EPL Betting Picks and Game Previews for Matchday 10: English Premier League

The EPL season rolls on and we're bringing you our weekly article looking at betting picks and predictions for all games. Matchday 10 kicks off on Saturday, November 2, with Newcastle United hosting Arsenal. It culminates on Monday, November 4, when Brentford visits Fulham.

As we do every week, we'll offer a preview of all the games. We'll predict the outcome, give a score prediction, and pick our favorite play for all fixtures. Before you read on, remember these essential things: betting on sports should be fun. If you aren't having fun with it, stop. And never bet what you can't afford to lose.

We're bringing you more soccer content than ever before at RotoBaller. There are FPL, UCL, and DFS articles every week, along with our weekly betting picks and game previews article, all of which can be found here. Follow the team on X (@EuanFPL, @TheFPLManual, @df_solutions, @BellRoto, and yours truly @Baseball_Jimbo), and reach out to any of us if you ever have any soccer questions.

Matchday 9 Recap

We had another solid weekend last time out. We only hit 50% of moneyline picks and it was the same story for the over/under plays. However, we got eight correct "both teams to score" plays, which led to us bagging a nice profit on a five-game parlay.

Bournemouth's equalizer with the last kick of its game helped us to the win. That was despite it denying Aston Villa a victory, which we played in our moneyline parlay. Still, it was another profitable weekend, and after a slow start to the season, we're comfortably in the black.

Saturday, November 2, 2024

Newcastle United (+275) vs. Arsenal (-105) - 8:30 a.m. EDT

Newcastle slipped into the bottom half of the table following its fifth consecutive EPL game without a win. It progressed to the quarterfinals of the Carabao Cup in midweek. Arsenal also reached the last eight of the cup and will seek to win its first league game since Matchday 7.

Score prediction: Newcastle United 0 – 1 Arsenal

Newcastle's been struggling for goals, having scored just three in its five-game winless run. Arsenal still misses the creativity of Martin Ødegaard and this is set to be a tight game. With a few games looking like being low-scoring affairs, we're playing a parlay of "under 2.5 goals" with this game being included.

There is also a strong case for both teams to not score. February's meeting between these two ended with a 4-1 win for the Gunners. Their previous 10 league encounters saw just one team score. However, with Gabriel being a major doubt, Arsenal's defense is weakened and I'm not confident enough in a clean sheet.

A positive injury update from Mikel Arteta on Gabriel and Jurrien Timber @TheAthleticFC https://t.co/ME1C0d0JXq

— gunnerblog (@gunnerblog) October 29, 2024

Bournemouth (+425) vs. Manchester City (-180) - 11:00 a.m. EDT

Bournemouth's last-minute equalizer meant it has lost just once in its last four games. Goals have been tough to come by with just 11 in its nine games. City keeps grinding out results with its 1-0 victory over Southampton being its third consecutive win by one goal.

Score prediction: Bournemouth 1 – 2 Manchester City

Bournemouth has never beaten Manchester City and has lost its last 14 EPL games against it. City hasn't lost a league game in 2024 and any time it is priced to win at better than -200 against a non "big six" opponent, you take it. So that's what we're playing here.

Ipswich Town (+120) vs. Leicester City (+210) - 11:00 a.m. EDT

Ipswich's implosion at Brentford has left it still searching for its first league win of the season. It has now lost its last three games. After back-to-back league wins, Leicester was brought back down to Earth last Friday. An away win would move it eight points clear of Ipswich.

Harry Clarke for Ipswich vs. Brentford:

◉ 45+1' Scores an own goal
◉ 49' Gives away a penalty
◉ 69' Sent off

The worst full Premier League debut ever? 🤔#BREIPS pic.twitter.com/elSRe09nZX

— Squawka Live (@Squawka_Live) October 26, 2024

Score prediction: Ipswich Town 3 – 2 Leicester City

Ipswich has come close to winning on more than one occasion. There's very little to choose between the two sides. While I fancy a home win, I'm playing both teams to score, which occurred in their two encounters in the Championship last season. It's also happened in all four of Leicester's away games this season.

Liverpool (-265) vs. Brighton (+550) - 11:00 a.m. EDT

Liverpool slipped to second in the table following its draw at Arsenal. It did maintain its unbeaten away record with the point. Brighton's impressive start to the season continued with its draw against Wolves. However, it was two points dropped given it led 2-0 after 87 minutes.

Score prediction: Liverpool 2 – 1 Brighton

Liverpool's defense has only been breached five times and it leads the league with five clean sheets. However, it has only kept one in its last four EPL games. Brighton's scored in all but one of its nine EPL games and both teams finding the net here looks like the best value play.

Nottingham Forest (+110) vs. West Ham United (+245) - 11:00 a.m. EDT

Forest comes into this weekend in seventh place following its win at Leicester. It has now just lost once in its nine league games. West Ham needed a controversial penalty to see off Manchester United. It is still languishing in the bottom half of the table.

What a remarkable start to the season for Nottingham Forest. Got to be honest, I didn't see it going quite this well. Just one defeat from the opening 9 games, the second best defence in the league, sitting in the European places. Nuno Espirito Santo, what a job he's doing. pic.twitter.com/6miPO03hS8

— Alex Gonçalves (@Aljeeves) October 25, 2024

Score prediction: Nottingham Forest 1 – 0 West Ham United

As impressive as Forest's start to the season has been, its games haven't been the most exciting. Only twice have there been more than two goals in a Forest game. Three of West Ham's four away games have seen less than three goals scored, so we'll add "under 2.5 total goals" in this game to our parlay.

