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The EPL season is back and so is our weekly article looking at betting picks and predictions for all games. Matchday 3 kicks off on Saturday, August 31 with Arsenal hosting Brighton. It culminates on Sunday, September 1 when Liverpool visits Manchester United.
As we did last season, we'll offer a preview of every game. We'll predict the outcome, give a score prediction, and pick our favorite play for all fixtures. Before you read on, remember these essential things: betting on sports should be fun. If you aren't having fun with it, stop. And never bet what you can't afford to lose.
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Matchday 2 Recap
It took just two weeks of the season for us to be robbed of a winner due to VAR. Needing three goals in the Bournemouth versus Newcastle game, Bournemouth made it 2-1 in injury time, only for the goal to be ruled out by VAR despite no one seemingly agreeing with the decision.
"I don't think there's anyway VAR know for a fact that it's handball."
The Super Sunday panel analyse IFAB's Laws of the Game on handling the ball during match play after Bournemouth's disallowed goal against Newcastle 👀❌ pic.twitter.com/jimq7vVGAP
— Sky Sports Premier League (@SkySportsPL) August 25, 2024
Hopefully, we'll have a decision go our way this week to make up for it. Last week should remind us how so much of this is out of our hands and why we shouldn't be risking what we can't afford to lose. No matter how much research you can do and get right, there are no guarantees in soccer.
Saturday, August 31, 2024
Arsenal (-310) vs. Brighton (+700) - 7:30 a.m. EDT
Both teams come into the weekend with 100% records. Brighton needed a bit of luck and a late winner to see off Manchester United last week. Arsenal managed to banish last season's bogey team when it beat Aston Villa. It, too, needed some luck and a brilliant David Raya save.
I expect Arsenal to win the game but it won't be easy. Brighton carries a threat no matter who it faces and Arsenal will likely concede its first goal of the season. The "both teams to score" play has the most appealing odds in this game.
Score prediction: Arsenal 2 – 1 Brighton
This angle of David Raya’s save against Aston Villa 🤯
— Soccer Forever (@soccerforeverhq) August 28, 2024
Brentford (-135) vs. Southampton (+340) - 10:00 a.m. EDT
Brentford put up a fight at Anfield last week but still looks like a team that will miss Ivan Toney's ability to score out of nothing. Southampton has now failed to score in its opening two EPL games. It rarely looked like scoring last week and only seemed a threat against Newcastle when playing against 10 men.
It won't be long until Southampton opens its account. While I can make a case for it to score at Brentford, the hosts should still have too much creativity and firepower. A home win at the odds being offered are too appealing to turn down.
Score prediction: Brentford 2 – 0 Southampton
Southampton 0 : 1 N. Forest
▪ xG: 0.23 - 2.22
▪ xThreat: 0.95 - 1.31
▪ Possession: 64.3% - 35.7%
▪ Field Tilt: 55.7% - 44.3%
▪ Def Action Height: 42.2 - 42.5#msbot_eng #epl pic.twitter.com/5ucb9QrIT4— markstats bot (@markstatsbot) August 24, 2024
Everton (+175) vs. Bournemouth (+150) - 10:00 a.m. EDT
Everton's season couldn't have gotten off to a worse start. No goals scored, seven conceded, and goalkeeping howlers have led to the fans already voicing their displeasure. Bournemouth's two draws so far have been vastly different. It will feel hard done by following last weekend.
One similarity in Bournemouth's two games is the fact it has conceded first. I suspect that will happen again, and if so, Everton will more than likely sit back and try to hold on. Providing Bournemouth doesn't score early and run out comfortable winners, this will be a low-scoring game.
Score prediction: Everton 1 – 1 Bournemouth
🗣️ "So there's enough fans in this stadium and there's enough fans across the world and across England for Everton and if they say it's unacceptable then they know more about it than me"
Sean Dyche on the train station incident
Full video: https://t.co/m1EtEc6OJT pic.twitter.com/81pntfnR86
— 𝐓𝐎𝐅𝐅𝐄𝐄 𝐓𝐕 (@ToffeeTVEFC) August 28, 2024
Ipswich Town (+200) vs. Fulham (+130) - 10:00 a.m. EDT
Ipswich will feel a semblance of relief having played Liverpool and Manchester City in its opening two games. It did show a fragility in its play last week, which was to be expected. Fulham continues to try and build a team capable of finishing in the top half and has looked good in its opening fixtures.
