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The EPL season rolls on and we're bringing you our weekly article looking at betting picks and predictions for all games. Matchday 16 kicks off on Saturday, December 14, with four games at 10:00 a.m. EST. It culminates on Monday, December 16, when Bournemouth hosts West Ham United.
Every week, we'll offer a preview of all the games. We'll predict the outcome, give a score prediction, and pick our favorite play for all fixtures. Before you read on, remember these essential things: betting on sports should be fun. If you aren't having fun with it, stop. And never bet what you can't afford to lose.
We're bringing you more soccer content than ever before at RotoBaller. There are FPL, UCL, and DFS articles every week, along with our weekly betting picks and game previews article, all of which can be found here. Follow the team on X (@EuanFPL, @TheFPLManual, @df_solutions, @BellRoto, and yours truly @Baseball_Jimbo), and reach out to any of us if you ever have any soccer questions.
Matchday 15 Recap
Matchday 15 got off to an inauspicious start when the Merseyside Derby was postponed due to the weather. Thankfully, it didn't hurt us as our moneyline parlay wouldn't have cashed anyway. Aston Villa did manage to disappoint us when the action eventually got underway last Saturday.
It only beat Southampton 1-0, ultimately denying us our first over/under parlay of the season. Once again, we managed to hit our "both teams to score" parlay. That meant we doubled our money for the week and continued our impressive number of winning parlays for that particular bet.
Saturday, December 14, 2024
Arsenal (-400) vs. Everton (+1000) - 10:00 a.m. EST
Score prediction: Arsenal 2 – 0 Everton
Everton has had more time to prepare following last weekend's postponement. While it managed to end a four-game goalless streak last time out, it was against the league's leakiest defense. Everton was also aided by two own goals. I still expect a home win, but this may be a tighter game than many think.
Arsenal's been struggling to score goals from open play recently. It has scored 11 goals in its last four EPL games and has been creating chances. It feels like the floodgates will open for the Gunners soon. But probably not against a stubborn Everton defense. Under 2.5 goals is our play.
“The amount of entries we have in the box is more than any other team”
Mikel Arteta wants Arsenal to improve their goalscoring in open play, but knows they're creating the chances 💪
🎙@Laura_Woodsy | 📺 @tntsports & @discoveryplusUK pic.twitter.com/gm4JbCQUmM
— Football on TNT Sports (@footballontnt) December 11, 2024
Liverpool (-310) vs. Fulham (+750) - 10:00 a.m. EST
Score prediction: Liverpool 2 – 1 Fulham
Despite not playing last weekend, Liverpool was a beneficiary with Manchester City and Arsenal drawing. The latter to this week's opponents. After blanking in the opening game of the season, Fulham has scored in every game since.
Liverpool's last two home games saw it keep clean sheets but it came again massively out-of-form Aston Villa and Manchester City. Fulham has enough talent to score a goal, making the "both teams to score" play the most appealing.
Newcastle United (-330) vs. Leicester City (+800) - 10:00 a.m. EST
Newcastle has now gone four games without a win and conceded seven goals in its last two matches. Leicester has picked up four points in two games since Ruud van Nistelrooy took over, scoring five goals in the process. Both teams finding the net here looks most appealing.
At these odds, there's also a strong case to be made for Leicester to win or draw. It has looked energized in its last two games and could cause Newcastle problems. Backing it to avoid defeat is something that can be sprinkled into any moneyline parlay plays.
Ruud van Nistelrooy has made a difference at Leicester already!#MOTD2 #BBCFootball pic.twitter.com/DaWVGo4CWZ
— Match of the Day (@BBCMOTD) December 8, 2024
Score prediction: Newcastle United 1 – 1 Leicester City
Wolves (-110) vs. Ipswich Town (+280) - 10:00 a.m. EST
Score prediction: Wolves 3 – 2 Ipswich Town
After back-to-back wins looked like kickstarting Wolves' season, it has lost its last three games, conceding 10 goals in the process. It was unfortunate on Monday with some questionable penalty decisions not going its way. Keeping the ball out of its net is its biggest problem.
Ipswich also comes into the weekend on the back of three straight defeats. All three losses were by one goal as it just can't seem to get over the line in games. Both teams will believe this is a game they can (and must) win. That should lead to some goals, so we'll skip backing a winner and play the goal markets.
Nottingham Forest (+165) vs. Aston Villa (+170) - 12:30 p.m. EST
Score prediction: Nottingham Forest 1 – 2 Aston Villa
After going eight games without a win in all competitions, Villa's midweek win at RB Leipzig was its third straight victory. Forest's first win at Old Trafford in 30 years came courtesy of some catastrophic Manchester United defending and goalkeeping. Villa won't be as generous.
