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The EPL season is underway and we're bringing you our weekly article looking at betting picks and predictions for all games. Matchday 5 kicks off on Saturday, September 21 with West Ham United hosting Chelsea. It culminates on Sunday, September 22 when Arsenal visits Manchester City.
As we do every week, we'll offer a preview of every game. We'll predict the outcome, give a score prediction, and pick our favorite play for all fixtures. Before you read on, remember these essential things: betting on sports should be fun. If you aren't having fun with it, stop. And never bet what you can't afford to lose.
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Matchday 4 Recap
We had our worst weekend for two seasons last week. Only three correct results and seven total right picks left us licking our wounds. Despite that, Southampton and Bournemouth missing penalties denied us winners. Fulham and Crystal Palace drew at home when a win would have bagged us a parlay.
Onward and upward to Matchday 5. The Champions League kicked off this week, adding another wrinkle to our picks. Something else to keep in mind if you're making any plays this weekend.
Saturday, September 21, 2024
West Ham United (+220) vs. Chelsea (+110) - 7:30 a.m. EDT
A last-minute equalizer meant West Ham avoided a third defeat in four games to start the season. It has lost both home games so far, albeit against two of last season's top four. Chelsea rode its luck and needed a missed penalty to bag its second win of the season, both away from home.
Score prediction: West Ham United 1 – 1 Chelsea
West Ham has lost its two home games while Chelsea has won both of its away games. That trend repeating is very possible. However, I'm backing both teams to score as my play. That has happened in both of West Ham's home games.
Only the missed penalty last week prevented the same outcome from happening in both of Chelsea's home games. The last three league meetings between these two with West Ham as the home team saw both teams score. Chelsea failed to win any of the three fixtures (one draw and two losses).
Aston Villa (-185) vs. Wolves (+425) - 10:00 a.m. EDT
Villa has carried over last season's form into the new campaign. Three wins from four games has it looking like a top-4 contender again. Wolves led a game for the first time this season when taking the lead against Newcastle, but still slipped to a third defeat in four matches.
Score prediction: Aston Villa 2 – 0 Wolves
Villa had a triumphant return to top-flight European football on Tuesday. Having the extra day to recover rather than playing on Wednesday should mitigate any fatigue. While I can make a case for Wolves finding the back of the net, it's difficult to see anything other than a home win.
🟣🔵✨ The first Champions League scorer for Aston Villa in 41 years…
…Youri Tielemans. 🇧🇪 pic.twitter.com/XrUsLGu4pV
— Fabrizio Romano (@FabrizioRomano) September 17, 2024
Fulham (+190) vs. Newcastle United (+135) - 10:00 a.m. EDT
Fulham was denied a second home win of the season with West Ham's injury-time equalizer last week. It was a different story for Newcastle, who mounted a late comeback to beat Bournemouth and maintain its unbeaten start to the season.
Score prediction: Fulham 1 – 1 Newcastle United
Newcastle is the only side in the top eight with a negative expected goal difference (xGD). It has been riding its luck so far and it's difficult to make a case for that luck not to run out. Both teams scored in each of Fulham's and Newcastle's last three league games. That's our play for this game.
Leicester City (+145) vs. Everton (+185) - 10:00 a.m. EDT
Both teams blew a two-goal lead last week. Leicester at least managed to take its second point of the season when drawing 2-2. Meanwhile, Everton lost 3-2 for a second consecutive game, having led 2-0. Both teams will be desperate for a first win of the season.
Score prediction: Leicester City 2 – 1 Everton
Everton has conceded three or more goals in all four EPL games. The pressure is mounting on the Toffees and even if they do score first, they are yet to show they can hold onto a lead. Leicester has at least looked more capable of winning games, so I'm backing a home win at plus odds.
Everton have lost back-to-back league games where they had a 2-goal lead for the first time in their history. #EFC
— EFC Statto (@EFC_Statto) September 14, 2024
Liverpool (-370) vs. Bournemouth (+800) - 10:00 a.m. EDT
Liverpool bounced back from its first defeat of the season by winning its opening Champions League tie. Like with Villa, playing on Tuesday should help its preparations for this weekend. Bournemouth contrived to lose at home to Chelsea and end its unbeaten start to the season.
Score prediction: Liverpool 3 – 1 Bournemouth
It's unlikely that Liverpool will lose back-to-back home games, so a home win is on the cards. After keeping three consecutive clean sheets to start the season, it has now conceded a goal in its last two games (including Tuesday).
Bournemouth's missed penalty against Chelsea is the only reason it hasn't found the net in each of its games this season. Both teams scoring in this game is my favorite play.
Southampton (+115) vs. Ipswich Town (+225) - 10:00 a.m. EDT
This is the first game involving two newly promoted teams of the season. Both sides are seeking a first win this campaign. Ipswich showed its battling qualities in getting a second straight draw last week. Southampton missed a penalty to lead against Manchester United before unraveling.
