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The EPL season rolls on, and we're bringing you our weekly article, which looks at betting picks and predictions for all games. Matchday 19 kicks off on Sunday, December 29, with Manchester City visiting Leicester City. It culminates on Wednesday, January 1, when Brentford hosts Arsenal.
Every week, we'll offer a preview of all the games. We'll predict the outcome, give a score prediction, and pick our favorite play for all fixtures. Before you read on, remember these essential things: betting on sports should be fun. If you aren't having fun with it, stop. And never bet what you can't afford to lose.
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Matchday 18 Recap
The less said about Matchday 18, the better. Red cards and penalty misses derailed any chances we had and we didn't come close to winning a parlay. In fact, despite going 5-for-10 in our over/under picks, the five we got wrong contained our parlay picks.
Hopefully, we don't see another week of results and incidents like we did on Boxing Day. With another quick turnaround, we have a truncated write-up this week. But the research levels maintained so fingers crossed we get back to winning ways.
Sunday, December 29, 2024
Leicester City (+700) vs. Manchester City (-300) - 9:30 a.m. EST
Score prediction: Leicester City 1 – 2 Manchester City
Manchester City's awful run of form continued and their defense is one of the leakiest in Europe. Since Ruud van Nistelrooy took charge at Leicester, the Foxes have conceded 12 goals in four EPL games. Expect goals here and they're the markets we'll be focusing on.
📊 As at the time Ilman N'Diaye scored for Everton yesterday, Manchester City have conceded 26 goals across all competitions since the start of November.
Only Heidenheim has a poorer defence, 28 goals conceded, amongst all the teams in Europe top five leagues in that period. pic.twitter.com/Qw39ohid3b
— H/F (@hfworld_) December 27, 2024
Crystal Palace (-165) vs. Southampton (+450) - 10:00 a.m. EST
Score prediction: Crystal Palace 2 – 0 Southampton
Southampton's failed to score in four straight games. Their four away goals are the fewest in the EPL. Arsenal's the only team to have beaten Palace in their last seven league games. Southampton look more organised since sacking Russell Martin but a home win is on the cards in this one.
Everton (+160) vs. Nottingham Forest (+185) - 10:00 a.m. EST
Score prediction: Everton 1 – 1 Nottingham Forest
Everton's drawn their last three games. Given they were against Arsenal, Chelsea, and Manchester City, they'd have taken that. Forest's run will be halted sooner rather than later. In what looks like being a tight and cagey game, a draw looks appealing in this one.
Sean Dyche making a good case for keeping his job in the Friedkin era. He’s not fashionable, he’s not that loved by all Everton fans but he organises and motivates teams well. On a budget. James Tarkowski embodies a Dyche team. Unspectacular, determined, effective. Friedkins may…
— Henry Winter (@henrywinter) December 26, 2024
Fulham (+140) vs. Bournemouth (+190) - 10:00 a.m. EST
Score prediction: Fulham 2 – 2 Bournemouth
Fulham's nine home games have produced 27 goals with both teams scoring in eight of them. Bournemouth's nine away games have produced 30 goals with both teams scoring in six of them. We'll be playing over 2.5 total goals and both teams to find the net.
Tottenham Hotspur (-150) vs. Wolves (+340) - 10:00 a.m. EST
Score prediction: Tottenham Hotspur 2 – 1 Wolves
Tottenham's defensive crisis worsened on Boxing Day and they may be without a regular centre-back for this game. No team has conceded more goals than Wolves (40) this season. We should see goals at both ends so we'll be taking the over and both teams to score bets.
"Definitely a first for me"
Ange Postecoglou says he hasn't experienced an injury crisis like Tottenham have endured this season but insists they will deal with it 👇 pic.twitter.com/tSs7cZPuDE
— Sky Sports News (@SkySportsNews) December 27, 2024
West Ham United (+600) vs. Liverpool (-250) - 12:15 p.m. EST
Score prediction: West Ham United 1 – 3 Liverpool
Liverpool's last four EPL games have seen a total of 23 goals, with at least four being scored in each of them. Seven of West Ham's nine home games have seen at least three goals scored in them. We'll be keeping it simple and just take over 2.5 goals as our play in this one.
