RADIO
We had a good weekend slate with eight picks banking out of eleven plus a +750 correct score pick. We were denied a +1956 parlay from a dreadful VAR call for Crystal Palace and on Saturday, Liverpool and Chelsea combined for 38 shots but just one goal otherwise we could have been looking at a clean sweep and a monstrous slate. Just three more Matchweeks remain now with European qualification and relegation spots still to play for. Each game I'll be giving you the intel to find value bets, offering my pick to bet on and predicting the correct score. Here's how we have started off:
- Picks total - 31 out of 58
- Picks last slate - 8 out of 11
- Parlays - 4 out of 16
Before you read on, remember these important things: Betting on sports should be fun. If you aren't having fun with it, stop. Never bet what you can't afford to lose. And if you don't agree with my picks, don't bet on it. I'm far from being a professional gambler and just enjoy a flutter on the soccer. All I'm doing is looking at stats to try and find potential value in the likelier outcomes. I'll predict the score of each game and will just be picking the bet I think offers the best value so it'll be down to you what you bet on and how. Feel free to parlay any picks too.
Teams have now played at least six games each so we have a better understanding of what the 3-month hiatus has had on the teams. Playing games without any fans in the stadium is still something of an anomaly that impacts teams differently so it's a wise move to take things slower and more sensible until the end of the season. Feel free to reach me on Twitter @Baseball_Jimbo for any info, have a pop for any duds and (hopefully) pats on the back for winners. All odds are taken from Pinnacle or Draftkings Sportsbooks and were correct at the time of writing.
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Thursday, July 16th, 2020
Aston Villa @ Everton - 1:00 pm ET
Aston Villa 19th - 30 pts
Everton 11th - 45 pts
Aston Villa finally picked up a win and kept their survival hopes alive with a 2-0 victory against Crystal Palace on Sunday. But that win was reliant on Crystal Palace having a goal disallowed on VAR (wrongly) before Aston Villa took the lead in the fourth minute of additional time of the first half. There was only that much added time because of the VAr decision to rule out the Crystal Palace goal. They're going to need to ride their luck the rest of the way if they are to avoid relegation.
Everton has only picked up one point from their last three games however, the two losses both came away from home. Everton is yet to lose at home in the league since Carlo Ancelotti took over and has four clean sheets in their last ten home league games (scoring 14). Most teams in Everton's position will already be on the beach but with an expected quick turnaround before the new season starts and such an experienced manager at the helm, they will still play every game like it's midseason and should make it very difficult for Aston Villa to keep their survival hopes alive.
Score prediction: Everton 2 - 0 Aston Villa (Pinnacle odds +975)
Betting Pick:
- Match Money Line - Everton to win @ +111 (Pinnacle)
Sheffield United @ Leicester City - 1:00 pm ET
Sheffield United 7th - 54 pts
Leicester City 4th - 59 pts
After a stumbling restart to the league season, Sheffield United have regained their form and have picked up ten points from their last four games, leaving them in a strong position to qualify for next season's Europa League. The problem for Sheffield United is their away form since the restart. While they have won all three home games, they have drawn two and lost two away. The two defeats came against an in-form Manchester United and Newcastle United after they had been reduced to ten men for half the game. Their opponents here are in no form whatsoever.
Leicester managed to get their top-4 (and Champions League qualification) back on track with a win against Crystal Palace and a draw at Arsenal. But they came crashing back to Earth on Sunday with a humbling 4-1 defeat against Bournemouth. If we quickly analyze these three games, it' hard to make a case for Leicester winning here. Against Crystal Palace, their first two goals came from dreadful mistakes from their opponents. Against Arsenal, they rode their luck and only equalized after Arsenal had a player very harshly sent off. Then against Bournemouth, they had a complete meltdown conceding four goals in the final 30 minutes. They have just six points from seven games since the restart and if the league season started on January 1st, they would be in 14th position currently. They were also knocked out of the FA Cup after the league restart and are clinging on to a top-4 spot by their fingertips.
