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The EPL season rolls on, and so does the coverage from the RotoBaller soccer team. We're offering up our favorite betting pick for each game, along with a score prediction, and will include a player to look out for in fantasy from each fixture. Before you read on, remember these essential things: betting on sports should be fun. If you aren't having fun with it, stop. And never bet what you can't afford to lose.
We enter the final month of the season with things still finely poised at both ends of the table. This weekend sees a full slate of ten games stretched out over four days. We bagged another parlay last week to extend our winning streak to five weeks. I'll be away next week so this is the penultimate preview of the season. But I'll be back to cover the final games of the season on May 19.
We've been cranking up the soccer content at RotoBaller, too. We're still bringing you dedicated DFS and Fantasy Premier League content on top of the weekly preview and betting content, which can be found here. Follow the team on X (@EuanFPL, @TheFPLManual, @df_solutions, @BellRoto, and yours truly @Baseball_Jimbo), and reach out to any of us if you ever have any soccer questions.
Friday, May 3, 2024
Luton Town (+160) vs. Everton (+165) - 3:00 p.m. EDT
Score prediction: Luton Town 2 – 1 Everton
Three consecutive wins have secured Everton's Premier League status. All three wins came at home but Everton haven't won any of their last nine away games. Luton will need at least two wins from their remaining three games to stay up. Their need is great enough that they will push for a winner in the second half. That should see Luton over the line so the odds of a home win are too enticing to turn down.
Fantasy Player Pick: Carlton Morris
There aren't many appealing fantasy players in this game. But Morris has scored two goals in his last four games and found the net in the reverse fixture. With 10 goals, he's Luton's top scorer this season and is their likeliest route to a goal here.
Saturday, May 4, 2024
Arsenal (-525) vs. Bournemouth (+1100) - 7:30 a.m. EDT
Score prediction: Arsenal 2 – 0 Bournemouth
Arsenal have taken 40 points from a possible 45 in 2024. They could win their remaining three games and still not win the league, as is Manchester City's dominance. Bournemouth won't be pushovers, given only the current top four have won more points since November 1. Four of Arsenal's last seven EPL games have hit under 2.5 goals so that's what we'll be playing here.
36 - Bournemouth have more points than Tottenham (34) or Man Utd (35) in the Premier League since the start of November. Form. pic.twitter.com/3aQG2BC9YC
— OptaJoe (@OptaJoe) April 14, 2024
Fantasy Player Pick: Kai Havertz
Havertz's first Arsenal goal came against Bournemouth back on matchday 7. He's gone on to score 11 more league goals and tallied eight assists. Of his 20 goals involvements, 15 have come in the last 13 games so the German international makes a great play over the final three weeks of the season.
Brentford (+110) vs. Fulham (+225) - 10:00 a.m. EDT
Score prediction: Brentford 1 – 1 Fulham
Neither team has anything meaningful to play for following Brentford securing their Premier League survival. Three of Fulham's last four games saw fewer than three goals scored, while four of Brentford's last six games have equally had two or fewer goals scored in them. We'll take under 2.5 goals at plus odds given this looks like being a dull affair.
Fantasy Player Pick: Bryan Mbeumo
Brentford's five-game unbeaten run that ultimately saw them avoid relegation coincided with the return of Mbeumo from injury. He has one goal and two assists in the four games he's started since returning to fitness. In a game that has a dearth of viable options, Mbeumo makes a nice differential play.
Burnley (+240) vs. Newcastle United (-105) - 10:00 a.m. EDT
Score prediction: Burnley 2 – 2 Newcastle United
Burnley have lost just one of their last eight games, giving them hope of an unlikely survival bid. Both teams have scored in seven of those eight games, with the sole defeat the only instance when Burnley failed to score. There have been 60 goals scored in Newcastle's 16 away EPL games. Backing both teams to score in this game looks like the best play.
