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The Premier League is back and so is the RotoBaller soccer team. We're offering up our favorite betting pick for each game along with a score prediction and will include a player to look out for in fantasy from each fixture. Before you read on, remember these essential things: betting on sports should be fun. If you aren't having fun with it, stop. And never bet what you can't afford to lose.
The season is picking up steam. The league table is largely as expected in the preseason with Manchester City atop and the three newly promoted teams all in the relegation zone. We have two more matchdays until an international break and after bagging another parlay and three correct scores last week, we're heading into October strong.
We've been cranking up the soccer content at RotoBaller, too. We're still bringing you dedicated DFS and Fantasy Premier League content on top of the weekly preview and betting content, which can be found if you click here. Follow the team on X (@LucidMediaDFS, @EuanOrYouOut, @df_solutions, and yours truly @Baseball_Jimbo), and reach out to any of us if you ever have any soccer questions.
Saturday, September 30, 2023
Aston Villa (+150) vs. Brighton (+165) - 07:30 am ET
Score prediction: Aston Villa 2 - 2 Brighton
The two sides that were tipped to challenge for a top-4 place this season face off to get the weekend started. Both teams have had positive starts to the season. Villa won both their home games, scoring seven in the process. It's the same story for Brighton on their travels, winning both away games while scoring seven. I expect a high-scoring game and it's difficult to separate the two teams.
FPL Pick: Ollie Watkins
As we predicted last week, Watkins opened his account for the season at Chelsea. He scored in this fixture last season and is the joint-fourth highest-scoring striker in FPL so far (with one goal and four assists). He will be expecting to get his home account started this week.
Bournemouth (+475) vs. Arsenal (-200) - 10:00 am ET
Score prediction: Bournemouth 0 - 1 Arsenal
Bournemouth remain winless. They've lost just one of their three home games but have scored just once and conceded only three. Arsenal's two away games this season were won by a score of 1-0. Last year's runners-up haven't quite clicked into gear yet and are nursing some injuries. But they are still picking up results and I expect that trend to continue.
FPL Pick: Bukayo Saka
Saka picked up a knock in last week's game, leaving him a doubt for this week's fixture. Saka already has three goals and three assists in the first six games of the season. He'll be a huge loss if he doesn't play on Saturday but it's worth risking him in FPL. He'll most likely start or miss out entirely as I don't foresee a scenario whereby he is on the bench.
🚨🚨| Mikel Arteta has provided the latest update on Bukayo Saka’s injury. He said, as quoted via @SamJDean:
“He has not been able to participate [in training since the derby]. It’s a possibility [that he is unavailable for the Bournemouth game].” pic.twitter.com/qtAsB7sJCa
— afcsphere (@afcsphere) September 26, 2023
Everton (-165) vs. Luton Town (+475) - 10:00 am ET
Score prediction: Everton 2 - 1 Luton Town
Everton picked up their first win of the season last weekend, while this week's visitors remain winless. After picking up their first EPL point, I expect Luton to be confident of taking something from this game. Everton will be buoyed by their first win and with the home fans, it should be enough to get them over the line in what will likely be a close game.
FPL Pick: Dominic Calvert-Lewin & Carlton Morris
Calvert-Lewin can't seem to stay on the pitch for long enough to make an impact. As long as he is healthy, he will be Everton's best chance for goals. He came off the bench to score last weekend and then scored in their midweek EFL Cup tie so is coming into this game in good form.
Morris is included as Luton faces Burnley on Tuesday, their rescheduled matchday two fixture. Morris is the only Luton striker or midfielder with double-digit points (26) this season. Of his three goal involvements this season, only one has come on the road (three games) but he's a solid option to add to that tally in either game.
Manchester United (-175) vs. Crystal Palace (+475) - 10:00 am ET
Score prediction: Manchester United 2 - 0 Crystal Palace
United got a much-needed three points last weekend. They beat Palace in the EFL cup on Tuesday 3-0, with both teams making multiple changes to their starting XI from the weekend. Three of Palace's six goals this season came in the second half against Wolves. The hosts should have too much for their opponents this week and make it two wins in two.
