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Jamie Steed previews EPL Matchday 28 of the 2024-25 season, starting on 3/8/2025. He previews each game from the English Premier League, picking bets and providing predictions for each game.
The EPL season rolls on, and we're bringing you our weekly article, which looks at betting picks and predictions for all games. Matchday 28 kicks off on Saturday, March 8, with Manchester City visiting Nottingham Forest. It culminates on Monday, March 10, when West Ham United hosts Newcastle United.
Every week, we'll offer a preview of all the games. We'll predict the outcome, give a score prediction, and pick our favorite play for all fixtures. Before you read on, remember these essential things: betting on sports should be fun. If you aren't having fun with it, stop. And never bet what you can't afford to lose.
We're bringing you more soccer content than ever before at RotoBaller. There are FPL, UCL, and DFS articles every week, along with our weekly betting picks and game previews article, all of which can be found here. Follow the team on X (@EuanFPL, @TheFPLManual, @df_solutions, @BellRoto, and yours truly @Baseball_Jimbo), and reach out to any of us if you ever have any soccer questions.
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Matchday 27 Recap
The midweek round of fixtures provided a frustrating matchday. Despite getting four correct scores and two-thirds of our picks right, we failed to bag a parlay. Nottingham Forest failed to find a goal against Arsenal that would've netted us a moneyline parlay.
On Wednesday, the two games with the most expected goals disappointed. Tottenham Hotspur and Newcastle United blanked just a few days after scoring four goals. It was just one of those weeks in which we got a lot right but nothing to show.
Saturday, March 8, 2025
Nottingham Forest (+275) vs. Manchester City (-110) - 7:30 a.m. EST
Score prediction: Nottingham Forest 0 – 2 Manchester City
Forest remains in the Champions League qualification places despite taking just four points in its last five games. City's form has been sketchy all season. But its only two defeats since Boxing Day (10 games) have come against the current top two in the standings.
It's difficult to back City given its performances this season, but even at odds-on, it feels overpriced. Forest's form has been too inconsistent to trust it. With Erling Haaland returning to goal-scoring form, I expect City to win, leapfrogging the hosts in the league table.
Six attacking returns in his last five matches 🤖
Is it time to bring in Erling Haaland to your squad? ⏱️#FPL pic.twitter.com/Pzka6A5Dpm
— Fantasy Premier League (@OfficialFPL) February 27, 2025
Brighton (-105) vs. Fulham (+270) - 10:00 a.m. EST
Score prediction: Brighton 1 – 1 Fulham
Both sides have won three of their last four games and are separated by a point in the table. They both have an FA Cup quarterfinal fixture to look forward to at the end of the month. Given they are evenly matched, it should come as no surprise that I've picked a draw.
The hosts are favorites but have failed to beat Fulham in any of their nine Premier League encounters. We'll play things safe and opt for both teams to score. That's happened in nine of Fulham's 13 away games and nine of Brighton's 13 home games.
Crystal Palace (-210) vs. Ipswich Town (+550) - 10:00 a.m. EST
Score prediction: Crystal Palace 3 – 1 Ipswich Town
Palace's form since December 1 is the third-best in the league. It has been better on its travels than at Selhurst Park but should still have more than enough to beat Ipswich. The Tractor Boys have picked up just two points from eight games in 2025. We'll take a home win even at the short odds.
* table courtesy of TWTD.co.uk
We'll also play for at least three goals being scored in the game. Palace's top scorer, Jean-Philippe Mateta, suffered a gruesome facial injury in the FA Cup win last weekend. But summer signing Eddie Nketiah scored his first and second goals as a sub in Palace's last two games.
Ipswich has conceded 24 goals in its eight-game winless run, conceding at least two goals in seven of those matches. There have been three or more total goals in six of Palace's last seven home games. Both teams scoring is a solid play, too, but we'll opt for the safer pick of over 2.5 goals.
Liverpool (-1000) vs. Southampton (+1700) - 10:00 a.m. EST
Score prediction: Liverpool 3 – 0 Southampton
Top faces bottom in what is the most lopsided game of the season so far. That should mean Liverpool will thump Southampton with some predictions having the hosts scoring six or more. While I do think it'll be a comfortable home win, there are a couple of factors to consider.
Liverpool's been clinical in recent games. But it has not been blowing teams away, scoring two goals in each of its last six league games. While this is the easiest fixture on paper, thinking Liverpool will suddenly stick six or more goals past an opponent doesn't seem likely.
* Graphic courtesy of FBREF.com
Liverpool has the EFL Cup final next weekend, so if it does lead comfortably, expect it to take its foot off the gas. The Reds also had a Champions League game against PSG on Wednesday. We'll take a home win to nil with the host scoring at least three. But don't get too carried away.
Brentford (+120) vs. Aston Villa (+190) - 12:30 p.m. EST
Score prediction: Brentford 2 – 1 Aston Villa
Villa's away form is costing it a chance to return to the Champions League next season. The 14 points it has taken on its travels are by far the fewest among teams currently in the top 10. Brentford's recent form at home doesn't make for pretty reading and that is why we'll avoid playing the moneyline.
After winning seven of eight home games to begin the season, the Bees have taken two points from their last six games at the Gtech Community Stadium. Brentford's conceded 12 goals in its last six home games. Only three teams have conceded more away goals than Villa (27).
We should see goals and neither team is strong enough defensively to keep a clean sheet. Villa's January attacking recruits are performing well, so I wouldn't be shocked if we saw an away win. But playing over 2.5 total goals and both teams scoring seem like the best options.
No player created more big chances than Marcus Rashford in the Premier League in February (4).