Score prediction: Southampton 2 – 3 Ipswich Town
Ipswich won both games against Southampton in the Championship last season, including a 3-2 win at St. Mary's back in April. Southampton displayed a fragility last weekend which we hadn't seen before. It has managed just one goal from its four games.
There is a chance that this will be an edgy affair with so much at stake, even at this early stage of the season. But, it is a game both sides will see as a huge chance to get a first win and I suspect we see an open encounter with plenty of goals. That's my play here.
Tottenham Hotspur (-210) vs. Brentford (+475) - 10:00 a.m. EDT
Tottenham's defeat in the North London Derby highlighted ongoing issues that plagued it toward the end of last season. This will be Brentford's third consecutive away game to a side that finished in the top five last season. It lost the previous two (at Liverpool and Manchester City).
Score prediction: Tottenham Hotspur 2 – 2 Brentford
Tottenham has kept just four clean sheets in its last 33 EPL games. Its form since February 1 has been that of a mid-table side. While it does still win more than it loses at home, I fully expect Brentford to find the net, so I will be backing both teams to score in this one.
Crystal Palace (+170) vs. Manchester United (+145) - 12:30 p.m. EDT
It was a story of penalties for these two sides last week. Palace needed an injury-time spot-kick to take a point at home to Leicester. Southampton missed a penalty to go a goal up against Manchester United. Two minutes after the missed penalty, United took the lead and ran out 3-0 winners.
Score prediction: Crystal Palace 2 – 1 Manchester United
Palace did the double over United last season, including a 4-0 home win in May. But Palace isn't as good as it was back then. Palace has conceded twice in three of its four games. Each of United's last three games has seen three goals. I'm going to take over 2.5 total goals in this game.
Sunday, September 22, 2024
Brighton (-130) vs. Nottingham Forest (+340) - 9:00 a.m. EDT
Brighton kept its unbeaten start to the season last weekend. But its goalless draw at home to Ipswich will feel like two points dropped. Forest has also yet to lose a game this season and stunned Liverpool last weekend.
Score prediction: Brighton 1 – 0 Nottingham Forest
Forest has scored one goal in all four of its games. Despite blanking last week, Brighton should have enough firepower to breach a Forest defense that's conceded just twice this season. Brighton's conceded only two goals itself and I'm taking a home win in what should be a low-scoring game.
Manchester City (-125) vs. Arsenal (+340) - 11:30 a.m. EDT
The top two for the last two seasons occupy first and second place already this season. City is the only side in the top four divisions with a 100% record. Arsenal's last league away defeat came on December 31, 2023.
This is a classic game of the irresistible force meeting the immovable object. Arsenal conceded just nine goals in its 21 EPL games in 2024. City's scored 59 EPL goals in 2024 (22 games). Both are the best in the league.
Score prediction: Manchester City 1 – 0 Arsenal
Given Manchester City played its Champions League game at home on Wednesday, it has an advantage over Arsenal. The Gunners traveled to Italy on Thursday. City's extra day between games and lack of travel may well prove to be a deciding factor in such a tight encounter.
Although I'm picking a narrow home win, it's with little confidence. This game has been about very fine margins and minute details in their recent meetings. Another low-scoring game feels like the likeliest outcome with the odd goal possibly deciding it.
Betting Picks
The table below gives the odds for each game's three main plays (moneyline, total goals, and both teams to score). My favorite pick from each game is highlighted if you are looking to build a parlay (which I will be playing and tracking).
| Game | Moneyline | Over/Under 2.5 | BTTS |
| West Ham 1 – 1 Chelsea | Draw +275 | U2.5 +150 | Yes -230 |
| Aston Villa 2 – 0 Wolves | A. Villa -185 | U2.5 +130 | No +115 |
| Fulham 1 – 1 Newcastle | Draw +250 | U2.5 +120 | Yes -205 |
| Leicester 2 – 1 Everton | Leicester +145 | O2.5 -115 | Yes -160 |
| Liverpool 3 – 1 Bournemouth | Liverpool -370 | O2.5 -275 | Yes -135 |
| Southampton 2 – 3 Ipswich | Ipswich +225 | O2.5 -135 | Yes -175 |
| Tottenham 2 – 2 Brentford | Draw +390 | O2.5 -240 | Yes -190 |
| C. Palace 2 – 1 Man United | C. Palace +170 | O2.5 -165 | Yes -200 |
| Brighton 1 – 0 N. Forest | Brighton -130 | U2.5 +100 | No +115 |
| Man City 1 – 0 Arsenal | Man City -125 | U2.5 -120 | No +100 |
| Season totals | 17/40 | 13/40 | 17/40 |
| Season parlays | 0/4 (-4.00u) | 0/4 (-4.00u) | 0/4 (-4.00u) |
Good luck with those FPL teams and EPL bets. Remember to bet responsibly!