FPL Pick: Marcus Rashford
Rashford only failed to score in seven of the 18 home games he played in last season. He's already blanked in all three of United's home games this season. Rashford scored in this fixture last season and it's difficult to believe his goal drought at home will continue. He could easily go on a fine run of form in the coming weeks too.
It hasn't been a scorching start for Man United assets, but I don't know how we can sell them in #FPL with this upcoming run. #GW7 pic.twitter.com/WUSn58imak
— Euan Leith (@EuanOrYouOut) September 25, 2023
Newcastle United (-340) vs. Burnley (+850) - 10:00 am ET
Score prediction: Newcastle United 3 - 0 Burnley
Newcastle's 8-0 win at Sheffield United was their biggest away win in the EPL and was a needed return to form. It backed up their second win of the season in the week prior. Burnley remains winless and after shipping in eight last weekend, Sheffield United (17) is the only side to have conceded more than Burnley (13). They also have the league's lowest expected goals total (4.0 xG).
FPL Pick: Kieran Trippier
After I backed Trippier to open his goal involvement account last week, he bagged three assists in their 8-0 win. I'm going back to the well this week as Burnley has conceded three set-piece goals (second-most) and it would've been four if not for a VAR decision last week. My only concern is if the FPL curse of the most transferred-in player continues. That is currently Sven Botman meaning no clean sheet this weekend for Newcastle.
The curse of the most transferred in #FPL player continues 👻
GW6: Alvarez - 1,375,407 (1 point)
GW5: Son - 921,945 (2 points)
GW4: Sterling - 1,294,608 (2 points)
GW3: Mbeumo - 1,186,530 (2 points)
GW2: Chilwell - 690,937 (1 point)Who will be next? 🔮 pic.twitter.com/neN4bJsHTE
— Fantasy Premier League (@OfficialFPL) September 23, 2023
West Ham United (-220) vs. Sheffield United (+550) - 10:00 am ET
Score prediction: West Ham United 2 - 0 Sheffield United
West Ham come into the game following back-to-back 3-1 losses. Both came against the current top-2 in the league table and the level of opposition this week couldn't be much more different. Sheffield United will want to put on a significantly better display than last week's 8-0 shellacking. While it won't be a similar scoreline, it will be a similar result.
FPL Pick: James Ward-Prowse
The only team to have conceded more set-piece goals than Burnley is Sheffield United (four). Ward-Prowse is regarded as the best set-piece taker in the league. With two goals and three assists in five games since joining West Ham, Ward-Prowse is already proving to be one of the signings of the season.
Wolves (+700) vs. Manchester City (-290) - 10:00 am ET
Score prediction: Wolves 0 - 2 Manchester City
Wolves 1-1 draw at Luton marked the fifth consecutive game in which they've scored. It wasn't until matchweek 30 that they achieved that feat last season. They now come up against a City side with a 100% record, the most expected goals (13.5 xG) and the fewest expected goals against (4.6 xGA). A comfortable away win looks on the cards here.
FPL Pick: Jeremy Doku
It may come as a surprise not to see Erling Haaland's name here. This feels like a week where not captaining the Norwegian striker could pay off. Doku already has a goal to his name this season and led the team in shot-creating actions (three) last weekend despite only playing 50 minutes. It's no guarantee Doku starts the game but after coming off the bench in their midweek EFL game, I suspect he's in line to make the starting XI.
Tottenham (+190) vs. Liverpool (+115) - 12:30 pm ET
Score prediction: Tottenham 2 - 3 Liverpool
Two unbeaten teams collide in what could be the game of the weekend. Tottenham has scored two or more in all six games so far but also conceded five goals in their last three games. Their 10.9 xG is only ninth best while their 8.7 xGA is 11th best. Liverpool has scored two or more in their last five games, scoring three in each of their last three games. They only have one clean sheet so also haven't been too efficient defensively.
FPL Pick: Mo Salah
Mo Salah has a goal or assist in every game this season and playing in the same position as Salah, Saka picked up a goal and assist against Tottenham last weekend. One was a penalty and one a heavily deflected shot but the omens are good for the Egyptian to continue his record-setting streak this week.