While I do fancy an away win based on Villa's uptick in form, it's not at a price I'd be comfortable backing. I do think we see at least three goals. Three of Forest's last four EPL games have seen at least three goals. The same goes for Villa. I'm taking over 2.5 total goals here.
Sunday, December 15, 2024
Brighton (-110) vs. Crystal Palace (+280) - 9:00 a.m. EST
Score prediction: Brighton 1 – 0 Crystal Palace
Brighton and Crystal Palace have one of the more unusual rivalries in the EPL. Palace hasn't won any of the last six "M23 Derbies," although four of them were drawn. Palace's form has been better in recent weeks and it comes into the weekend on the back of a four-game unbeaten run.
Brighton's not won in its last three games but still sits seventh in the table. Eight of the last 10 meetings between these two saw fewer than three goals scored. We'll take Brighton to win but also play the under 2.5 total goals, which should give us some security in our parlays.
Manchester City (-180) vs. Manchester United (+400) - 11:30 a.m. EST
Score prediction: Manchester City 3 – 1 Manchester United
City had been showing signs of life recently. Its midweek Champions League defeat at Juventus may have derailed any momentum it was building. United lost any momentum from the "new manager bounce" with back-to-back defeats. This game could go either way.
City's kept just one clean sheet in its last 10 matches in all competitions. It conceded at least two goals in each of the other nine games. United's kept just one clean sheet in the six games since Ruben Amorim took charge. However this game plays out, expect goals.
Chelsea (-290) vs. Brentford (+650) - 2:00 p.m. EST
Score prediction: Chelsea 3 – 0 Brentford
Chelsea heads into the weekend on the back of a four-game winning streak in the league. It has scored 14 goals in that span. Brentford's home and away records are vastly different. No team has more points (22) and goals (26) at home than the Bees. They've picked up just one point on their travels.
Only twice has Brentford failed to score away from home (seven games). But it has yet to score more than once in an away game. It's difficult to gauge how good Brentford is given its opponents at home but a Chelsea win seems like a lock here. We'll play it safe and just go with a home victory.
"They're better than Liverpool at Anfield and worse than Southampton away from home!" 😅
HTO and Umir on Brentford's home and away form this season 🤔 pic.twitter.com/9guJz1qdif
— The Overlap (@WeAreTheOverlap) December 11, 2024
Southampton (+310) vs. Tottenham Hotspur (-140) - 2:00 p.m. EST
Score prediction: Southampton 1 – 3 Tottenham Hotspur
The Tottenham experience has been in full effect lately. Since beating Manchester City 4-0 away, it has taken one point in three games. Southampton remain rooted to the foot of the table, and as erratic as Tottenham has been, an away win looks certain.
We'll add in both teams scoring as well, given Tottenham's defensive frailties. Southampton's scored in each of its last five home games, so a goal at both ends seems likely.
Monday, December 16, 2024
Bournemouth (-140) vs. West Ham United (+320) - 3:00 p.m. EST
Score prediction: Bournemouth 2 – 1 West Ham United
West Ham's victory against Wolves gave Julen Lopetegui some breathing room. West Ham's previous four league wins were followed by a defeat. And that is how things are set to play out again. Bournemouth has already beaten three of last season's top five at home this season. Another home win is on the cards.
Betting Picks
The table below gives the odds for each game's three main plays (moneyline, total goals, and both teams to score). My favorite pick from each game is highlighted if you are looking to build a parlay (which I will be playing and tracking).
| Game | Moneyline | Over/Under 2.5 goals | BTTS |
| Arsenal 2 – 0 Everton | Arsenal -400 | Under 2.5 +120 | No -160 |
| Liverpool 2 – 1 Fulham | Liverpool -310 | Over 2.5 -215 | Yes -125 |
| Newcastle 1 – 1 Leicester | Draw +475 | Under 2.5 +170 | Yes -125 |
| Wolves 3 – 2 Ipswich | Wolves -110 | Over 2.5 -140 | Yes -165 |
| N. Forest 1 – 2 A. Villa | A. Villa +170 | Over 2.5 -120 | Yes -160 |
| Brighton 1 – 0 C. Palace | Brighton -110 | Under 2.5 +105 | No +125 |
| Man City 3 – 1 Man United | Man City -180 | Over 2.5 -230 | Yes -190 |
| Chelsea 3 – 0 Brentford | Chelsea -290 | Over 2.5 -300 | No +135 |
| Southampton 1 – 3 Tottenham | Tottenham -140 | Over 2.5 -330 | Yes -295 |
| Bournemouth 2 – 1 West Ham | Bournemouth -140 | Over 2.5 -190 | Yes -185 |
| Season totals | 68/149 | 67/149 | 84/149 |
| Season parlays | 1/14 (-2.53u) | 0/15 (-15.00u) | 6/15 (+29.05u) |
Good luck with those FPL teams and EPL bets. Remember to bet responsibly!