While this is a game Ipswich will believe it can truly start its EPL campaign with a win, I'm backing Fulham. The Tractor Boys showed how vulnerable they can be at the back last week. Fulham isn't in the same class as Manchester City, of course, but still has the quality to win this game.
Score prediction: Ipswich Town 1 – 2 Fulham
Arijanet Muric vs Manchester City
◎ 1 - Save
◎ 2 - Errors leading to goal
◎ 4 - Goals conceded
◎ 1 - Dispossessed
◎ 3.29 - WhoScored RatingMuric earned the 𝗟𝗢𝗪𝗘𝗦𝗧 WhoScored rating we have ever recorded in a Premier League match pic.twitter.com/pZ89mUeTv0
— WhoScored.com (@WhoScored) August 25, 2024
Leicester City (+340) vs. Aston Villa (-130) - 10:00 a.m. EDT
Leicester's tricky start to the season continues. Despite being the only newly promoted team with a point so far, it could easily be pointless. Ollie Watkins' profligacy denied Villa at least a point last weekend. Villa's creativity will lead to plenty of chances and Watkins won't keep missing.
Villa would be priced lower if Watkins took his chances last week. Leicester gave up a host of chances against Tottenham in its opening game. It won't be able to get away with being so generous to its opponents this week. Villa to win is too well-priced for me to ignore.
Score prediction: Leicester City 0 – 2 Aston Villa
Ollie Watkins misses a chance worth 0.62(xG). pic.twitter.com/bDqo0wScNp
— The xG Philosophy (@xGPhilosophy) August 24, 2024
Nottingham Forest (+105) vs. Wolves (+245) - 10:00 a.m. EDT
Forest has been able to pick up points in both games so far. It will need to keep doing so before the tougher fixtures arrive. Wolves' second-half collapse last week will have raised some alarm bells. Given its upcoming schedule, Wolves will see this as a big opportunity to get an important three points.
Nuno Espirito Santo has taken charge of 12 home games as Forest's head coach. Both teams have scored in nine of them, with Liverpool and Manchester City being the only two to keep a clean sheet. Wolves just shipped in six against Chelsea, so expect both teams to find the net here.
Score prediction: Nottingham Forest 1 – 2 Wolves
"They were probably sat there enjoying their team have a right good go against a team that's spent billions!"🥲
Gary O'Neil apologised to @Wolves fans after his side's second half collapse against @ChelseaFC💔
🔗https://t.co/donYWGqlM4 pic.twitter.com/7oDBZszWlW
— Hayters TV (@HaytersTV) August 25, 2024
West Ham United (+600) vs. Manchester City (-265) - 12:30 p.m. EDT
West Ham produced a classic away performance to beat Crystal Palace last week. But its second home game of the season is tougher than its first against Aston Villa. Manchester City has yet to break a sweat. Ominously, it has six points and six goals with Erling Haaland bagging four.
You need to go back to September 19, 2015, for West Ham's last league win against Manchester City. Five of its last six meetings have seen at least three goals scored, including both games last season (which ended 3-1). Expect more of the same this weekend, especially with Haaland already in top form.
Score prediction: West Ham United 1 – 3 Manchester City
Erling Haaland scored his seventh Premier League hat-trick against Ipswich on Saturday...
And some of his @ManCity team-mates are getting tired of signing his match balls! 😅 pic.twitter.com/KRkEjlGMr6
— Premier League (@premierleague) August 26, 2024
Sunday, September 1, 2024
Chelsea (-175) vs. Crystal Palace (+425) - 8:30 a.m. EDT
After a chastening opening-game defeat, Chelsea was back with a bang last weekend. Given it is still active in the transfer market, it could be a sign of things to come. Palace will wonder how it has no points so far. It has had a similar xG to its opponents in both games but has nothing to show for it.
Chelsea showed its attacking threat last week but has conceded two goals in both of its games this season. Palace has as well so backing there to be at least three goals in the game feels like the safest option this week. Palace will hope its new signing can tighten things up defensively moving forward.
