EPL Betting Picks and Game Previews for Matchday 7: English Premier League

The EPL season is underway and we're bringing you our weekly article looking at betting picks and predictions for all games. Matchday 7 kicks off on Saturday, October 5 with Crystal Palace hosting Liverpool. It culminates on Sunday, October 6 when Tottenham Hotspur visits Brighton.

As we do every week, we'll offer a preview of all the games. We'll predict the outcome, give a score prediction, and pick our favorite play for all fixtures. Before you read on, remember these essential things: betting on sports should be fun. If you aren't having fun with it, stop. And never bet what you can't afford to lose.

We're bringing you more soccer content than ever before at RotoBaller. There are FPL, UCL, and DFS articles every week, along with our weekly betting picks and game previews article, all of which can be found here. Follow the team on X (@EuanFPL, @TheFPLManual, @df_solutions, @BellRoto, and yours truly @Baseball_Jimbo), and reach out to any of us if you ever have any soccer questions.

Matchday 6 Recap

We couldn't build on our Matchday 5 win. Our "moneyline" parlay saw all four of our picks lead in their respective games. Only for three of them to go on and draw. Manchester United ruined our "both teams to score" parlay in the weekend's final game.

Bruno Fernandes getting sent off only to have the red card rescinded on appeal didn't help our cause. It feels like every week a controversial decision is going against us. Hopefully, we get one in our favor this weekend before we go into another international break.

Saturday, October 5, 2024

Crystal Palace (+475) vs. Liverpool (-195) - 7:30 a.m. EDT

Palace remains winless after failing to hold a lead at Everton last weekend. It has struggled to adapt after losing key players in the summer. Liverpool's win at Wolves saw it go top of the table. It is the only EPL team to have won five of its six games so far and have a 100% record away from home.

Oliver Glasner’s stubbornness once again cost Crystal Palace points this weekend.

The Eagles rank fourth lowest in the league for clear-cut chance creation, lacking coherence across the pitch.

Obstinate Glasner must adapt. Piece as #CPFC extend winless start to six 👇

— Bobby Manzi (@BobbyManzi) September 30, 2024

Score prediction: Crystal Palace 1 – 2 Liverpool

Selhurst Park isn't an easy place to go to, but Palace hasn't been able to replicate its form from the second half of last season. Liverpool's midweek Champions League game may play a factor, but the visitors should still have enough to find a way to win in a similar way to last week.

Arsenal (-750) vs. Southampton (+1700) - 10:00 a.m. EDT

After navigating a difficult period and run of away games, Arsenal looked to be cruising to a home win last week. The fact it needed some late fireworks to win showed its qualities. Southampton had arguably its worst performance of the season against south coast rival Bournemouth.

Score prediction: Arsenal 3 – 0 Southampton

It needed a deflected header and a "worldie" for Leicester to find the net last weekend. Arsenal got back to keeping clean sheets against PSG in the Champions League on Tuesday. Southampton's lost all three away games, conceding three goals in two of them. I'm backing a comfortable home win to nil.

Brentford (+105) vs. Wolves (+260) - 10:00 a.m. EDT

Despite taking the lead inside 60 seconds for a third straight game, Brentford failed to go on and win for a third straight game. Wolves put in a spirited display against Liverpool, but its defeat left it bottom of the table. It also drew the ire of many watching due to its passivity.

🗣️ Gary Neville on SNF on Wolves' trailing to Liverpool:

‘Passing back to the goalkeeper, it just drives me crazy. Honestly, this is exactly what I’m talking about, you need a goal, do they know? Honestly it’s so frustrating, I can’t watch this! You can’t kid football fans!’ pic.twitter.com/XgyZXFa0zd

— Footy Accumulators (@FootyAccums) September 29, 2024

Score prediction: Brentford 2 – 0 Wolves

As long as Brentford doesn't take the lead in the first minute, expect it to win. The Bees are unbeaten at home and Wolves' 2.16 xG (expected goals) away from home is the lowest in the league. I'm backing a home win without the visitors scoring.

Leicester City (+225) vs. Bournemouth (+115) - 10:00 a.m. EDT

Leicester came close to securing a memorable draw but is one of the five teams without a win so far. Bournemouth put back-to-back defeats behind it and secured its second win of the season on Monday. Bournemouth has scored three goals in both of its wins.

