 (+4.47u) | 0/7 (-7.00u) | 1/7 (-2.43u) |
Good luck with those FPL teams and EPL bets. Remember to bet responsibly!
