RADIO
We've reached the season finale with all twenty teams playing on the same day and at the same time. Despite the Premier League title being won weeks ago, there is still lots up for grabs. Three teams battling for safety, with two of them to be relegated. Three teams battling for third and fourth place and qualification to next season's Champions League. And two teams fighting it out for the last guaranteed Europa League qualification spot. Each game I'll be giving you the intel to find value bets, offering my pick to bet on and predicting the correct score. Here's how we have done so far:
- Picks total - 38 out of 76
- Picks last slate - 4 out of 10
- Parlays - 4 out of 20
Before you read on, remember these important things: Betting on sports should be fun. If you aren't having fun with it, stop. Never bet what you can't afford to lose. And if you don't agree with my picks, don't bet on it. I'm far from being a professional gambler and just enjoy a flutter on the soccer. All I'm doing is looking at stats to try and find potential value in the likelier outcomes. I'll predict the score of each game and will just be picking the bet I think offers the best value so it'll be down to you what you bet on and how. Feel free to parlay any picks too.
As there are ten games to get through, I'll just be running through the permutations for each game and offering a pick and correct score prediction. There is a link to the Premier League Table at the bottom so you can check out who is playing for what as well. Feel free to reach me on Twitter @Baseball_Jimbo for any info, have a pop for any duds and (hopefully) pats on the back for winners. All odds are taken from Pinnacle or Draftkings Sportsbooks and were correct at the time of writing.
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Sunday, July 26th, 2020 - 11:00 am ET
Watford @ Arsenal
Watford 18th - 34 pts
Arsenal 10th - 53 pts
For Watford, they have to better Aston Villa's result to stay up. They could match Aston Villa's result and stay up providing they have a +2 goal swing in their favor (for example, a 3-0 win for Watford would see them go above Aston Ville if they only managed a 1-0 win). Watford's decision to sack their manager before their last game looks even stranger now.
Arsenal has an FA Cup final to prepare for next week and nothing in the league to play for (other than potentially jumping up to 8th) so I expect a few fringe players to get a start, albeit they should still have a strong side out. If Watford continues their recent trend of slow starts, this could be done and dusted early.
Score prediction: Arsenal 3 - 1 Watford (Pinnacle odds +1300)
Betting Pick:
- Team Props - Arsenal to score in both halves @ +163 (Draftkings)
Brighton @ Burnley
Brighton 16th - 38 pts
Burnley 9th - 54 pts
Nothing on the line for either team except the chance of moving up or down a place in the standings.
Score prediction: Burnley 1 - 0 Brighton (Pinnacle odds +750)
Betting Pick:
- Total Match - Under 2.5 goals @ -104 (Pinnacle)
Wolves @ Chelsea
Wolves 6th - 59 pts
Chelsea 4th - 63 pts
Wolves need a win to guarantee 6th place and a spot in next season's Europa League. Any other result and they would slip to 7th and out of Europa League qualification if Tottenham betters their result.
For Chelsea, a draw sees them finish 4th place no matter what the other results are. A win will see them finish 3rd if Manchester United fails to beat Leicester City but still only seals 4th if Manchester United wins. A defeat sees Chelsea drop to 5th and miss Champions League qualification if Leicester City avoids defeat against Manchester United. However, if Chelsea lost and Leicester City lose, they remain 4th.
Score prediction: Chelsea 1 - 2 Wolves (Pinnacle odds +1250)
Betting Pick:
- Team Props - Both Teams to Score Yes @ -128 (Pinnacle)
Tottenham @ Crystal Palace
Tottenham 7th - 58 pts
Crystal Palace 14 - 42 pts
Crystal Palace has nothing to play for other than jumping up to 13th place and have lost their last seven games.
Tottenham needs to better Wolves' result to leapfrog them into 6th and secure Europa League football next season. Otherwise, they are secured in 7th place.
Score prediction: Crystal Palace 0 - 2 Tottenham (Pinnacle odds +700)
Betting Pick:
- Handicap Match - Tottenham -1.5 @ +160 (Pinnacle)
Bournemouth @ Everton
Bournemouth 19th - 31 pts
Everton 11th - 49 pts
Bournemouth can only avoid relegation if they win and both Aston Villa and Watford lose. No matter the scorelines, that will see them stay up, but any other combination of results will see them relegated.
Everton can only finish 11th or 12th so have nothing meaningful to play for.
