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The EPL season rolls on and we're bringing you our weekly article looking at betting picks and predictions for all games. Matchday 12 kicks off on Saturday, November 23, with Chelsea visiting Leicester City. It culminates on Monday, November 25, when West Ham United visits Newcastle United.
Every week, we'll offer a preview of all the games. We'll predict the outcome, give a score prediction, and pick our favorite play for all fixtures. Before you read on, remember these essential things: betting on sports should be fun. If you aren't having fun with it, stop. And never bet what you can't afford to lose.
We're bringing you more soccer content than ever before at RotoBaller. There are FPL, UCL, and DFS articles every week, along with our weekly betting picks and game previews article, all of which can be found here. Follow the team on X (@EuanFPL, @TheFPLManual, @df_solutions, @BellRoto, and yours truly @Baseball_Jimbo), and reach out to any of us if you ever have any soccer questions.
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Matchday 11 Recap
Our winning streak came to an end a fortnight ago. Despite getting more picks right than wrong across all three bet types, things didn't go our way. Nottingham Forest just needed to win on the Sunday slate to give us a big moneyline parlay. Despite leading 1-0, it went on to lose.
Liverpool beat Aston Villa 2-0 in a game that we needed at least three goals in. A third goal in the game would have hit us a monster parlay and taken us into profit for the "over/under" plays on the season. Instead, Villa contrived not to score and left us licking our wounds.
Liverpool (2.34) 2-0 (1.76) Aston Villa
— The xG Philosophy (@xGPhilosophy) November 9, 2024
We head into a busy period of games after a third international break of the season. We also have European competitions in midweek, so this weekend feels difficult to navigate. Especially with some really close-looking games on paper. We'll be playing things safer than normal this week.
Saturday, November 23, 2024
Leicester City (+475) vs. Chelsea (-195) - 7:30 a.m. EST
After picking up back-to-back wins, Leicester's taken just one point from its last three games. It has also conceded seven goals in those three games. Chelsea's draw at home to Arsenal kept it in third place. The 12 goals it has scored away from home are the most in the league.
Score prediction: Leicester City 1 – 3 Chelsea
Although he left Leicester amicably after guiding it back to the EPL, Enzo Maresca will be eager to get one over his former employers. Leicester has shown glimpses as to why it can avoid an immediate relegation. But Chelsea should have too much for it and an away win is on the cards.
🗣️ Enzo Maresca on his return to #LCFC. "The owner and his family are fantastic people. They care for the players and staff. [Leicester chair] Top is fantastic. I had a fantastic connection with the players and staff. I will be thankful all my life to that squad. I am still in… pic.twitter.com/QIzyB0xlxO
— Ben Jacobs (@JacobsBen) November 21, 2024
Arsenal (-295) vs. Nottingham Forest (+800) - 10:00 a.m. EST
Arsenal will be looking to end its run of four league games without a win. The Gunners are unbeaten at home despite being nine points adrift of the league leaders. Forest's defeat against Newcastle was only its second this season. It is unbeaten away from home, with three wins and two draws.
Score prediction: Arsenal 3 – 1 Nottingham Forest
Against Chelsea, Arsenal looked much more of an attacking threat with captain Martin Ødegaard in the team. His absence had been felt and Arsenal will likely be a more cohesive attacking unit. Forest has scored in all its away games, and with Arsenal's defensive issues, that seems likely to continue.
Aston Villa (-165) vs. Crystal Palace (+425) - 10:00 a.m. EST
The international break came at a good time for Villa. Four straight defeats in all competitions saw it exit the EFL Cup and now sit ninth in the league. Palace has been unable to build on its first league win of the season. It has picked up just one point from its two games since defeating Tottenham.
Score prediction: Aston Villa 2 – 0 Crystal Palace
Villa's been finding goals hard to come by. It has failed to score more than once in any of its last five games. Only Southampton (seven) has scored fewer goals than Palace (eight). Although I expect a low-scoring affair, it's tough to see anything other than Villa bouncing back with a win.
Bournemouth (+140) vs. Brighton (+180) - 10:00 a.m. EST
After picking up seven points in three games against a trio of last season's top four, Bournemouth lost at Brentford. Ten of Bournemouth's 15 points have come at home. Brighton's impressive win against Manchester City moved it level on points with third place and maintained its unbeaten home record.
Score prediction: Bournemouth 1 – 1 Brighton
There's a good case to be made for either team to win. It looks like being a close game and I fancy a draw. However, we'll play both teams scoring for our parlay. Bournemouth has scored in all five home games, while Brighton has scored in all five away games. It seems the safest option in a close fixture.
Fabian Hürzeler was asked how difficult it is to decide who starts in attack, given the number of options Brighton have:
Excerpt: "We had players who played before, now new players come back from the injury and that's very important for the competition, also in training..." pic.twitter.com/nJjg9mltVg
— Instinctive (@FPL_Instinctive) November 21, 2024
Everton (+140) vs. Brentford (+195) - 10:00 a.m. EST
Everton's goalless draw at West Ham was its second consecutive blank. The Toffees have lost just once in their last seven EPL games, despite scoring just six goals. Brentford's win a fortnight ago has left it with the best home record in the league. But it is yet to win on its travels.
Score prediction: Everton 1 – 1 Brentford
If this was a home game for Brentford, I'd back the Bees to win. However, they've lost all five away games, scoring just four goals. There's been a total of five goals in Everton's last five games and no more than two in any of them. We'll be going with the form and playing under 2.5 total goals here.