The first player in @PremierLeague history to do it TWICE 🇪🇬👑 pic.twitter.com/vxnVIzZI6L
— Liverpool FC (@LFC) September 24, 2023
Sunday, October 01, 2023
Nottingham Forest (+180) vs. Brentford (+160) - 09:00 am ET
Score prediction: Nottingham Forest 2 - 1 Brentford
Forest has only played two home games but their 1.0 xGA at home leads the league. Given they've played the bottom two sides in the league table at home, that might come as no surprise. This will be their toughest home game so far. But Brentford comes into the game in poor form. Four league games without a win including back-to-back defeats. That was followed by a midweek EFL Cup exit and the loss of Ivan Toney is starting to be felt.
FPL Pick: Taiwo Awoniyi
Last weekend's 2-0 defeat at Manchester City marked the first game of the season in which Awoniyi failed to tally a goal involvement. Dating back to last season, the Nigerian international has nine goals and two assists in his last ten EPL games. Brentford has only kept one clean sheet in their six games. I fully expect Awoniyi to get back on the scoresheet this week.
Monday, October 02, 2023
Fulham (+260) vs. Chelsea (+105) - 03:00 pm ET
Score prediction: Fulham 1 - 1 Chelsea
After having the highest expected goals against after four games, Fulham have kept back-to-back clean sheets. Their 5.4 xG is third worst in the league so they will need to remedy that end of the pitch if they are to steer clear of relegation. Chelsea's miserable run continued last weekend with their 1-0 home defeat against Aston Villa. Their record this calendar year has been atrocious and while they will likely improve, it's hard to back them.
Premier League table for 2023 🔝📈
Any surprises? 👀 pic.twitter.com/EkdWfJrkH9
— Football Daily (@footballdaily) September 26, 2023
FPL Pick: Cole Palmer
With Nicolas Jackson suspended, Chelsea might have to revert Raheem Sterling to a central role. That would leave Palmer as a likely replacement on the wing. He's yet to start an EPL game since joining Chelsea but with the Blues in desperate need of kick-starting their season, they may well turn to their Summer recruit to ignite their campaign.
Tuesday, October 03, 2023
Luton Town (+175) vs. Burnley (+160) - 02:30 pm ET
Score prediction: Luton Town 1 - 1 Burnley
Luton secured a first EPL win at Everton. They had to show both facets of their game, going 2-0 up early before a solid defensive display in the second half secured their win. Burnley weren't expected to get anything from their weekend game at Newcastle, but the manner of their defeat will be concerning.
In the Championship last season, this fixture ended 1-0 to Burnley. The reverse fixture was drawn 1-1 and I highly doubt there will be more than one goal between the two sides on Tuesday. Burnley should bounce back from Saturday's loss and will be better. This game will likely be a tense and close affair.
Betting Picks
The below table gives the odds for each of the three main plays for each game (moneyline, total goals, and both teams to score). My favorite pick from each game is highlighted if you are looking to build a parlay.
| Game | Moneyline | Over/Under 2.5 | BTTS |
| Aston Villa 2 – 2 Brighton | Draw +280 | O2.5 -230 | Yes -260 |
| Bournemouth 0 – 1 Arsenal | Arsenal -200 | U2.5 +145 | No +125 |
| Everton 2 – 1 Luton Town | Everton -165 | O2.5 +100 | Yes +100 |
| Man United 2 – 0 Palace | Man United -175 | U2.5 +105 | No +105 |
| Newcastle 3 – 0 Burnley | Newcastle -340 | O2.5 -190 | No -115 |
| West Ham 2 – 0 Sheff United | West Ham -220 | U2.5 +125 | No +105 |
| Wolves 0 – 2 Man City | Man City -290 | U2.5 +145 | No -105 |
| Tottenham 2 – 3 Liverpool | Liverpool +115 | O2.5 -260 | Yes -270 |
| Notts Forest 2 – 1 Brentford | Notts Forest +180 | O2.5 +105 | Yes -140 |
| Fulham 1 – 1 Chelsea | Draw +245 | U2.5 -110 | Yes -150 |
| Luton Town 1 – 1 Burnley | Draw +225 | U2.5 -145 | Yes -125 |
| Season totals | 36/59 | 36/59 | 32/59 |
| Season parlays | 1/6 (-2.24u) | 1/6 (+0.30u) | 2/6 (+4.69u) |
Good luck with those FPL teams and EPL bets. Remember to bet responsibly!