Monday, December 30, 2024
Aston Villa (-105) vs. Brighton (+260) - 2:45 p.m. EST
Score prediction: Aston Villa 2 – 1 Brighton
Villa's been beaten at home just once this season and that was against Arsenal in their first home fixture of the season. Brighton comes into this game without a win in their last five games. We'll be backing a home win here.
Ipswich Town (+600) vs. Chelsea (-235) - 2:45 p.m. EST
Score prediction: Ipswich Town 0 – 2 Chelsea
Ipswich remains in the relegation zone but has been difficult to beat. Six of their nine home games have been decided by one goal. However, they haven't won at home this season. We won't risk anything and just take an away win as Chelsea should bounce back from their shock defeat against Fulham.
Manchester United (+170) vs. Newcastle United (+145) - 3:00 p.m. EST
Score prediction: Manchester United 1 – 2 Newcastle United
Ruben Amorim is under no illusions as to how difficult the job at Manchester United is. Four defeats in seven EPL games might still not be rock bottom. Newcastle's won their last three league games and scored 19 goals in their last six games in all competitions.
While I do like taking an away win, we've seen how a red card or big incident can completely alter the outcome of a game. We'll not risk things too much and just go with both teams scoring and at least three total goals.
🚨 Rúben Amorim: “Manchester United manager cannot be comfortable. I know the business that I'm in”.
“I know if we don't win, I know that every manager is in danger and I like that!”.
“I'm here, full focus, difficult moments is part of football. I knew it was gonna tough”. pic.twitter.com/yHNYaUUaVu
— Fabrizio Romano (@FabrizioRomano) December 27, 2024
Wednesday, January 1, 2025
Brentford (+550) vs. Arsenal (-225) - 12:30 p.m. EST
Score prediction: Brentford 1 – 1 Arsenal
Arsenal's first game with Bukayo Saka wasn't the most convincing from an attacking sense. Brentford suffered a first home defeat of the season and followed that with a goalless draw at Brighton. This game is in the balance and might not be as high-scoring as many expect.
Given Brentford's defeat against Nottingham Forest on Matchday 17 was the first time both teams failed to score in a Brentford home game. And Arsenal's failed to keep a clean sheet in any of their last seven away games, we'll play both teams to score here.
Betting Picks
The table below gives the odds for each game's three main plays (moneyline, total goals, and both teams to score). My favorite pick from each game is highlighted if you are looking to build a parlay (which I will be playing and tracking).
| Game | Moneyline | Over/Under 2.5 goals | BTTS |
| Leicester 1 – 2 Man City | Man City -300 | Over 2.5 -270 | Yes -155 |
| C. Palace 2 – 0 Southampton | C. Palace -165 | Under 2.5 +105 | No +105 |
| Everton 1 – 1 N. Forest | Draw +215 | Under 2.5 -155 | Yes -115 |
| Fulham 2 – 2 Bournemouth | Draw +255 | Over 2.5 -150 | Yes -190 |
| Tottenham 2 – 1 Wolves | Tottenham -150 | Over 2.5 -290 | Yes -255 |
| West Ham 1 – 3 Liverpool | Liverpool -250 | Over 2.5 -260 | Yes -170 |
| A. Villa 2 – 1 Brighton | A. Villa -105 | Over 2.5 -175 | Yes -190 |
| Ipswich 0 – 2 Chelsea | Chelsea -235 | Under 2.5 +175 | No +125 |
| Man United 1 – 2 Newcastle | Newcastle +145 | Over 2.5 -165 | Yes -195 |
| Brentford 1 – 1 Arsenal | Draw +370 | Under 2.5 +135 | Yes -140 |
| Season totals | 78/179 | 86/179 | 99/179 |
| Season parlays | 1/17 (-5.53u) | 0/18 (-18.00u) | 6/18 (+26.05u) |
Good luck with those FPL teams and EPL bets. Remember to bet responsibly!