Fulham (-150) vs. Wolves (+400) - 10:00 a.m. EST
Fulham's victory against Crystal Palace moved it within a point of third place. It extended its unbeaten league run to three games. Wolves also come into this week with a three-game unbeaten streak after beating Southampton. It has been picking up points after a tough start to the season.
Score prediction: Fulham 2 – 2 Wolves
Wolves sitting in 19th place is largely down to how difficult its schedule was to begin the season. It has remained competitive and scored 10 goals in its last five games. Both teams have scored in nine of Wolves' 11 games and eight of Fulham's 11 games. We'll be backing a high-scoring game.
Manchester City (-200) vs. Tottenham Hotspur (+450) - 12:30 p.m. EST
City is coming into this weekend on the back of four straight defeats in all competitions. That includes a 2-1 defeat at Tottenham in the EFL Cup. City will be hoping Pep Guardiola's contract extension lifts it to a much-needed win.
BREAKING: Pep Guardiola signs a two-year contract extension with Manchester City 🚨 pic.twitter.com/Q73CXEiNFU
— Sky Sports News (@SkySportsNews) November 21, 2024
Tottenham became the first team to lose to Ipswich this season. That came on the back of a 4-1 win against Aston Villa. Matchday 9 saw Tottenham become the first team to lose to Crystal Palace this season. That came on the back of a 4-1 win against West Ham United. It is unpredictable!
Score prediction: Manchester City 3 – 2 Tottenham Hotspur
Who knows what version of Tottenham turns up this week. What we do know is there should be goals. City has scored in all 11 EPL games this season, keeping just two clean sheets. Both teams have scored in seven of Tottenham's 11 games. We'll just back both teams to score and at least three total goals.
Sunday, November 24, 2024
Southampton (+900) vs. Liverpool (-360) - 9:00 a.m. EST
Southampton couldn't build on its first league win of the season and finds itself firmly rooted to the foot of the table. Liverpool is now five points clear at the opposite end of the table. It is one of two sides yet to lose away from home this season.
Score prediction: Southampton 0 – 2 Liverpool
We're just playing safe here and backing an away win to boost the moneyline parlay. Although Southampton has only scored four goals at home, it has scored in each of the last three. Liverpool has not scored three goals in any of its last six EPL games. A narrow but comfortable win seems likely.
Ipswich Town (+390) vs. Manchester United (-160) - 11:30 a.m. EST
Ipswich's first league win of the season at Tottenham saw it move out of the relegation zone. It is still seeking a first home win of the campaign. United will be led by new head coach Ruben Amorim. He will be hoping to build on its 3-0 win a fortnight ago.
Score prediction: Ipswich Town 1 – 3 Manchester United
While a United win does seem appealing at those odds, we'll play both teams to score and over 2.5 total goals. Ipswich may be buoyed by its first league win of the season, and we should see United playing in a completely different system and with a fresh new style.
Amorim has a reputation for getting his team to play attacking football, something that's been lacking at United for some time. It could very well hit the ground running and win this by a handsome margin. It should also lead to chances for the home side, hence our picks.
The entire Ruben Amorim interview was brilliant, but this part right here is the cherry on the cake. pic.twitter.com/HVEaNmodcT
— ☈ッ (@TheFergusonWay) November 16, 2024
Monday, November 25, 2024
Newcastle United (-195) vs. West Ham United (+500) - 3:00 p.m. EST
Newcastle looks like it has gotten over its rough patch with back-to-back league wins and reaching the quarterfinal of the EFL Cup. West Ham cannot find any consistency or rhythm. It has yet to have consecutive games with the same result in the league this season.
Score prediction: Newcastle United 2 – 0 West Ham United
Newcastle appears to have turned the corner, while West Ham keeps stuttering. The Hammers have lost their last two away games, conceding seven goals in the process. They've also blanked in their last two league games. A home win looks like being a banker to round off this week's action.
Betting Picks
The table below gives the odds for each game's three main plays (moneyline, total goals, and both teams to score). My favorite pick from each game is highlighted if you are looking to build a parlay (which I will be playing and tracking).
| Game | Moneyline | Over/Under 2.5 goals | BTTS |
| Leicester 1 – 3 Chelsea | Chelsea -195 | Over -205 | Yes -170 |
| Arsenal 3 – 1 N. Forest | Arsenal -295 | Over -135 | Yes +110 |
| A. Villa 2 – 0 C. Palace | A. Villa -165 | Under +110 | No +115 |
| Bournemouth 1 – 1 Brighton | Draw +245 | Under +130 | Yes -220 |
| Everton 1 – 1 Brentford | Draw +230 | Under -105 | Yes -170 |
| Fulham 2 – 2 Wolves | Draw +290 | Over -150 | Yes -155 |
| Man City 3 – 2 Tottenham | Man City -200 | Over -280 | Yes -220 |
| Southampton 0 – 2 Liverpool | Liverpool -360 | Under +165 | No -110 |
| Ipswich 1 – 3 Man United | Man United -160 | Over -175 | Yes -165 |
| Newcastle 2 – 0 West Ham | Newcastle -195 | Under +135 | No +110 |
| Season totals | 51/110 | 47/110 | 59/110 |
| Season parlays | 1/11 (+0.47u) | 0/11 (-11.00u) | 4/11 (+21.35u) |
Good luck with those FPL teams and EPL bets. Remember to bet responsibly!
