EPL Betting Picks and Game Previews for Matchday 11: English Premier League

The EPL season rolls on and we're bringing you our weekly article looking at betting picks and predictions for all games. Matchday 11 kicks off on Saturday, November 9, with four games starting at 10:00 a.m. It culminates on Sunday, November 10, when Arsenal visits Chelsea.

Every week, we'll offer a preview of all the games. We'll predict the outcome, give a score prediction, and pick our favorite play for all fixtures. Before you read on, remember these essential things: betting on sports should be fun. If you aren't having fun with it, stop. And never bet what you can't afford to lose.

We're bringing you more soccer content than ever before at RotoBaller. There are FPL, UCL, and DFS articles every week, along with our weekly betting picks and game previews article, all of which can be found here. Follow the team on X (@EuanFPL, @TheFPLManual, @df_solutions, @BellRoto, and yours truly @Baseball_Jimbo), and reach out to any of us if you ever have any soccer questions.

Matchday 10 Recap

It was another profitable weekend with a fifth consecutive week of hitting a parlay. Once again, we needed a late goal to bag our "both teams to score" parlay. Fulham obliged with two injury-time goals. It was a weekend that threw up some surprising scorelines, too.

Arsenal and Manchester City losing would have hurt many bettors, including us. We did predict the correct scores in both games, albeit with the opposite results. All in all, it was a solid, profitable week, so we'll take it and look to roll this streak into Matchday 11.

Saturday, November 9, 2024

Brentford (+145) vs. Bournemouth (+180) - 10:00 a.m. EST

Fulham's injury-time fightback on Monday left Brentford still without a point on its travels. It is unbeaten at home. Bournemouth made it back-to-back home wins by beating Manchester City and having already beaten Arsenal two weeks prior. It is now unbeaten in its last three games.

Score prediction: Brentford 3 – 1 Bournemouth

Brentford has taken 13 points from a possible 15 at home. No team has scored more home goals than the Bees (15). Brentford's home games average 4.8 goals. Bournemouth has yet to keep a clean sheet on its travels, and despite a couple of impressive home wins recently, a Brentford victory in a high-scoring game is our play.

Brentford's attack this season:

Home Games:

xG - 12.9 (Ranked 1st)
Goals - 15 (Ranked 1st)

Opponents - CRY, SOU, WHU, WOL, IPS

Away Games:

xG - 3.8 (Ranked 20th)
Goals - 4 (Ranked 19th)

Opponents - LIV, MCI, MUN, TOT, FUL

Insanely difficult fixtures away from home. #FPL pic.twitter.com/aZGuUsO855

— Fantasypaedia (@Fantasypaedia) November 6, 2024

Crystal Palace (+160) vs. Fulham (+170) - 10:00 a.m. EST

After taking three points from its opening eight games, Palace has picked up four points from its last two matches. Five of its seven points have come at home. Fulham's late heroics moved it into the top half of the table. It has taken four points from its last two games.

Score prediction: Crystal Palace 1 – 2 Fulham

Palace appears to have turned a corner but will be without Eberechi Eze. It has struggled to create chances and score goals with Eze, so I'm backing Fulham to win this game with the players it has. It's a bit of a gut call but Fulham has looked a better side so far this season.

West Ham United (+115) vs. Everton (+245) - 10:00 a.m. EST

West Ham cannot build any momentum. It has now followed up its last two wins with defeats by three goals and finds itself entrenched in the bottom half of the table. Everton's five-game unbeaten run was halted by Southampton. A win here would see it leapfrog the Hammers in the standings.

Score prediction: West Ham United 0 – 0 Everton

I have zero desire to focus on this game for FPL and think we could see a goalless draw for the first time since Matchday 7. West Ham will be without Mohammed Kudus for an extended period and Everton's blanked in two of its last four games. All signs point to a low-scoring affair.

BREAKING: West Ham's Mohammed Kudus has his three match ban extended to five matches by the FA after being sent off against Tottenham last month 🟥 pic.twitter.com/newppgRsOu

— Sky Sports News (@SkySportsNews) November 6, 2024

Wolves (-105) vs. Southampton (+260) - 10:00 a.m. EST

Wolves were denied a first league win by Crystal Palace's late equalizer. That made it consecutive 2-2 draws for the side sitting bottom of the league. Southampton needed VAR to help it secure a much-needed win. Its first victory in the EPL wasn't enough to lift it out of the relegation zone.

Score prediction: Wolves 2 – 1 Southampton

Wolves have been teasing a win, and despite sitting in 20th place, Brentford (19) is the only side in the bottom half to have scored more goals than Wolves (14). No team has conceded more goals than Wolves (27). I'm expecting a home win but both teams to score looks just as likely.

Brighton (+320) vs. Manchester City (-130) - 12:30 p.m. EST

Brighton failed to hold onto its lead at Anfield, eventually losing 2-1 for a second straight season. Manchester City lost for the first time in the league this calendar year. It followed that up by getting hammered 4-1 by Sporting Lisbon in the Champions League on Tuesday.

Score prediction: Brighton 1 – 1 Manchester City

I would normally back City to win at these odds. But even before last week's defeat, its form hasn't been what we expect from it. Its previous six EPL games were drawn or won by one goal. I expect both teams to score, but without Kevin De Bruyne, City (and Erling Haaland) have been struggling.

