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The EPL season is back and so is our weekly article looking at betting picks and predictions for all games. Matchday 2 kicks off on Saturday, August 24 with Manchester United visiting Brighton. It culminates on Sunday, August 25 when Liverpool hosts Brentford.
As we did last season, we'll offer a preview of every game. We'll predict the outcome, give a score prediction, and pick our favorite play for all fixtures. Before you read on, remember these essential things: betting on sports should be fun. If you aren't having fun with it, stop. And never bet what you can't afford to lose.
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Matchday 1 Recap
Near misses were the feature of last weekend. All three parlays missed out by one goal, so we took a loss despite getting three correct scores. Tottenham Hotspur's inability to score a second goal at Leicester City on Monday ultimately saw us lose the "moneyline" parlay.
Brighton scoring a meaningless third goal against 10-man Everton denied us the "over/under 2.5 goals" parlay. Fulham blanked at Manchester United to start the weekend festivities, leaving us with a losing "both teams to score" parlay. Here's hoping for better fortunes this weekend.
Saturday, August 24, 2024
Brighton (+145) vs. Manchester United (+160) - 7:30 a.m. EDT
Brighton was the biggest winner last weekend, cruising past Everton. It couldn't have gone any better for the Premier League's youngest-ever manager, Fabian Hürzeler. Manchester United needed a late goal to avoid a potential banana skin on opening day. It could've won more comfortably.
Manchester United's home form wasn't the issue last season. It was games like this, away to sides in the top 12 that have seen it slip up so often. It does look better but so did Brighton last week. It should be an entertaining game but I expect it'll be a tight affair and both teams finding the net looks most likely.
Score prediction: Brighton 1 – 1 Manchester United
🇩🇪🧠 31-year-old Fabian Hürzeler wins his first Premier League match 3-0 with Brighton against Everton! 🔵✨
The youngest permanent manager in Premier League history makes a great impact straight away. 📈 pic.twitter.com/uTo67AyJ1L
— EuroFoot (@eurofootcom) August 17, 2024
Crystal Palace (+110) vs. West Ham United (+230) - 10:00 a.m. EDT
Palace was hard done when it lost to Brentford on Sunday. A controversially disallowed goal contributed to its 2-1 defeat. West Ham lost at home by the same scoreline. In West Ham's case, it was a scoreline that flattered it with Villa coming close multiple times.
We can look at expected goals (xG) and think West Ham was unlucky not to get at least a point last weekend. But it missed one sitter and scored a penalty, which inflated its xG. Villa routinely carved open West Ham and in Eberechi Eze, Palace has a star who could make the most of any leaky defense.
Score prediction: Crystal Palace 3 – 1 West Ham United
West Ham (2.59) 1-2 (1.95) Aston Villa
— The xG Philosophy (@xGPhilosophy) August 17, 2024
Fulham (-125) vs. Leicester City (+340) - 10:00 a.m. EDT
Fulham didn't create much at Manchester United last week. This is a completely different challenge and one it will expect to control and dominate more. Leicester's impressive draw on Monday was made possible by Tottenham missing chances. It'll need to tighten things up defensively to avoid relegation.
Fulham likely won't create as many chances as Tottenham did against Leicester. But, it likely won't be so profligate, either. Unless Leicester can show more defensive solidity, Fulham should be able to pick up the three points. Only the top eight teams won more home games than Fulham (nine) last season.
Score prediction: Fulham 2 – 1 Leicester City
Manchester City (-1200) vs. Ipswich Town (+2000) - 10:00 a.m. EDT
No Rodri, no problem for City. The champions got their title defense off to a solid start without their influential midfielder and other stars starting on the bench. Ipswich's survival won't depend on games like this or last weekend and it could be in for a torrid time on Saturday.
Manchester City's last home defeat was on November 12, 2022. It put to bed the theory it can't win without Rodri and shouldn't have any problem beating Ipswich at home. Erling Haaland could fill his boots and it's difficult to see a scenario where we don't see plenty of goals.
Score prediction: Manchester City 4 – 0 Ipswich Town
Man City win an away Premier League match without Rodri for the first time since February 2022 against Norwich!
They lost their last four without him...#CHEMCI | #TheKickOff pic.twitter.com/9Jcgezm1aI
— Premier League (@premierleague) August 18, 2024
Southampton (+150) vs. Nottingham Forest (+175) - 10:00 a.m. EDT
Southampton will have fancied its chances of getting at least a point last weekend when Newcastle was reduced to 10 men. It will need to make the most of such opportunities if it is to stay up. Forest will also feel it dropped points, conceding a late equalizer at home.
I expect both teams to be fighting for Premier League survival this season. Southampton created opportunities last weekend and Forest has goals in it with Chris Wood continuing to look like a threat. I expect both teams to score in what should be a closely fought encounter.
Score prediction: Southampton 2 – 2 Nottingham Forest
Newcastle didn't have a single shot in the second half, (xG: 0.00).
Southampton had fifteen, four on target, culminating in 1.23xG and still drew the half.
And total domination with 84% possession, have hope. 😇 #SaintsFC #NEWSOU pic.twitter.com/TYbWzXsPCB
— Saints Statistics (@TheStatsSaint) August 17, 2024
Tottenham Hotspur (-230) vs. Everton (+550) - 10:00 a.m. EDT
Tottenham rued a host of missed chances on Monday. New striker Dominic Solanke was the worst culprit and will want to get his first goal for his new club in front of the home fans. Everton was blown away against Brighton but was arguably the better team until it went a goal behind.