Southampton (+165) vs. Everton (+160) - 11:00 a.m. EDT

A fourth straight league defeat left Southampton rooted to the bottom of the table. It is still looking for a first league win although the Saints did progress to the Carabao Cup quarterfinal in midweek. Everton's late equalizer extended its unbeaten run to five games, three of which were drawn.

Score prediction: Southampton 1 – 1 Everton

This doesn't look like it will be an exciting encounter with goals likely hard to come by. Four of Everton's last five games have seen two or fewer goals. Southampton's blanked in four games and only scored two goals in a game once. We'll add this to our "under 2.5 total goals" parlay.

Wolves (+170) vs. Crystal Palace (+170) - 1:30 p.m. EDT

Wolves' late comeback against Brighton ended its five-game losing streak. It has yet to win a game this season, but its schedule does get considerably easier in the coming weeks. Palace got its first league win of the season last week and followed that up by reaching the Carabao Cup quarterfinal.

Score prediction: Wolves 2 – 0 Crystal Palace

I've long stated that I expect Wolves to start picking up points now that its fixtures get easier. It has played all of the current top-7 already. It can kick-start its season with a win this weekend and I fancy it to do just that.

I'll also be adding "under 2.5 goals" into the total goals parlay. Wolves' results are hard to factor given the difficulty of its fixtures. Only three of Palace's nine games have had three or more goals scored in them. It is tied with Southampton as the league's lowest scorer (six).

Sunday, November 3, 2024

Tottenham Hotspur (-120) vs. Aston Villa (+270) - 9:00 a.m. EST

Tottenham's loss at Crystal Palace was its second defeat in three games. It has only taken four points in five games on its travels but has three from four at home. Villa's unbeaten run extended to seven games following last week's draw. However, it has only won one of its last four EPL games.

Score prediction: Tottenham Hotspur 2 – 2 Aston Villa

Tottenham's four home games have produced 14 goals. Tottenham's scored at least three in three of those matches and only kept one clean sheet. Villa's four away games have also produced 14 goals. It has scored at least twice in all four of those matches and is yet to keep a clean sheet away from home.

I'm playing both teams to score in this one. I'd also be on board backing at least three goals being scored if it wasn't for us playing the "under 2.5 goals" parlay this week. Tottenham could be without its center-back pairing, which will be a massive loss and open the door to an away win as well.

Most times poss. won in the defensive third in the Premier League this season:

◎ 37 - Ola Aina
◎ 37 - Diogo Dalot
◎ 𝟑𝟐 - 𝐌𝐢𝐜𝐤𝐲 𝐯𝐚𝐧 𝐝𝐞 𝐕𝐞𝐧
◎ 𝟑𝟎 - 𝐂𝐫𝐢𝐬𝐭𝐢𝐚𝐧 𝐑𝐨𝐦𝐞𝐫𝐨

Spurs' first choice centre-backs both came off against Man City last night. 😓 pic.twitter.com/ffq0ca5cC9

— WhoScored.com (@WhoScored) October 31, 2024

Manchester United (+155) vs. Chelsea (+150) - 11:30 a.m. EST

The Erik ten Hag era eventually came to an end following last weekend's defeat. It seems like Ruben Amorim will be the new boss, but he won't have the job until the next international break. United beat Leicester City 5-2 in the Carabao Cup following ten Hag's ousting.

🚨🔴 Rúben Amorim can be considered new Man United manager, confirmed.

Portuguese coach will start new #MUFC chapter during the international break;
documents to be signed this week.

Contract until 2027. Sporting to receive €10m clause — plus €1m for staff/30 days notice. pic.twitter.com/wIVcZyIL56

— Fabrizio Romano (@FabrizioRomano) October 31, 2024

Chelsea bounced back from its Anfield defeat, narrowly beating Newcastle United 2-1. Four of its nine games have been against sides currently in the top half of the table. It has just four points from those games, although Manchester United is currently in 14th place.

Score prediction: Manchester United 2 – 3 Chelsea

Given the uncertainty surrounding United's new manager and how it dismantled Leicester City in midweek, this game is one I'd try to avoid. That being said, both teams have scored in the last meetings between these two sides and that does look like a likely outcome here.

Monday, November 4, 2024

Fulham (+100) vs. Brentford (+240) - 3:00 p.m. EST

The final game of Matchday 10 sees Fulham look to end its three-game winless run. Brentford won at home for a fourth time this season and leads the league in goals scored at home (15). Away from home, it has yet to take a point (four games) and only scored three goals.

Score prediction: Fulham 2 – 1 Brentford

Given its respective home and away records, I'm backing Fulham to win. I also like the chances of both teams scoring. Although Brentford has only scored three goals on its travels, it has blanked just once and that was at Liverpool. Liverpool has the league's best defensive record.

Both teams have scored in all four of Fulham's home games and they haven't been blanked since the opening game of the season. Given Brentford has conceded at least two goals in all four away games, I expect Fulham to find the net a couple of times at least.

Betting Picks

The table below gives the odds for each game's three main plays (moneyline, total goals, and both teams to score). My favorite pick from each game is highlighted if you are looking to build a parlay (which I will be playing and tracking).

Good luck with those FPL teams and EPL bets. Remember to bet responsibly!

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