Finding his feet at Villa. 👏 pic.twitter.com/qYmreZ4W3t
— WhoScored.com (@WhoScored) February 28, 2025
Wolves (+155) vs. Everton (+185) - 3:00 p.m. EST
Score prediction: Wolves 1 – 2 Everton
Wolves keep picking up wins when it needs them to maintain daylight between itself and the relegation zone. Everton's renaissance under David Moyes continues, although it has drawn three of its last four games since his return.
After struggling to score for much of the season, the Toffees have netted 15 times in their seven-game unbeaten run. The hosts being without top scorer Matheus Cunha could be the difference this weekend. Everton won the reverse fixture 4-0 and we'll take the visitors to do the double over Wolves here.
Sunday, March 9, 2025
Chelsea (-500) vs. Leicester City (+950) - 9:00 a.m. EDT
Score prediction: Chelsea 3 – 0 Leicester City
Chelsea got a much-needed win against Southampton last time out. And things don't get any tougher for the Blues with a home game against a seemingly hopeless Leicester City side. The Foxes' timid 2-0 defeat at West Ham United summed up their recent struggles perfectly.
Leicester has the fewest expected goals (xG) this season and has failed to score in four consecutive EPL games. Leicester scored five goals in the first two games following the appointment of Ruud van Nistelrooy. It netted four times in the subsequent 12 league games.
* Graphic courtesy of Whoscored.com
Leicester has also conceded 31 goals in those 12 games, shipping in at least two goals in 11 of them. We'll take the triple in this game; Chelsea winning without conceding and scoring at least three goals. At least two of those picks should come in without any issues, boosting out parlays.
Tottenham Hotspur (+135) vs. Bournemouth (+170) - 9:00 a.m. EDT
Score prediction: Tottenham Hotspur 2 – 1 Bournemouth
Spurs' mini-revival was ended by its 1-0 defeat against Manchester City. That was its seventh defeat at home in 14 matches. It was the first time in nine games in which Spurs failed to score. Bournemouth's bid for European Qualification has stuttered with three losses in its last four games.
Bournemouth's 14 away games have seen a total of 50 goals. The Cherries' 2-1 defeat against Brighton ended an eight-game away streak in which they scored at least twice. With all three results equally likely, we'll just back at least three goals being scored in the game.
Manchester United (+400) vs. Arsenal (-140) - 11:30 a.m. EDT
Score prediction: Manchester United 1 – 2 Arsenal
Just when you thought Arsenal wouldn't score again this season, it stuck seven goals past PSV in the Champions League. A reminder that when it clicks, it can beat any team. The Gunners are just too inconsistent with their attacking options limited to back them to win this game.
▪️ Arsenal are the first team to score 7+ goals away in a UCL knockout match
▪️ First team to have six different scorers (excluding own goals) in an away knockout game
▪️ First time two English teenagers have combined for a UCL goalArsenal’s 7-1 win over PSV made Champions… pic.twitter.com/IQNclUkl8M
— ESPN UK (@ESPNUK) March 5, 2025
Arsenal's kept three consecutive clean sheets on its travels in the league. That has come after not shutting out any of its previous nine EPL opponents away from home. Two of those recent clean sheets came against sides that are currently in the bottom four places in the standings.
United's conceded 16 goals in its last seven league games at Old Trafford. It has only blanked once in its last four home games (against Crystal Palace), so we'll play both teams to score in this game. It is a fixture I would be avoiding in most instances, though.
Monday, March 10, 2025
West Ham United (+215) vs. Newcastle United (+120) - 3:00 p.m. EDT
Score prediction: West Ham United 2 – 0 Newcastle United
We're rounding off the weekend's action by backing an underdog home side to win. West Ham's won back-to-back games for the first time since Graham Potter took over. And it faces a Newcastle United side I expect to have its focus elsewhere.
The Geordies are fighting for Champions League qualification. But they have a chance to end a 70-year trophy drought next weekend. With Anthony Gordon suspended and Alexander Isak carrying a slight injury lately, I don't have enough confidence in the away side getting anything from the game.
Newcastle's league form has been poor, too. It lost three of its last four league games before being dumped out of the FA Cup last weekend. West Ham's showing signs of progress under Potter's stewardship, so we'll back that upturn in form to continue with the Hammers taking all three points.
Betting Picks
The table below gives the odds for each game's three main plays (moneyline, total goals, and both teams to score). My favorite pick from each game is highlighted if you are looking to build a parlay (which I will be playing and tracking).
| Game | Moneyline | Over/Under 2.5 goals | BTTS |
| N. Forest 0 – 2 Man City | Man City -110 | Under +130 | No +140 |
| Brighton 1 – 1 Fulham | Draw +265 | Under +110 | Yes -175 |
| C. Palace 3 – 1 Ipswich | C. Palace -210 | Over -140 | Yes -115 |
| Liverpool 3 – 0 Southampton | Liverpool -1000 | Over -450 | No -120 |
| Brentford 2 – 1 Aston Villa | Brentford +120 | Over -210 | Yes -240 |
| Wolves 1 – 2 Everton | Everton +185 | Over +125 | Yes -115 |
| Chelsea 3 – 0 Leicester | Chelsea -500 | Over -265 | No -110 |
| Tottenham 2 – 1 Bournemouth | Tottenham +135 | Over -260 | Yes -295 |
| Man United 1 – 2 Arsenal | Arsenal -140 | Over +105 | Yes -115 |
| West Ham 2 – 0 Newcastle | West Ham +215 | Under +110 | No +140 |
| Season totals | 121/279 | 138/279 | 151/279 |
| Season parlays | 2/26 (+5.47u) | 1/27 (-18.41u) | 6/27 (+17.05u) |
Good luck with those FPL teams and EPL bets. Remember to bet responsibly!
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