Fantasy Player Pick: Alexander Isak
Newcastle has a double gameweek next week and a fantasy-friendly schedule to close out the season. Isak and Anthony Gordon will be popular plays for the final three weeks. I certainly wouldn't go against that idea given their fixtures, but it is worth noting that three of their four games are away from home. The duo have been considerably better at St. James' Park so playing them is fine, but beware of captaining either of them.
⭐️ Premier League Player of the Week - Alexander Isak#NUFC | @NUFC pic.twitter.com/V7x65mA1J3
— WhoScored.com (@WhoScored) April 29, 2024
Sheffield United (+390) vs. Nottingham Forest (-155) - 10:00 a.m. EDT
Score prediction: Sheffield United 1 – 1 Nottingham Forest
Sheffield United's relegation has been confirmed. We see it so often that when a team can no longer stay up, they play with more freedom and their results pick up. Given Forest has taken just six points from the last 30 available, the Blades could make things tricky for Forest. Despite losing four straight games, Sheffield United has scored in their last three. The odds of an away win do not appeal so we'll play both teams to score in this one.
Fantasy Player Pick: Morgan Gibbs-White
Gibbs-White had five goal involvements in five games before back-to-back blanks over the last fortnight. He leads the team in shots (63) and shot-creating actions (130) while also acting as Forest's primary set-piece taker. He's not someone I'd consider in FPL but has many routes to a big points haul in DFS.
Manchester City (-1100) vs. Wolves (+190) - 12:30 p.m. EDT
Score prediction: Manchester City 3 – 0 Wolves
City's relentless march to a fourth-straight league title isn't slowing down. They've now gone 29 games without losing in all competitions and taken 49 of the 57 points available since their last defeat. Wolves have failed to score in two of their last three games (all at home). It's been a similar story on their travels so taking both teams not to score in this game feels like the best value play.
Fantasy Player Pick: Kevin De Bruyne
De Bruyne has started City's last four league games, having seemingly put his injury issues behind him. He's scored three and assisted three goals in those four games and continues to be City's creative force. For those looking to drop Mo Salah from their teams, De Bruyne should be the number one option to replace him.
Kevin De Bruyne has found his groove 🕺
With a Double Gameweek to come, is the @ManCity midfielder flying under the radar? 📡 pic.twitter.com/3pTrkBZTux
— Fantasy Premier League (@OfficialFPL) May 1, 2024
Sunday, May 5, 2024
Brighton (+180) vs. Aston Villa (+135) - 9:00 a.m. EDT
Score prediction: Brighton 1 – 2 Aston Villa
Brighton played five games in April and scored just one goal. That came courtesy of an Arijanet Muric own goal which wasn't even via a shot. Villa does have their Europa Conference League semi-final tie on Thursday. However, they've played 12 European fixtures so far this season and won seven of the league games immediately after. They can take a huge step towards securing fourth place with a win and the plus odds for it are too tempting to not take.
Fantasy Player Pick: Ollie Watkins
Watkins trails Erling Haaland by two goals for the Golden Boot. His 219 FPL points are more than anyone else and there's no reason to believe he will finish the season without adding to his 36 goal involvements. Brighton's kept just two clean sheets at home this season so Watkins will fancy his chances of adding to his tally this Sunday.
Chelsea (-160) vs. West Ham United (+360) - 9:00 a.m. EDT
Score prediction: Chelsea 3 – 1 West Ham United
While West Ham ended Liverpool's slim title chances last week, their three-game winless run has ended any hopes of qualifying for the Europa League next season. Chelsea are far too unpredictable to back for a win, but one thing we should be guaranteed is goals. Chelsea's last eight league games have seen a total of 39 goals and that is what we're playing. Over 2.5 goals appear to be a lock.
Fantasy Player Pick: Cole Palmer
Palmer's blank against Aston Villa last weekend was his first game without a goal involvement since matchday 25. Only Watkins and Bukayo Saka have more FPL points than Palmer (210) and his ability to boom in any week has been evidenced more than most others this season. Palmer makes an ideal captain option this weekend.
