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The EPL season rolls on, and so does the coverage from the RotoBaller soccer team. We're offering up our favorite betting pick for each game, along with a score prediction, and will include a player to look out for in fantasy from each fixture. Before you read on, remember these essential things: betting on sports should be fun. If you aren't having fun with it, stop. And never bet what you can't afford to lose.
The finishing line is in sight, and there's still all to play for at both ends of the table. With only Aston Villa left in European competition, we have a clear schedule for the final weeks of the season. We hit two parlays last weekend for another profitable week so fingers crossed we can keep up our winning run until the end of the season.
We've been cranking up the soccer content at RotoBaller, too. We're still bringing you dedicated DFS and Fantasy Premier League content on top of the weekly preview and betting content, which can be found here. Follow the team on X (@EuanFPL, @TheFPLManual, @df_solutions, @BellRoto, and yours truly @Baseball_Jimbo), and reach out to any of us if you ever have any soccer questions.
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Saturday, April 27, 2024
West Ham United (+425) vs. Liverpool (-18o) - 7:30 a.m. EDT
Score prediction: West Ham United 1 – 3 Liverpool
Both teams are in danger of having their season drift away in the final weeks. While West Ham's form hasn't been great, they've still scored in eight of their last nine EPL games. They've not kept a clean sheet in the last 14, conceding a total of 33 goals in that time. Both teams will likely find the net in this game.
Fantasy Player Pick: Luis Diaz
With Diogo Jota set to be out again with an injury, Liverpool desperately needs some to start finding the net. Diaz has been the most likely, coming close numerous times in recent weeks, including hitting the post on Wednesday. It's a bit of a dart throw, given Liverpool's profligacy, but it could pay dividends.
Fulham (+105) vs. Crystal Palace (+260) - 10:00 a.m. EDT
Score prediction: Fulham 1 – 2 Crystal Palace
Palace have won back-to-back games for the first time this season and scored eight goals in their last three games. All three matches were against teams currently in the top six. They look like a new side under Oliver Glasner, and I expect them to continue their recent form and pick up a win at very generous odds.
Fantasy Player Pick: Jean-Philippe Mateta
Glasner has seemingly got the best out of Mateta since taking over. The forward had a huge week in FPL, scoring 29 points across his two fixtures. Mateta has ten goal involvements in the ten games since Glasner's appointment and with Palace's most creative players getting back into form following injuries, Mateta should continue to thrive.
Most Premier League goals scored since Oliver Glasner took charge of Crystal Palace:
◎ 10 - Cole Palmer
◎ 8 - Jean-Philippe Mateta
◎ 7 - Bruno Ferandes
◎ 7 - Alexander Isak pic.twitter.com/6CULRSZsRY— WhoScored.com (@WhoScored) April 25, 2024
Manchester United (-205) vs. Burnley (+500) - 10:00 a.m. EDT
Score prediction: Manchester United 3 – 2 Burnley
Manchester United's games continue to be the place to see goals. That's largely down to their inability to stop their opponents having a ridiculous amount of shots on their goal. Their last seven games in all competitions have totaled 36 goals and both teams have scored in 12 of their last 14 EPL games. Another game with a goal at both ends is the play here.
Fantasy Player Pick: Bruno Fernandes
The United captain has now scored six goals in his last four league games. He's tallied ten goal involvements in his last eight EPL matches and has averaged nine FPL points a game in that run. He makes for an ideal play again this week.
Newcastle United (-425) vs. Sheffield United (+950) - 10:00 a.m. EDT
Score prediction: Newcastle United 3 – 0 Sheffield United
There have been 63 goals in Newcastle's 17 home league games this season. Eight of their last nine games at St. James' Park saw three or more goals scored with Newcastle scoring 24 goals in that run. Sheffield United's 92 goals conceded is a Premier League record (in a 38-game season). A comprehensive home win seems obvious so we'll take over 2.5 goals at better odds.
With 92 goals conceded, Sheffield United have broken the record for the most goals conceded by a Premier League team in a 38 game season (previously 89 by Derby County in 07/08).#twitterblades #sufc pic.twitter.com/LRj19iAyE8
— The Bladesman (@The_Bladesman) April 24, 2024
Fantasy Player Pick: Alexander Isak
Newcastle's top scorer has found the net 17 times in the league this season, 12 of which have come at home. He's scored six goals in his last four home games. Facing the worst defense in Premier League history should help him challenge for the Golden Boot award this season.
Wolves (-105) vs. Luton Town (+260) - 10:00 a.m. EDT
Score prediction: Wolves 2 – 0 Luton Town
Wolves have now gone six games without a win as their injury issues continue to hurt their chances of a top-half finish. They have remained competitive and this week's visitors have won just twice on their travels all season. Those wins came against teams currently in the bottom five. Luton has played 11 away games against sides currently placed 13th or better, picking up just one point in those games. A home win is too well-priced to turn down.
Fantasy Player Pick: Rayan Aït-Nouri
Aït-Nouri returned to the starting lineup in midweek following a minor injury. Before his short absence, Aït-Nouri had four goal involvements in his previous six games. With Wolves missing key attacking players in recent weeks, Aït-Nouri has been playing more advanced and has thrived in that role. He continues to be one of the best-attacking defenders to roster in FPL.
Everton (+145) vs. Brentford (+185) - 12:30 p.m. EDT
Score prediction: Everton 1 – 1 Brentford
Both teams all but secured their Premier League survival in the last week. Everton's midweek win against neighbors Liverpool was the tenth time a game at Goodison Park saw two or fewer goals. With little left to play for and the pressure of relegation no longer weighing on the teams, a low-scoring affair seems likely here.