Erling Haaland for Man City since telling Arteta to stay humble

7 games
8.5 xG
1 goal
1 penalty missed
0 assists

Humbled? pic.twitter.com/rcPy1WJ9ky

— Shady (@FodenPrime) November 5, 2024

Liverpool (-215) vs. Aston Villa (+475) - 3:00 p.m. EST

Liverpool returned to the summit following its win against Brighton. It followed that up with a 4-0 Champions League win against Leverkusen. Villa's form has been dipping with just one win in its last five EPL games. An inexplicable moment saw it lose its midweek Champions League tie.

Club Brugge are awarded a penalty after Tyrone Mings picks the ball up inside his own area 😳

📺 @tntsports & @discoveryplusUK pic.twitter.com/wpAqjMW8pn

— Football on TNT Sports (@footballontnt) November 6, 2024

Score prediction: Liverpool 3 – 1 Aston Villa

A month ago, I'd have predicted a close game and possible upset. However, Villa's form hasn't been good enough lately to back up picking an away win. It does still have enough quality to cause an upset, but we'll stick to playing the picks for a high-scoring encounter.

Despite having the league's best defensive record, Liverpool has kept just one clean sheet in its last five league games. Villa has scored in four of its last five EPL fixtures, even though it has won just one of them. Both teams scoring and over 2.5 total goals are the plays in this game.

Sunday, November 10, 2024

Manchester United (-265) vs. Leicester City (+600) - 9:00 a.m. EST

United's first league game since sacking Erik ten Hag didn't go as well as its Carabao Cup game earlier in the week (against Sunday's opponent). Leicester's late equalizer at Ipswich Town prevented it from suffering back-to-back league defeats for the first time this season.

Score prediction: Manchester United 2 – 1 Leicester City

As alluded to, United thumped Leicester 5-2 in its Carabao Cup tie last week. Leicester will field a much different starting XI this weekend and I don't expect United to be that gung-ho. I do still expect goals with Leicester's five away games seeing a total of 20 goals. We should see at least three goals here.

Nottingham Forest (+175) vs. Newcastle United (+160) - 9:00 a.m. EST

Forest's impressive start to the season continued. A third consecutive win saw it move into third place. Newcastle halted its five-game winless streak by beating an out-of-sorts Arsenal squad. It was a win built on a solid defensive display, something it will look to build on.

Score prediction: Nottingham Forest 1 – 0 Newcastle United

The odds in this game do surprise me. Forest has been in excellent form to start the season, while Newcastle's form hasn't been nearly as good. I'd also consider taking the under for total goals. But the home side being priced as underdogs when it has been a better team this season is too good to turn down.

Nottingham Forest may only remain in the top three of the Premier League table briefly depending on results on Sunday.

But what is not in doubt is that, after 10 games, they deserve to be there and are in this position on merit.https://t.co/nV3FTwiWNJ pic.twitter.com/u3jyHjBryK

— The Athletic (@TheAthletic) November 3, 2024

Tottenham Hotspur (-400) vs. Ipswich Town (+850) - 9:00 a.m. EST

Tottenham recovered from a first-half deficit to dispatch a Villa team struggling for form. It was the fourth time in five home games in which it has scored at least three goals. Ipswich once again shot itself in the foot and failed to secure a first league win of the season last weekend.

Score prediction: Tottenham Hotspur 4 – 1 Ipswich Town

Tottenham's propensity to concede first at home hasn't stopped it from picking up 12 points from a possible 15 at home. It has kept just one clean sheet in those games but no team has conceded more goals on its travels than Ipswich (13). We should see plenty of goals in this one.

👑 𝐂𝐨𝐦𝐞𝐛𝐚𝐜𝐤 𝐊𝐢𝐧𝐠𝐬 👑 (as long as they're at home)

Tottenham are conceding the first goal of games far too often this season.

It doesn't seem to be a problem at home, so why do they struggle when playing away?@alitweedale takes a look at the numbers 👇

— Opta Analyst (@OptaAnalyst) November 7, 2024

Chelsea (+185) vs. Arsenal (+140) - 11:30 a.m. EST

Despite a solid point after coming from a goal down to draw at Manchester United, Chelsea has now won just once in its last four EPL games. It's a similar story for Arsenal with just one point taken from its last three games. It also controversially lost at Internazionale in the Champions League on Wednesday.

Score prediction: Chelsea 2 – 2 Arsenal

Arsenal showed enough in the second half of its Champions League defeat to suggest it could get a result at Chelsea. Both teams have question marks over the health of key players, and given how close this game looks set to be, we'll play it safe and take both teams to score.

The Gunners have failed to keep a clean sheet in their last six league games. Both teams have scored in each of Chelsea's last five EPL games and their last four league matches at Stamford Bridge. Arsenal has not lost in its last five visits to Chelsea, with two of those games ending 2-2.

Betting Picks

The table below gives the odds for each game's three main plays (moneyline, total goals, and both teams to score). My favorite pick from each game is highlighted if you are looking to build a parlay (which I will be playing and tracking).

Good luck with those FPL teams and EPL bets. Remember to bet responsibly!

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