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The EPL season rolls on and so does the coverage from the RotoBaller soccer team. We're offering up our favorite betting pick for each game, along with a score prediction, and will include a player to look out for in fantasy from each fixture. Before you read on, remember these essential things: betting on sports should be fun. If you aren't having fun with it, stop. And never bet what you can't afford to lose.
The FA Cup semi-finals leave us with just seven EPL games this weekend. There are a further six Premier League fixtures in midweek as teams make up for their games in hand. That means it's a huge week for FPL and managers will need to focus on their team selections to maximize the double gameweeks. We bagged a parlay last weekend to continue our winning streak and have a pick for the FA Cup ties this weekend too.
We've been cranking up the soccer content at RotoBaller, too. We're still bringing you dedicated DFS and Fantasy Premier League content on top of the weekly preview and betting content, which can be found here. Follow the team on X (@EuanFPL, @LucidMediaDFS, @df_solutions, @BellRoto, and yours truly @Baseball_Jimbo), and reach out to any of us if you ever have any soccer questions.
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Saturday, April 20, 2024
Luton Town (+215) vs. Brentford (+115) - 10:00 a.m. EDT
Score prediction: Luton Town 1 – 2 Brentford
Brentford ended their nine-game winless run. Another win will likely see them safe this season. Brentford won the reverse fixture 3-1 and is the only team in the bottom half with a better xGD (expected goal difference) than their actual goal difference. An away win at plus odds looks juicy.
Fantasy Player Pick: Bryan Mbeumo
Despite missing 13 games with an injury, Mbeumo still leads Brentford midfielders in FPL points (100). He scored in his first start back a fortnight ago and got an assist against Luton earlier this season. His pace on the break will be key for Brentford over the remainder of the season.
It feels a 𝙑𝙀𝙍𝙔 big next few weeks for the future of Brentford Football Club 😅
📆 They face Luton, Everton and today - bottom club Sheffield United
Cameroonian Bryan Mbeumo's much-needed return last week could be pivotal in Thomas Frank's side avoiding the drop#BRESHU pic.twitter.com/bAo4sR1H3b
— BetMGM UK (@BetMGMUK) April 13, 2024
Sheffield United (+175) vs. Burnley (+140) - 10:00 a.m. EDT
Score prediction: Sheffield United 2 – 2 Burnley
Both teams simply have to win this game to have a chance of avoiding relegation. That should mean both teams going for it and any early goal should lead to the game being open. Over 2.5 goals looks most appealing.
Fantasy Player Pick: Oliver McBurnie
McBurnie has scored in each of Sheffield United's last two home games. He also has an assist and his aerial threat could be their best route to goal. Sheffield United have two games this week but McBurnie would still only be an option if you're desperate for a differential.
Wolves (+700) vs. Arsenal (-280) - 2:30 p.m. EDT
Score prediction: Wolves 0 – 2 Arsenal
Arsenal will be looking to bounce back after their shock defeat against Aston Villa and Champions League exit. They've looked a bit leggy lately but expect them to tighten up at the back and grind out a road win. If they lose, it'll likely come from not scoring so both teams not to score looks best priced.
Fantasy Player Pick: Martin Odegaard
Arsenal need a spark from somewhere and expect the captain to provide it. He's been the creative driving force for the Gunners all season. They will need to lean on him even more to avoid their season drifting away.
Sunday, April 21, 2024
Everton (+105) vs. Nottingham Forest (+260) - 8:30 a.m. EDT
Score prediction: Everton 1 – 1 Nottingham Forest
The 34 goals in Everton's home games this season are the fewest in the league. Only seven of Everton's 15 home games have had three goals scored in them. A cagey and low-scoring match seems likely so under 2.5 goals is our play.
Fantasy Player Pick: Morgan Gibbs-White
Gibbs-White has been Forest's most in-form player lately. He's tallied five goal involvements in his last five games. Forest's run-in isn't too bad outside of a game against Manchester City, so rolling with him over the final month of the season is a viable play. He is a candidate to depart in the summer but could help secure Forest's Premier League status before leaving.
🆕 on @MirrorFootball on why Morgan Gibbs-White will be a man in demand this summer https://t.co/v1VaQ31o1k
— Ben McAleer (@BenMcAleer1) April 17, 2024
Aston Villa (-130) vs. Bournemouth (+310) - 10:00 a.m. EDT
Score prediction: Aston Villa 3 – 0 Bournemouth
Villa's three home defeats have all been against sides currently in the top-7. Bournemouth's faced seven of the current top-10 away from home, with only one win to show for it. Villa looks too well-priced to not play a home win.
Fantasy Player Pick: Ollie Watkins
Watkins is tied with Cole Palmer as FPL's highest point scorer (208). Villa doesn't have a double gameweek so pivoting off of him makes sense this week. However, I wouldn't take a minus to replace him as he is a potential double-digit points scorer here.