Score prediction: Chelsea 2 – 2 Crystal Palace
🚨🔵🔴 Crystal Palace and Wolfsburg have agreed on deal for Maxence Lacroix as club to club is all done.
Details to be sorted on contract in order to get the deal sealed soon for #CPFC. pic.twitter.com/YYbjctCwfL
— Fabrizio Romano (@FabrizioRomano) August 28, 2024
Newcastle United (+145) vs. Tottenham Hotspur (+150) - 8:30 a.m. EDT
It's been a mixed bag from Newcastle so far. It has picked up four points but had to work extremely hard to do so and has yet to click into gear. Tottenham cruised past Everton last weekend, making the most of the mistakes from the visitors. Newcastle won't be as generous.
There were nine goals in the two games between Newcastle and Tottenham last season. This is a fixture that has averaged five goals a game in the previous three seasons (six games). September 27, 2020, was the last time fewer than three goals were scored in this game. Back a high-scoring game here!
This is also a game that should have plenty of FPL appeal. I would certainly be looking to captain any midfielder or forward from either side.
Score prediction: Newcastle United 1 – 2 Tottenham Hotspur
Newcastle v Tottenham last 5 games
Newcastle 4 v 0 Tottenham
Tottenham 4 v 1 Newcastle
Newcastle 6 v 1 Tottenham
Tottenham 1 v 2 Newcastle
Tottenham 5 v 1 Newcastle25 goals in the last 5 fixtures between these 2 teams. I am excited to own Anthony Gordon for this game 🤩 pic.twitter.com/Kbgmgd9CLF
— TrophyFPL (Mo) 🏆 (@TrophyFpl) August 27, 2024
Manchester United (+265) vs. Liverpool (-115) - 11:00 a.m. EDT
The game of the weekend sees Manchester United host Liverpool. United's Jekyll and Hyde persona was on full display again last weekend. Meanwhile, Liverpool again put in a professional display to comfortably beat Brentford. We may see the away team control things on Sunday.
Six of the last seven games between these two at Old Trafford saw goals at both ends. I don't believe it will be as open as in recent seasons. Manchester United will look to be more solid defensively while Liverpool appears more patient in its play.
I'm backing both teams to score but am not sure if it will be high-scoring. This could be a more cagey game than we're used to seeing between the two. It may be a fixture that comes to life in the late stages, so we'll opt for the safer play. It could end up playing out like last season's FA Cup fixture, too.
Score prediction: Manchester United 1 – 1 Liverpool
Betting Picks
The table below gives the odds for each of the three main plays for each game (moneyline, total goals, and both teams to score). My favorite pick from each game is highlighted if you are looking to build a parlay (which I will be playing and tracking).
| Game | Moneyline | Over/Under 2.5 | BTTS |
| Arsenal 2 – 1 Brighton | Arsenal -310 | O2.5 -195 | Yes -115 |
| Brentford 2 – 0 Southampton | Brentford -135 | U2.5 +115 | No +125 |
| Everton 1 – 1 Bournemouth | Draw +240 | U2.5 -105 | Yes -170 |
| Ipswich 1 – 2 Fulham | Fulham +130 | O2.5 -130 | Yes -170 |
| Leicester 0 – 2 A. Villa | A. Villa -130 | U2.5 +105 | No +120 |
| N. Forest 1 – 2 Wolves | Wolves +245 | O2.5 -130 | Yes -160 |
| West Ham 1 – 3 Man City | Man City -265 | O2.5 -225 | Yes -155 |
| Chelsea 2 – 2 C. Palace | Draw +340 | O2.5 -195 | Yes -180 |
| Newcastle 1 – 2 Tottenham | Tottenham +150 | O2.5 -280 | Yes -295 |
| Man United 1 – 1 Liverpool | Draw +310 | U2.5 +180 | Yes -235 |
| Season totals | 10/20 | 9/20 | 8/20 |
| Season parlays | 0/2 (-2.00u) | 0/2 (-2.00u) | 0/2 (-2.00u) |
Good luck with those FPL teams and EPL bets. Remember to bet responsibly!
