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Jamie Steed previews EPL Matchday 22 of the 2024-25 season, starting on 1/18/2025. He previews each game from the English Premier League, picking bets and providing predictions for each game.
The EPL season rolls on, and we're bringing you our weekly article, which looks at betting picks and predictions for all games. Matchday 22 kicks off on Saturday, January 18, with Bournemouth visiting Newcastle United. It culminates on Monday, January 20, when Chelsea hosts Wolves.
Every week, we'll offer a preview of all the games. We'll predict the outcome, give a score prediction, and pick our favorite play for all fixtures. Before you read on, remember these essential things: betting on sports should be fun. If you aren't having fun with it, stop. And never bet what you can't afford to lose.
We're bringing you more soccer content than ever before at RotoBaller. There are FPL, UCL, and DFS articles every week, along with our weekly betting picks and game previews article, all of which can be found here. Follow the team on X (@EuanFPL, @TheFPLManual, @df_solutions, @BellRoto, and yours truly @Baseball_Jimbo), and reach out to any of us if you ever have any soccer questions.
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Matchday 21 Recap
It was a heartbreaking set of midweek fixtures. While the moneyline picks didn't go well, we were on the cusp of making it back-to-back "over/under" parlays. In the final game of Matchday 21, we would hit a +700 parlay as long as there weren't two goals scored in the final 10 minutes.
Unfortunately for us, Amad Diallo went and scored a hat trick in the closing stages of Manchester United's win against Southampton and left us blanking on the midweek fixtures. A quick turnaround means we have a chance to get back to winning ways almost immediately.
Saturday, January 18, 2025
Newcastle United (-155) vs. Bournemouth (+370) - 7:30 a.m. EST
Score prediction: Newcastle United 3 – 1 Bournemouth
Newcastle extended its winning run to six league games when beating Wolves. It has scored at least two goals in eight straight EPL matches, with Alexander Isak finding the net in each. Bournemouth is riding a nine-game unbeaten streak into this weekend.
Alexander Isak becomes the fourth player to score in 8+ consecutive PL games.
Elite company ✨ pic.twitter.com/PiJID34wUP
— B/R Football (@brfootball) January 15, 2025
There have been at least three goals in Bournemouth's last six away games, with a total of 25 goals in those matches. It kept just one clean sheet on its travels, so we should be in for an action-packed start to the weekend. We'll be backing at least three goals being scored in this one.
Brentford (+450) vs. Liverpool (-195) - 10:00 a.m. EST
Score prediction: Brentford 1 – 2 Liverpool
Brentford has only won once in its last six EPL games. And that came against bottom-of-the-table Southampton. Both teams have scored in 10 of their 11 home games. Liverpool is unbeaten in 13 league games but conceded 11 goals in its last six away fixtures. We'll play an away win with both teams scoring.
Leicester City (+295) vs. Fulham (-115) - 10:00 a.m. EST
Score prediction: Leicester City 2 – 2 Fulham
Leicester has now lost its last six league games, conceding 16 goals. It has been blanked in its last three home games as poor finishing continues to blight it. Fulham's 10 away games have seen a total of 27 goals, with both teams scoring in six of their last seven. We'll be playing for plenty of goals here.
👉Leicester City: 0 Goal (21 Shots, 4 On Target, 1.53 xG)
👉Crystal Palace: 2 Goals (9 Shots, 4 On Target, 1.82 xG)#LEICRY pic.twitter.com/exsCz8VIjs
— EPL - Analytics (@DataAnalyticEPL) January 15, 2025
West Ham United (+155) vs. Crystal Palace (+175) - 10:00 a.m. EST
Score prediction: West Ham United 2 – 1 Crystal Palace
West Ham got its first win under Graham Potter on Tuesday. Palace hasn't lost any of its last six away games but lost the reverse fixture, 2-0. This should be a closely contested game and we'll take a home win with the "new manager bounce" still in effect.
Arsenal (-205) vs. Aston Villa (+550) - 12:30 p.m. EST
Score prediction: Arsenal 2 – 0 Aston Villa
Although it has struggled for goals recently, Arsenal is unbeaten in its last 11 league games and has yet to lose at home in the EPL. It had kept four straight clean sheets at home before Tottenham's goal on Wednesday.
Villa has scored just three goals in its last six away league games and blanked in three of them. Wednesday's win at Everton ended a five-game losing streak away from home. This feels like another game in which Arsenal manages to grind out a win. Regardless of the result, goals will be at a premium.
Arsenal in the Premier League this season:
◉ Fewest goals conceded (19)
◉ Fewest xG conceded (20.94)
◉ Joint-fewest xG per shot conceded (0.09)
◉ 2nd-fewest shots on target conceded (69)— WhoScored.com (@WhoScored) January 16, 2025
Sunday, January 19, 2025
Everton (+190) vs. Tottenham Hotspur (+240) - 9:00 a.m. EST
Score prediction: Everton 1 – 1 Tottenham Hotspur
David Moyes failed to get a win after his return to Goodison Park on Wednesday. It was the ninth time in their last 11 EPL games in which the Toffees failed to score. Tottenham has taken only five points from its last nine games. It has kept just one clean sheet in its last nine league games.