Most matches with 1+ goal 𝗮𝗻𝗱 1+ assist in the Premier League this season:
◎ 5 - Cole Palmer
◎ 4 - Kai Havertz
◎ 4 - Ollie Watkins
◎ 4 - Son Heung-min
◎ 3 - Anthony Gordon
◎ 3 - Erling Haaland
◎ 3 - Jarrod Bowen
◎ 3 - Leon Bailey
◎ 3 - Mohamed Salah pic.twitter.com/GC3wm6yKXk— WhoScored.com (@WhoScored) May 1, 2024
Liverpool (-220) vs. Tottenham Hotspur (+475) - 11:30 a.m. EDT
Score prediction: Liverpool 2 – 2 Tottenham Hotspur
Liverpool's run of one win in their last five games has left them almost locked into third place. Tottenham's chances of fourth place and a return to the Champions League look unlikely following back-to-back defeats. Neither team is in good form but I do expect them both to score. Their last seven league meetings saw both teams finding the net and in a game that could go either way, that looks like being the safest play.
Fantasy Player Pick: Luis Diaz
With Mo Salah out of favor, Darwin Nunez out of form and Diogo Jota out injured, someone needs to score goals. Collectively, Liverpool has been very profligate lately but Diaz has at least been looking like the most obvious candidate to score. He got an assist last weekend and has now taken 39 shots in his last ten EPL games. Tottenham's leaky defense could prove to be the catalyst for Diaz to get back on the scoresheet.
Monday, May 6, 2024
Crystal Palace (+140) vs. Manchester United (+175) - 3:00 p.m. EDT
Score prediction: Crystal Palace 2 – 1 Manchester United
The fact Palace is the bookies' favorite in this game highlights both teams' recent form. Although Manchester United haven't lost in their last four league games, they've only won once and that came against now relegated Sheffield United. Palace have a four-game unbeaten run themselves, but theirs consists of three wins. Palace have the chance to do the double over United for the first time in club history. I'm backing the Eagles to soar in this one.
Oliver Glasner has Crystal Palace playing some brilliant stuff 👏pic.twitter.com/xecCA2mE5w
— Project Football EPL (@ProjectEPL) April 25, 2024
Fantasy Player Pick: Michael Olise
I could put Jean-Philippe Mateta or Eberechi Eze here. The attacking trio have been excellent when they have played this season, which hasn't been frequent enough. Only Sheffield United allows more shots per game than Manchester United (17.6) and Olise's 3.73 shots/90 minutes leads Palace. I'd want two of this trio in my FPL team this week and wouldn't be shocked if they all tallied a goal or assist.
Betting Picks
The table below gives the odds for each of the three main plays for each game (moneyline, total goals, and both teams to score). My favorite pick from each game is highlighted if you are looking to build a parlay (which I will be playing and tracking).
| Game | Moneyline | Over/Under 2.5 | BTTS |
| Luton 2 – 1 Everton | Luton +160 | O2.5 -145 | Yes -185 |
| Arsenal 2 – 0 Bournemouth | Arsenal -525 | U2.5 +225 | No -105 |
| Brentford 1 – 1 Fulham | Draw +270 | U2.5 +130 | Yes -195 |
| Burnley 2 – 2 Newcastle | Draw +295 | O2.5 -215 | Yes -230 |
| Sheff Utd 1 – 1 Notts Forest | Draw +320 | U2.5 +135 | Yes -165 |
| Man City 3 – 0 Wolves | Man City -1100 | O2.5 -340 | No -165 |
| Brighton 1 – 2 Aston Villa | A. Villa +135 | O2.5 -220 | Yes -245 |
| Chelsea 3 – 1 West Ham | Chelsea -160 | O2.5 -260 | Yes -230 |
| Liverpool 2 – 2 Tottenham | Draw +425 | O2.5 -425 | Yes -290 |
| C. Palace 2 – 1 Man United | C. Palace +140 | O2.5 -195 | Yes -215 |
| Season totals | 172/339 | 195/339 | 195/339 |
| Season parlays | 3/33 (-16.90) | 9/33 (+16.93u) | 11/33 (+24.38u) |
Good luck with those FPL teams and EPL bets. Remember to bet responsibly!