Fantasy Player Pick: Bryan Mbeumo
Mbeumo's two assists last weekend made it three goal involvements in three games since his return from a lengthy injury. The winger has some tantalizing fixtures left to end the season and is still only on 6.8% of FPL rosters. He can make a nice differential this weekend and during the final three gameweeks of the season.
Bryan Mbeumo's influence on this @BrentfordFC side is clear to see 🐝 pic.twitter.com/vchLGOSCGH
— Premier League (@premierleague) April 20, 2024
Aston Villa (+130) vs. Chelsea (+180) - 3:00 p.m. EDT
Score prediction: Aston Villa 2 – 2 Chelsea
Chelsea's six-game run of scoring two goals a game was ended by Arsenal in midweek. It was the sixth time in their last seven games in which they conceded at least two goals. Villa have scored at least twice in four of their last five home games. Of Villa's 17 home EPL matches, 13 have seen at least three goals scored and that looks the best play this weekend.
Fantasy Player Pick: Cole Palmer
Palmer is the pick as Chelsea also have a midweek fixture against Tottenham. The league's joint-leading top scorer should be back for the game after missing their midweek defeat with an illness. Palmer is the ideal captaincy choice in FPL this weekend.
Sunday, April 28, 2024
Bournemouth (+125) vs. Brighton (+195) - 9:00 a.m. EDT
Score prediction: Bournemouth 2 – 1 Brighton
Bournemouth's only two defeats in their last 12 home games have come against top three sides. They have taken 22 points from those 12 games. Brighton's only won four of their last 19 EPL games. They've won only two of their last 15 away league games, both coming against sides currently in the bottom four. A home win at plus odds looks like a great price.
Fantasy Player Pick: Dominic Solanke
Solanke still has a chance to win the Golden Boot and strengthen his claim for a spot in the England squad for this year's European Championship. He scored in the reverse fixture and has found the net in three of his last four home matches.
Tottenham Hotspur (+290) vs. Arsenal (-120) - 9:00 a.m. EDT
Score prediction: Tottenham Hotspur 2 – 2 Arsenal
Few EPL fixtures have produced as many goals as the North London Derby. In the last five seasons (nine games), there have been seven games between these two, with at least three goals. The other two matches both saw two goals scored. Tottenham have had two weeks off to prepare for this game, while Arsenal have played four games since Tottenham's last fixture. Playing over 2.5 goals seems the safest play here.
Fantasy Player Pick: Kai Havertz
After back-to-back blanks, Havertz scored a brace against his former club in midweek. That made it seven goals and six assists in his last 12 EPL games. Havertz will likely lead the line on Sunday, and his movement could exploit Tottenham's high defensive line. The German has every chance of adding to his 17-goal involvements, which is already a career-high in the EPL.
🔴⚪️ 12 goals this season, brace vs Chelsea and the perfect night for Kai Havertz.
17 G/A for the German player this season at #AFC. 🇩🇪 pic.twitter.com/ezmMxchKwx
— Fabrizio Romano (@FabrizioRomano) April 23, 2024
Nottingham Forest (+650) vs. Manchester City (-275) - 11:30 a.m. EDT
Score prediction: Nottingham Forest 1 – 3 Manchester City
Manchester City are unbeaten in their last 28 games in all competitions. They have only kept four away clean sheets in the league all season and only two in their last ten. Forest have scored in eight of their last nine home league games. An away win looks inevitable, but Forest will fancy their chances of scoring and posing a threat, so taking both teams to score provides the best value.
Fantasy Player Pick: Kevin De Bruyne
No side has conceded more set-piece goals in the EPL than Forest (21). De Bruyne's delivery is one of the best in football, so that alone provides a great route to an attacking return. He has ten goal involvements in the ten games he's started this season, so he has been at his best when fit. The only question is whether or not he starts the game after starting Thursday. But with no other distractions, De Bruyne should start on Sunday.
Betting Picks
The table below gives the odds for each of the three main plays for each game (moneyline, total goals, and both teams to score). My favorite pick from each game is highlighted if you are looking to build a parlay (which I will be playing and tracking).
| Game | Moneyline | Over/Under 2.5 | BTTS |
| West Ham 1 – 3 Liverpool | Liverpool -180 | O2.5 -245 | Yes -200 |
| Fulham 1 – 2 C. Palace | C. Palace +260 | O2.5 -145 | Yes -170 |
| Man United 3 – 2 Burnley | Man United -205 | O2.5 -245 | Yes -185 |
| Newcastle 3 – 0 Sheff United | Newcastle -425 | O2.5 -310 | No +110 |
| Wolves 2 – 0 Luton | Wolves -105 | U2.5 +135 | No +145 |
| Everton 1 – 1 Brentford | Draw +255 | U2.5 +105 | Yes -170 |
| A. Villa 2 – 2 Chelsea | Draw +295 | O2.5 -225 | Yes -235 |
| Bournemouth 2 – 1 Brighton | Bournemouth +125 | O2.5 -220 | Yes -245 |
| Tottenham 2 – 2 Arsenal | Draw +300 | O2.5 -220 | Yes -235 |
| Notts Forest 1 – 3 Man City | Man City -275 | O2.5 -185 | Yes -130 |
| Season totals | 167/329 | 189/329 | 190/329 |
| Season parlays | 3/32 (-15.90) | 8/32 (+12.23u) | 11/32 (+25.38u) |
Good luck with those FPL teams and EPL bets. Remember to bet responsibly!
