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The EPL season is underway and we're bringing you our weekly article looking at betting picks and predictions for all games. Matchday 6 kicks off on Saturday, September 28 with Newcastle United hosting Manchester City. It culminates on Monday, September 30 when Southampton visits Bournemouth.
As we do every week, we'll offer a preview of all the games. We'll predict the outcome, give a score prediction, and pick our favorite play for all fixtures. Before you read on, remember these essential things: betting on sports should be fun. If you aren't having fun with it, stop. And never bet what you can't afford to lose.
We're bringing you more soccer content than ever before at RotoBaller. There are FPL, UCL, and DFS articles every week, along with our weekly betting picks and game previews article, all of which can be found here. Follow the team on X (@EuanFPL, @TheFPLManual, @df_solutions, @BellRoto, and yours truly @Baseball_Jimbo), and reach out to any of us if you ever have any soccer questions.
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Matchday 5 Recap
We finally had a winner last week, with our "both teams to score" parlay hitting. It was still a disappointing week overall and we needed a late Ipswich Town equalizer for the win. We'll look to build on that as we continue through a congested fixture period with an international break in sight.
We'll be changing things up a little bit this week. Rather than just one play per game, I'll be picking two plays for some of the games with the appealing odds we're seeing. This week's write-ups are slightly abbreviated due to personal reasons. But that does not come at the cost of any research.
Saturday, September 28, 2024
Newcastle United (+400) vs. Manchester City (-165) - 7:30 a.m. EDT
Score prediction: Newcastle United 1 – 3 Manchester City
I mentioned last week that Newcastle had been significantly outperforming its xGD (expected goal difference). It got beat 3-1 and I reckon we'll see a similar scoreline here. The last six games between these two at St. James' Park have totaled 29 goals. I expect plenty of goals and an away win.
🤔 How much will City miss Rodri against Newcastle?
🔽 Newcastle's xPTS ranks them 16th in the "justice" table, indicating a need for better overall performance.
🤝 Both Newcastle and Manchester City have conceded in 4/5 Premier League games so far this season. BTTS @ 1.60. pic.twitter.com/sJf641u9LD
— OddAlerts.com (@OddAlerts) September 25, 2024
Arsenal (-575) vs. Leicester City (+1300) - 10:00 a.m. EDT
Score prediction: Arsenal 2 – 0 Leicester City
Arsenal's only conceded one goal this season with a full 11 players on the pitch. With Martin Odegaard still sidelined and a big Champions League game on Tuesday, expect a professional performance. A fifth game involving Arsenal to have two or fewer goals looks like the best play.
Brentford (+120) vs. West Ham United (+215) - 10:00 a.m. EDT
Score prediction: Brentford 2 – 1 West Ham United
Four of Brentford's five games have seen at least three goals. And three of West Ham's five games have seen three or more goals scored. West Ham has the highest xGA (expected goals against), while Brentford has the third-highest xGA (courtesy of WhoScored). We can expect goals in this game.
Chelsea (-140) vs. Brighton (+330) - 10:00 a.m. EDT
Score prediction: Chelsea 1 – 1 Brighton
Chelsea won on the road for a third consecutive time this season. It has taken only one point from its two home games, the most recent one ending 1-1. Brighton's drawn in its last three after winning its first two games. It should be a tight game and one in which both teams will find the net.
Everton (+175) vs. Crystal Palace (+155) - 10:00 a.m. EDT
Score prediction: Everton 1 – 0 Crystal Palace
Having blown yet another lead (albeit a one-goal lead and still getting a point), it's tough to back Everton to win. Three of Palace's five games saw two or fewer goals. They've met three times in 2024 and all three games had no more than two goals. Regardless of the result, I anticipate a low-scoring game.
The Toffees may receive a boost from a takeover that finally looks like it will be completed. Their long-term status at least seems secure. It feels like the ideal time to back Everton to get a first league win this season. It's just difficult to trust it given its propensity to blow leads.