Tottenham has conceded two goals in each of its last three league games and a total of 13 goals in its last five EPL games. It remains without its two first-choice central defenders, so Everton should end its goal-scoring drought. We'll be backing both teams to score in this game.
Manchester United (+105) vs. Brighton (+250) - 9:00 a.m. EST
Score prediction: Manchester United 1 – 1 Brighton
Brighton won on the road for the first time in five games and ended its eight-game winless run in the league. It has now scored in all 11 of its away games this season. Thursday was the first time Brighton had kept a clean sheet on its travels in seven games.
Manchester United ended its four-game winless run in the league. Without Diallo (and poor Southampton finishing), it would have suffered a humiliating loss. It has conceded nine goals in its last four home games in the league. We should see both teams scoring in this match.
Amad (1.78) 3-1 (1.54) Southampton
— The xG Philosophy (@xGPhilosophy) January 16, 2025
Nottingham Forest (-235) vs. Southampton (+650) - 9:00 a.m. EST
Score prediction: Nottingham Forest 3 – 0 Southampton
Forest extended its unbeaten league run to seven games. It has kept five clean sheets in that streak. Southampton has scored just six goals in its 11 away games and taken only two points on its travels. This should be a comfortable home win and we'll play it safe and not risk any other pick.
Ipswich Town (+650) vs. Manchester City (-290) - 11:30 a.m. EST
Score prediction: Ipswich Town 1 – 2 Manchester City
Ipswich was blanked for the fifth time in 11 home games on Thursday. Only seven of its nine points have come at home. Just as it looked like City was getting back into form, it blew a two-goal lead late against Brentford. While it will likely win here, it's difficult to trust it.
Pep Guardiola spoke about a lack of transfer activity in the summer being a factor in the struggles. They look set to address that in January, although it won't impact this game. City has conceded two goals in six of its last seven away games, so we'll be playing both teams to score here.
🚨 Manchester City reach verbal agreement with Eintracht Frankfurt to sign striker Omar Marmoush. #MCFC / #SGE struck compromise today + now working to finalise deal. Personal terms for 25yo Egypt international no issue @TheAthleticFC after @FabriceHawkins https://t.co/Bv45xeUa91
— David Ornstein (@David_Ornstein) January 16, 2025
Monday, January 20, 2025
Chelsea (-310) vs. Wolves (+650) - 3:00 p.m. EST
Score prediction: Chelsea 4 – 1 Wolves
Chelsea salvaged a late point on Wednesday but remains without a win in the league since December 15 (five games). Wolves comes into this game on the back of consecutive 3-0 defeats in the league. The 48 goals that Wolves has conceded this season are the most in the league.
Chelsea won the reverse fixture, 6-2, and the signs are pointing toward another high-scoring win for the Blues. Cole Palmer has scored in back-to-back league games and looks to be readying for a big performance. We'll be playing a home win with at least three total goals in the game.
Betting Picks
The table below gives the odds for each game's three main plays (moneyline, total goals, and both teams to score). My favorite pick from each game is highlighted if you are looking to build a parlay (which I will be playing and tracking).
| Game | Moneyline | Over/Under 2.5 goals | BTTS |
| Newcastle 3 – 1 Bournemouth | Newcastle -155 | Over 2.5 -185 | Yes -175 |
| Brentford 1 – 2 Liverpool | Liverpool -195 | Over 2.5 -275 | Yes -210 |
| Leicester 2 – 2 Fulham | Draw +295 | Over 2.5 -140 | Yes -160 |
| West Ham 2 – 1 C. Palace | West Ham +155 | Over 2.5 -130 | Yes -165 |
| Arsenal 2 – 0 Aston Villa | Arsenal -205 | Under 2.5 -105 | No -115 |
| Everton 1 – 1 Tottenham | Draw +350 | Under 2.5 +120 | Yes -200 |
| Man United 1 – 1 Brighton | Draw +260 | Under 2.5 +120 | Yes -175 |
| N. Forest 3 – 0 Southampton | N. Forest -235 | Over 2.5 -135 | No -120 |
| Ipswich 1 – 2 Man City | Man City -290 | Over 2.5 -230 | Yes -145 |
| Chelsea 4 – 1 Wolves | Chelsea -310 | Over 2.5 -285 | Yes -170 |
| Season totals | 89/209 | 104/209 | 116/209 |
| Season parlays | 1/20 (-8.53u) | 1/21 (-12.41u) | 6/21 (+23.05u) |
Good luck with those FPL teams and EPL bets. Remember to bet responsibly!
