RADIO
The weekend slate treated us well. Four correct picks from six on Saturday (including a +300 winner) and only denied a clean swipe by the woodwork and a sitter missed. Sunday saw us bag two from three (with a void bet and a +525 correct score pick) and miss out on the sweep with Manchester inexplicably unable to score despite 26 shots and 74% possession. The midweek slate sees all twenty teams play across three days again so there's plenty more action to get our teeth into. Each game I'll be giving you the intel to find value bets, offering my pick to bet on and predicting the correct score. Here's how we have started off:
- Picks total - 20 out of 40
- Picks last slate - 6 out of 10
- Parlays - 4 out of 13
Before you read on, remember these important things: Betting on sports should be fun. If you aren't having fun with it, stop. Never bet what you can't afford to lose. And if you don't agree with my picks, don't bet on it. I'm far from being a professional gambler and just enjoy a flutter on the soccer. All I'm doing is looking at stats to try and find potential value in the likelier outcomes. I'll predict the score of each game and will just be picking the bet I think offers the best value so it'll be down to you what you bet on and how. Feel free to parlay any picks too.
Teams have now played three or four games each so we have a better understanding of what the 3-month hiatus has had on the teams. Playing games without any fans in the stadium is still something of an anomaly that impacts teams differently so it's a wise move to take things slower and more sensible until the end of the season. Feel free to reach me on Twitter @Baseball_Jimbo for any info, have a pop for any duds and (hopefully) pats on the back for winners. All odds are taken from Pinnacle or Draftkings Sportsbooks and were correct at the time of writing.
Newcastle United @ Manchester City - 1:00 pm ET
Newcastle United 12th - 43 pts
Manchester City 2nd - 66 pts
Manchester City's away troubles reared themselves again last weekend with a 1-0 loss at Southampton, despite having 74% possession and 26 shots. Star player Kevin de Bruyne didn't start, Gabriel Jesus' goal drought continued and it resulted in a third straight away league defeat. At home, they're a different animal. They've won all three home games since the restart, scoring 12 goals and conceding none. They've scored at least two goals in all but to two home games in the league this season and dominated the FA Cup game at Newcastle less than two weeks ago, winning 2-0 which flattered Newcastle.
Newcastle is unbeaten in the league since it's resumption, winning two and drawing two. They did beat 10-man Sheffield United 3-0 but since then have only faced bottom-5 teams so two draws and a win from those three games weren't exactly unexpected. Despite five away league wins this season, their record at the top sides is not good. They've faced six of the current top-7 sides away this season and have one point to show for it (1-1 draw at Wolves) with three goals scored and 18 conceded. This could be the game which well and truly bursts their bubble.
You need to go back to September 30th, 2000 for Newcastle's last away league win at Manchester City. I don't see that streak ending here.
Score prediction: Manchester City 4 - 0 Newcastle (Pinnacle odds +650)
Betting Pick:
- Team Props - Manchester City to win both halves @ -125 (Draftkings)
Wolves @ Sheffield United - 1:00 pm ET
Wolves 6th - 52 pts
Sheffield United 9th - 48 pts
Wolves tasted defeat for the first time since the restart with a 2-0 home loss against Arsenal on Saturday. They'd won the previous three games without conceding but they were all against bottom-5 sides. They were unbeaten in eight league games before their weekend loss and continue to fight for a top-5 finish and possible Champions League place. With the form of Manchester United and Chelsea, they will likely need to win this game to keep those hopes alive.
Sheffield United has turned their restart form around with four points in their last two games after picking up just one point in their first three and getting eliminated from the FA Cup. A win here would put them back into the hunt for qualification to European Competitions themselves. They have a difficult run of games however with matches against Chelsea (3rd) and Leicester City (4th) afterwards and will probably need to get a positive result from all three of these games to keep those hopes alive.
This could be a cagey affair between two well-organized sides and if there is a winner, it will likely be by a solitary goal.
Score prediction: Sheffield United 1 - 1 Wolves (Pinnacle odds +525)
Betting Pick:
- Match Result - Draw @ +207 (Pinnacle)
Burnley @ West Ham United - 1:00 pm ET
Burnley 10th - 46 pts
West Ham United 16th - 31 pts
After being thumped by Manchester City in their first game after the restart, Burnley has now picked up seven points from their last three games. That loss to Manchester City is their only defeat in their last eleven league games. They're also unbeaten in the league in away games versus teams currently 12th or below, with four wins and three draws. Like so many teams, they're a good run of results away from qualifying for European competition next season and will see this as a good chance to put themselves into a good spot for that.
West Ham was dreadful in their first two games after the league resumption but followed their win against Chelsea with a draw at Newcastle after leading twice. The big issue has been their defence as they've now conceded two goals in all four games from the restart. They have had success from set-pieces in their last two games but Burnley is more adept at defending them than most other sides in the league. It's also been 13 league games without a clean sheet for West Ham so it'll be a big ask for them to find a way to win this game with their newfound tactic for set-pieces leading to goals.
Score prediction: West Ham 1 - 1 Burnley (Pinnacle odds +600)
Betting Pick:
- Team Props - Both teams to score Yes @ -112 (Pinnacle)
Liverpool @ Brighton - 3:15 pm ET
Liverpool 1st - 89 pts
Brighton 15th - 36 pts
It's been well documented that Liverpool has now failed to score in their last five away games in all competitions. They've failed to win back-to-back games in their last ten matches too but this game represents their best chance to end both those runs. Liverpool has been playing a strong side since winning the league and will have eyes on the new season starting soon after this one ends so will want to ensure they remain sharp and likely won't make wholesale changes to their starting lineup each game.
Brighton isn't quite safe from relegation yet but should be fine given the problems teams below them are having. Outside of the 3-0 loss to a rampant Manchester United side, Brighton has been solid defensively since the league resumption and that was the only time this season they have conceded three at home.
Ordinarily, I'd back Liverpool without thinking twice. But this isn't the Liverpool team that romped away with the league title and I'm going to look at yellow cards for the pick. Liverpool has been the least cautioned team this season with just 31 yellow cards while Brighton is fourth with 51. Combined, that's 82 yellow cards in 66 games and when they met earlier in the season, the only card shown was a straight red to Liverpool goalkeeper Alisson for a deliberate handball as opposed to a foul.
Score prediction: Brighton 1 - 1 Liverpool (Pinnacle odds +700)
Betting Pick:
- Cards - Total cards under 2.5 @ -125 (Draftkings)
Parlay
You can parlay all four picks or play it a bit safer with just the three shortest odds picks. Also, consider Manchester City -1.5, Liverpool to win, and both teams to score in the other two games at +783.
Good luck with those EPL bets and remember to bet responsibly! Check back for more EPL betting picks this week!