Score prediction: Everton 1 - 2 Bournemouth (Pinnacle odds +1050)
Betting Pick:
- Team Total Match - Bournemouth over 1.5 goals @ +134 (Pinnacle)
Manchester United @ Leicester City
Manchester United 3rd - 63 pts
Leicester City 5th - 62 pts
The game with both teams battling for the same thing and the most complicated set of outcomes. The permutations are this;
- Manchester United wins - they guarantee 3rd place and Leicester 5th place
- Leicester City wins - they leapfrog Manchester United and will finish 3rd if Chelsea fails to win or 4th if Chelsea wins. Manchester United would slip to 5th if Chelsea avoids defeat.
- A draw - both teams stay where they are if Chelsea draws. A Chelsea win means Manchester United finish 4th and Leicester 5th. A Chelsea defeat means Manchester United finish 3rd and Leicester jump to 4th.
Most scenarios require Leicester to push for a win so they could be the team on the front foot more to start the game.
Score prediction: Leicester City 1 - 1 Manchester United (Pinnacle odds +575)
Betting Pick:
- Game Props - First Goal Leicester City @ +108 (Draftkings)
Norwich @ Manchester City
Norwich 20th - 21 pts
Manchester City 2nd - 78 pts
Norwich has long been relegated and lost all eight league games since the restart.
Manchester City has the Champions League resumption on August 07th to focus on and will look to get meaningful game time to most of their stars before their showdown with Real Madrid.
Score prediction: Manchester City 5 - 0 Norwich City (Pinnacle odds +800)
Betting Pick:
- Handicap Match - Manchester City -3 @ -125 (Pinnacle)
Liverpool @ Newcastle United
Liverpool 1st - 96 pts
Newcastle United 13th - 44 pts
Liverpool will look to go out with a bang on their title-winning season but has only one win in seven away games in all competitions, so it's not a foregone conclusion they win here.
Newcastle hasn't won in five games and has nothing to play for.
Score prediction: Newcastle United 0 - 3 Liverpool (Pinnacle odds +)
Betting Pick:
- Single Game Parlay - Liverpool to win and Liverpool over 0.5 cards @ +105 (Draftkings)
Sheffield United @ Southampton
Sheffield United 8th - 54 pts
Southampton 12th - 49 pts
Sheffield United will secure 8th with a win but could slip to 10th if they don't pick up all three points.
Southampton can only climb to 11th but cannot drop a place.
Score prediction: Southampton 1 - 1 Sheffield United (Pinnacle odds +600)
Betting Pick:
- Money Line Match - Draw @ +263 (Pinnacle)
Aston Villa @ West Ham United
Aston Villa 17th - 34 pts
West Ham United 15th - 38 pts
Aston Villa needs to match Watford's result to stay up, providing there isn't a two-goal swing (in Watford's favor) between the sides' respective goal difference. A defeat will see Aston Villa relegated if Bournemouth wins. A win or draw and anything other than a Watford victory will guarantee Aston Villa Premier League survival.
West Ham is safe and nothing to play for other than 15th or 16th place.
Score prediction: West Ham United 1 - 1 Aston Villa (Pinnacle odds +625)
Betting Pick:
- Player Props - Tomas Soucek to score anytime @ +320 (Draftkings)
Parlay
- To win - Burnley, Tottenham, Bournemouth @ +976
- Both Teams to Score - Chelsea/Wolves, West Ham/Aston Villa, Leicester City/Manchester United @ +347
With ten games kicking off at the same time, you can just mix'n'match the games you like and go all out with the full ten games (@ +6,542) or just choose a couple of picks.
All in all, I think Chelsea will struggle against Wolves and if they are losing, both Manchester United and Leicester City will know a point secures them both a top-4 finish. Neither team will want to risk going for the win, end up losing and potentially finishing 5th. That adds an interesting wrinkle into the two games.
At the bottom of the table, survival in Aston Villa's hands (to some extent). If they get news of Watford losing but Bournemouth winning, they will know a point keeps them up so the later stages of the game could just see them playing out for a point. Bournemouth needs to win no matter what so should look to play on the front foot and get in front to put pressure on the teams above them. Watford is the wildcard and similarly to Aston Willa, they could win and still get relegated or lose and stay up. I think they'll be so unsure how to play and what result to play for, they could get caught out.
Good luck with those EPL bets and remember to bet responsibly!