BREAKING: The Friedkin Group agree deal to buy Everton with investment of £400-500m to acquire Farhad Moshiri's majority 94% stake 🔵🚨 pic.twitter.com/vSsbsxFo2M
— Sky Sports News (@SkySportsNews) September 23, 2024
Nottingham Forest (+145) vs. Fulham (+205) - 10:00 a.m. EDT
Score prediction: Nottingham Forest 1 – 1 Fulham
Both of Forest's home games ended 1-1. Both teams have scored in three of their five EPL games. After losing 1-0 at Manchester United to open the season, both teams have scored in Fulham's last four EPL games. I can make a case for an away win but both teams scoring looks the likeliest pick.
Wolves (+650) vs. Liverpool (-270) - 12:30 p.m. EDT
Score prediction: Wolves 1 – 2 Liverpool
Wolves sit bottom of the league after a tough start to the season. I don't foresee an upset here but it's worth noting that only Arsenal has managed to keep a clean sheet against it. Liverpool has only conceded once in the league but Wolves will cause it problems, so both teams scoring is my play.
Sunday, September 29, 2024
Ipswich Town (+320) vs. Aston Villa (-120) - 9:00 a.m. EDT
Score prediction: Ipswich Town 0 – 2 Aston Villa
As well as having the second-highest xGA, Ipswich's 3.82 xG (expected goals) is the lowest in the league. Villa's only defeat came against Arsenal and it has scored at least twice in its four other games. Villa has carried on from last season and is too short-priced to win this one.
Unai Emery becomes the fastest manager in Aston Villa's history to reach 50 wins 👏🎯 pic.twitter.com/DEMp3SPsTD
— Sky Sports Football (@SkyFootball) September 24, 2024
Manchester United (+130) vs. Tottenham Hotspur (+175) - 11:30 a.m. EDT
Score prediction: Manchester United 2 – 2 Tottenham Hotspur
More than two goals were scored in three of United's five games. Last week's goalless draw could easily have seen goals at both ends. Tottenham's kept four clean sheets in its last 34 EPL games. Only Arsenal has kept a clean sheet against it this season.
This is also one of the higher-scoring games in recent times. There have been 36 goals in their last 10 meetings. Both teams scored in seven of those 10 games and there were also at least three goals in seven of the contests. I like backing both teams to score and at least three goals in this one.
Monday, September 30, 2024
Bournemouth (-160) vs. Southampton (+390) - 3:00 p.m. EDT
Score prediction: Bournemouth 2 – 1 Southampton
After starting the season strong, Bournemouth has lost back-to-back games. Both were away and against current top-5 teams. Southampton has only scored twice. Once against Ipswich and once while 3-0 down. It won't roll over but a home win is certainly on the cards.
Betting Picks
The table below gives the odds for each game's three main plays (moneyline, total goals, and both teams to score). My favorite pick from each game is highlighted if you are looking to build a parlay (which I will be playing and tracking).
| Game | Moneyline | Over/Under 2.5 | BTTS |
| Newcastle 1 – 3 Man City | Man City -165 | O2.5 -205 | Yes -180 |
| Arsenal 2 – 0 Leicester | Arsenal -575 | U2.5 +155 | No -160 |
| Brentford 2 – 1 West Ham | Brentford +120 | O2.5 -150 | Yes -190 |
| Chelsea 1 – 1 Brighton | Draw +320 | U2.5 +150 | Yes -190 |
| Everton 1 – 0 C. Palace | Everton +175 | U2.5 -105 | No +130 |
| N. Forest 1 – 1 Fulham | Draw +225 | U2.5 -125 | Yes -140 |
| Wolves 1 – 2 Liverpool | Liverpool -270 | O2.5 -215 | Yes -140 |
| Ipswich 0 – 2 A. Villa | A. Villa -120 | U2.5 +105 | No +125 |
| Man United 2 – 2 Tottenham | Draw +290 | O2.5 -255 | Yes -285 |
| Bournemouth 2 – 1 Southampton | Bournemouth -160 | O2.5 -200 | Yes -180 |
| Season totals | 19/50 | 15/50 | 21/50 |
| Season parlays | 0/5 (-5.00u) | 0/5 (-5.00u) | 1/5 (-1.43u) |
Good luck with those FPL teams and EPL bets. Remember to bet responsibly!