Crystal Palace (+120) vs. West Ham United (+215) - 10:00 a.m. EDT
Score prediction: Crystal Palace 2 – 0 West Ham United
Palace have impressed under Oliver Glasner. They've faced three of the current top-5 but still taken eight points from the seven games since he took charge. West Ham looked flat last week and facing Palace on the back of a second-leg against newly crowned Bundesliga champions Leverkusen on Thursday is not ideal. Plus odds for a home win are too appealing to turn down.
Fantasy Player Pick: Eberechi Eze
Eze shined again last week and continues to be Palace's best player. He's had a stop-start year due to injuries but as long as he's healthy, will continue to be a solid points provider in FPL. With a double gameweek and two home fixtures, Eze makes a very interesting captain option this week.
Fulham (+450) vs. Liverpool (-195) - 11:30 a.m. EDT
Score prediction: Fulham 1 – 2 Liverpool
Liverpool needs to start taking their chances after being punished for profligacy in recent games. Fulham's scored in 10 of their 16 home games this season while Liverpool only has four clean sheets on their travels. Both teams will likely find the net in this one.
Fantasy Player Pick: Diogo Jota
Jota's return from injury couldn't have come at a better time. Liverpool's title chances depend on whether they can find the net and their best finisher will need to hit the ground running. Liverpool can't afford to not start Jota as long as he's fit so expect the forward to have a big week with two matches on the slate.
From an xG of 9.7 in their past three games, Liverpool have only scored one goal from open play. 🥅⚽️
Simply not good enough 🤷♂️ pic.twitter.com/7TT6H0ry3k
— LFC Transfer Room (@LFCTransferRoom) April 15, 2024
FA Cup Semi-Finals
Manchester City (-225) vs. Chelsea (+475) - Saturday, April 20 - 12:15 p.m. EDT
Score prediction: Manchester City 2 – 1 Chelsea
City haven't lost a game in any competition since early December. After going out of the Champions League on penalties in midweek, they will want to bounce back. Chelsea are unbeaten in their last eight games in all competitions. They've scored 26 goals in that run but before Monday's clean sheet, had conceded two goals in each of their previous seven games. Expect goals here, even in a semi-final, which is usually a tight game.
Coventry City (+475) vs. Manchester United (-240) - Sunday, April 21 - 10:30 a.m. EDT
Score prediction: Coventry City 1 – 3 Manchester United
Manchester United continues to let opponents have a ridiculous amount of shots on their goal. Only five teams have scored more goals (66) than Coventry in the Championship. Coventry have played five FA Cup ties this season and scored 19 goals, including three at Premier League side Wolves. They will give a good account of themselves and I expect them to score, but Manchester United should run out winners. Both teams scoring is my play.
Most shots faced in the Premier League 2023/24:
◎ Luton (576)
◉ Man Utd (574)
◎ Sheff Utd (569)Most xG conceded in the Premier League 2023/24:
◎ Luton (69.48)
◎ Sheff Utd (62.44)
◉ Man Utd (59.97)Look away, Erik ten Hag. 🫣#BOUMUN | @bet365 | #Ad pic.twitter.com/9exq86sq69
— Squawka (@Squawka) April 13, 2024
Betting Picks
The below table gives the odds for each of the three main plays for each game (moneyline, total goals, and both teams to score). My favorite pick from each game is highlighted if you are looking to build a parlay (which I will be playing and tracking).
| Game | Moneyline | Over/Under 2.5 | BTTS |
| Luton 1 – 2 Brentford | Brentford +115 | O2.5 -180 | Yes -210 |
| Sheff United 2 – 2 Burnley | Draw +260 | O2.5 -160 | Yes -200 |
| Wolves 0 – 2 Arsenal | Arsenal -280 | U2.5 +130 | No -115 |
| Everton 1 – 1 Notts Forest | Draw +245 | U2.5 -110 | Yes -150 |
| A. Villa 3 – 0 Bournemouth | A. Villa -130 | O2.5 -225 | No +165 |
| C. Palace 2 – 0 West Ham | C. Palace +120 | U2.5 +105 | No +130 |
| Fulham 1 – 2 Liverpool | Liverpool -195 | O2.5 -255 | Yes -205 |
| Man City 2 – 1 Chelsea | Man City -225 | O2.5 -205 | Yes -160 |
| Coventry 1 – 3 Man United | Man United -240 | O2.5 -225 | Yes -165 |
| Season totals | 161/320 | 182/320 | 185/320 |
| Season parlays | 2/31 (-23.27u) | 8/31 (+13.23u) | 10/31 (+21.91u) |
Good luck with those FPL teams and EPL bets. Remember to bet responsibly!