While I don't foresee another comprehensive defeat for Everton, I can't make a case for it to win. December 16, 2023, was the last time Everton scored more than once away from home (12 games ago). Tottenham's last home clean sheet came on October 23, 2023 (16 games ago). Both teams will likely score here.
Score prediction: Tottenham Hotspur 2 – 1 Everton
Tottenham have failed to keep a clean sheet in 11 of their last 12 games.
That one game was vs Sheffield United. pic.twitter.com/yPFmmtIlUr
— StatMuse FC (@statmusefc) August 19, 2024
Aston Villa (+310) vs. Arsenal (-125) - 12:30 p.m. EDT
Villa got its bid for another top-4 finish off to a great start. It will want to pick up as many points as possible before its Champions League campaign begins. Arsenal's performance was as professional as you'd expect from it when beating Wolves. This game will present a big challenge for it.
Arsenal lost both games against Villa last season without scoring. It'll want to right that wrong, although Villa will be very difficult to beat. Arsenal's defense has been the strongest in Europe this calendar year. It has conceded just nine EPL goals in 2024, so expect a low-scoring affair.
Score prediction: Aston Villa 1 – 1 Arsenal
Sunday, August 25, 2024
Bournemouth (+200) vs. Newcastle United (+120) - 9:00 a.m. EDT
Bournemouth began life without Dominic Solanke with a solid point at Forest. It missed last season's top scorer and will need to find a way to replicate his 19 goals from last campaign. Newcastle showed resistance in picking up a win after playing over an hour with 10 men against Southampton.
Newcastle's got plenty of attacking depth but had to be cautious after Fabian Schar's sending-off last week. I expect it to show off its attacking talents this week but also expect Bournemouth to pose a threat. It scored 15 goals in its final eight home games last season. Both teams to score looks like a solid bet.
Score prediction: Bournemouth 1 – 2 Newcastle United
Nottingham Forest 1 - 1 Bournemouth
📊 xG: 1.12 - 1.56
📊 Goal attempts: 14 - 13
📊 On target: 8 - 4⭐ xGI (H): Wood 0.72
⭐ xGI (A): Tavernier 0.7— Fantasy Football Scout (@FFScout) August 17, 2024
Wolves (+340) vs. Chelsea (-140) - 9:00 a.m. EDT
While Wolves had a decent spell against Arsenal, it didn't carry a threat. That should change at home, especially against a Chelsea team still trying to find its best starting XI. Chelsea also be going into the game having played Thursday night in the Europa Conference League.
Wolves did the double over Chelsea last season. And it's difficult to make a case for Chelsea being a better team now than it was last campaign. Wolves are well-drilled and will be tough to beat. I fancy it to further the pressure on a Chelsea team that seemingly lacks any coherent direction.
Score prediction: Wolves 1 – 0 Chelsea
Chelsea have bought another player!!!!!!!!#MNF #Chelsea
— Jamie Carragher (@Carra23) August 19, 2024
Liverpool (-400) vs. Brentford (+800) - 11:30 a.m. EDT
The Arne Slot era got off to a solid start, although Liverpool was made to work for its three points. It has an abundance of attacking threats but still seems light in midfield. The Ivan Toney saga didn't prevent Brentford from picking up three points but it's a headline issue that it'll want to resolve soon.
Liverpool (48) picked up more points at home than any other team last season. Despite conceding just 17 goals at home, Liverpool only kept one clean sheet in its final 12 home games. And that came on the final day of the season. Brentford scored in 14 of its 19 away games and both teams are set to score on Sunday.
Score prediction: Liverpool 3 – 1 Brentford
Betting Picks
The table below gives the odds for each of the three main plays for each game (moneyline, total goals, and both teams to score). My favorite pick from each game is highlighted if you are looking to build a parlay (which I will be playing and tracking).
| Game | Moneyline | Over/Under 2.5 | BTTS |
| Brighton 1 – 1 Man United | Draw +270 | U2.5 +140 | Yes -215 |
| C. Palace 3 – 1 West Ham | C. Palace +110 | O2.5 -130 | Yes -165 |
| Fulham 2 – 1 Leicester | Fulham -125 | O2.5 -125 | Yes -150 |
| Man City 4 – 0 Ipswich | Man City -1200 | O2.5 -360 | No -170 |
| Southampton 2 – 2 N. Forest | Draw +235 | O2.5 -115 | Yes -150 |
| Tottenham 2 – 1 Everton | Tottenham +230 | O2.5 -205 | Yes -160 |
| Aston Villa 1 – 1 Arsenal | Draw +280 | U2.5 +110 | Yes -170 |
| Bournemouth 1 – 2 Newcastle | Newcastle +120 | O2.5 -190 | Yes -220 |
| Wolves 1 – 0 Chelsea | Wolves +340 | U2.5 -125 | No +130 |
| Liverpool 3 – 1 Brentford | Liverpool -400 | O2.5 -340 | Yes -160 |
| Season totals | 6/10 | 5/10 | 5/10 |
| Season parlays | 0/1 (-1.00u) | 0/1 (-1.00u) | 0/1 (-1.00u) |
Good luck with those FPL teams and EPL bets. Remember to bet responsibly!