Score prediction: Leicester City 2 – 3 Bournemouth

Leicester's six games have all seen both teams score. Four of the games also had at least three total goals. Bournemouth has yet to keep a clean sheet and only Liverpool and Chelsea have kept a clean sheet against it. We should see goals at each end of the pitch and a high-scoring game.

Manchester City (-425) vs. Fulham (+950) - 10:00 a.m. EDT

Back-to-back draws and the loss of Rodri have seen City slip out of being favorites to make it a fifth consecutive league title. Fulham ended Nottingham Forest's unbeaten start to the season and made it five games without defeat itself. It has only scored twice in three away games.

Score prediction: Manchester City 3 – 0 Fulham

City's 2.72 xGA (expected goals against) at home is the second-best in the league. The 14 shots it has allowed at home are the fewest. City has not kept a clean sheet since the opening weekend of the season. Fulham's lack of goals on the road points toward a comfortable home win to nil.

* courtesy of WhoScored.com

West Ham United (-125) vs. Ipswich Town (+320) - 10:00 a.m. EDT

Despite coming from behind to draw at Brentford, there's some discontent amongst the West Ham faithful. Just one win from their six games has the Hammers languishing in the bottom half. Ipswich is still seeking its first league win of the season, but it has now drawn four consecutive games.

Score prediction: West Ham United 1 – 2 Ipswich Town

This is more of a gut call on Ipswich causing an upset. West Ham's lost all three home games, although they were all against sides currently in the top five. Ipswich's attack seemed to really click last week and regardless of the result, we can expect goals in this encounter.

Everton (+230) vs. Newcastle United (+110) - 12:30 p.m. EDT

After taking just one point from its previous three games (all of which it led in), Everton finally got its first win of the season. Ironically, it had to come from behind to do it. Newcastle bounced back from its first defeat of the season to secure a creditable draw against Manchester City.

Score prediction: Everton 1 – 1 Newcastle United

I alluded to Newcastle riding its luck last week, with a -5.74 xGDiff (difference between goals conceded and xGA) being the biggest in the league. However, Everton is not a side that can't be trusted to take advantage. This game screams out at being a draw like it was in their last meeting in April.

Sunday, October 6, 2024

Aston Villa (+125) vs. Manchester United (+195) - 9:00 a.m. EDT

Villa put its disappointing draw at Ipswich behind it by claiming a memorable win against Bayern Munich in Wednesday's Champions League tie. United's abject display last Sunday increased the pressure on Erik ten Hag and it has just one win from its last five EPL games.

Score prediction: Aston Villa 1 – 1 Manchester United

I have no faith in United but it always seems to get a result when it most needs to. The one thing I have confidence in is both teams scoring. Five of Villa's six games have seen both sides score. United will need to take its chances and the returning Rasmus Højlund may be a difference-maker.

* courtesy of PremierLeague.com

Chelsea (-220) vs. Nottingham Forest (+500) - 9:00 a.m. EDT

Chelsea's impressive start to the season continued with its 4-2 victory last weekend. It now leads the league in goals scored with 15. Forest lost its unbeaten record last week but it remains undefeated on its travels. Only Liverpool has a lower xGA than Forest (2.88) in away games.

Score prediction: Chelsea 2 – 1 Nottingham Forest

I fully expect Chelsea to win, but don't think it'll be easy. All six of Forest's games have been decided by one goal or ended in a draw. If Chelsea continues to click, it could run out as comfortable winners. However the game plays out, a home win seems too good to pass up.

Brighton (+185) vs. Tottenham Hostspur (+120) - 11:30 a.m. EDT

Brighton scored two goals but failed to win for the second consecutive game as it was stunned by Cole Palmer last week. Tottenham cruised past Manchester United last Sunday. It was its most impressive performance of the season, but it's difficult to know how much that was down to the opponents.

Score prediction: Brighton 2 – 2 Tottenham Hotspur

Four of Tottenham's last five games have had at least three goals. It has also scored in five of its six EPL games and conceded in five. Four of Brighton's six games have seen a goal at both ends. There's been at least three total goals in four of Brighton's games, too, and that's what we'll play here.

Betting Picks

The table below gives the odds for each game's three main plays (moneyline, total goals, and both teams to score). My favorite pick from each game is highlighted if you are looking to build a parlay (which I will be playing and tracking).

Good luck with those FPL teams and EPL bets. Remember to bet responsibly!

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