Score prediction: Leicester City 1 - 2 Sheffield United (Pinnacle odds +1250)
Betting Pick:
- Game Props - Sheffield United Draw No Bet @ +190 (Pinnacle & Draftkings)
Manchester United @ Crystal Palace - 3:15 pm ET
Manchester United 5th - 59 pts
Crystal Palace 14th - 42 pts
Manchester United's four-game winning streak was ended by a Southampton injury-time equalizer on Monday, but they did extend their unbeaten league run to 11 games. With Leicester falling apart, Manchester United will fancy overtaking them for the final Champions League spot before they meet on the final day of the season. A win here and again next week against West Ham could be enough to guarantee fourth place if Leicester doesn't turn things around. They do have an FA Cup semi-final to consider this weekend, but it's unlikely they make changes for this game as they're desperate to get back into Europe's elite competition.
For Crystal Palace, I keep expecting them to continue fighting for points and they keep letting me down. They were unlucky at the weekend as I alluded to earlier but that defeat made it five straight losses and a fourth time in five games they've failed to score. Their win against Manchester United back in Matchweek 3 is the only time they've beaten a side currently higher than tenth in the league and while they have been competitive in their last two games (and somewhat unfortunate not to get at least a point from both games), I think they just fall short again here.
Score prediction: Crystal Palace 0 - 1 Manchester United (Pinnacle odds +650)
Betting Pick:
- Single Game Parlay - Manchester United to Win & Under 3.5 goals @ +102 (Draftkings)
Brighton @ Southampton - 3:15 pm ET
Brighton 15th - 36 pts
Southampton 12th - 45 pts
Brighton has just one win and three losses in their last four games, but if you see who they've played, that won't come as a surprise. The win was against bottom of the table Norwich while the three losses were against Liverpool (1st), Manchester City (2nd) and Manchester United (5th). In the unlikely event that Bournemouth gets anything out of their game with Manchester City game on Wednesday, Brighton will be right back into the relegation mix again. They'll have an eye on the Aston Villa game earlier in the day too and will consider a point here another big step towards survival.
Southampton gave Manchester United a real game on Monday and deservedly got their 96th-minute equalizer (even if it did cost us money). That's now four games unbeaten for the Saints made even more impressive by the fact two of those games were against the Manchester clubs. Their home record (17 points) is considerably worse than their away record (28 points) however. They have scored ten goals in their six games since the restart while conceding six and have scored more goals than any side in the bottom half of the league. If it wasn't for their 9-0 drubbing earlier in the season, they'd have the second-best defensive record in the bottom half too. They won the reverse fixture 2-0 earlier in the season and I think we see a repeat result to keep their strong finish to the season going.
Score prediction: Southampton 3 - 0 Brighton (Pinnacle odds +2100)
Betting Pick:
- Match Money Line - Southampton to Win @ +125 (Pinnacle & Draftkings)
Friday, July 17th, 2020
Watford @ West Ham United - 3:00 pm ET
Watford 17th - 34 pts
West Ham United 16th - 34 pts
Watford kept some daylight between themselves and the relegation zone with their second straight come-from-behind win on Saturday. They needed two second-half penalties to win their last game and with games against Manchester City and Arsenal to finish the season, this game represents their best chance for points to keep their survival bid going. They've yet to keep a clean sheet since the league restarted and only managed six goals in those six games so will need their fortunes at both ends of the pitch to turn around if they're to win here.
West Ham's 4-0 win against bottom side Norwich at the weekend leaves them in a similar position to Watford, except their final game of the season is against Aston Villa in what could be a winner stays up encounter. Having struggled for goals all season (the win against Norwich was the first time this season they scored four in a league game), they've now scored nine in their last four games. We need to take the weekend's result for what it was; a good performance but against the league's worst side. They started the resumption with two abject performances and lost 1-0 against Burnley prior to the weekend so it's still too early to determine if they have found some form.
A win for either team here will all but guarantee their survival and there's a real chance we could see the nerves show as both teams bid to not lose rather than go for the win. It might come down to which side plays with the most freedom in getting a result but both teams could easily cancel each other out. The remaining fixtures leave Watford in a greater need for a win but if the scores are level heading into the final 20 minutes, I'm not sure either side will want to risk it for the win and may settle for a draw.
Score prediction: West Ham United 1 - 1 Watford (Pinnacle odds +525)
Betting Pick:
- Game Props - Both Teams to Score Yes @ -148 (Draftkings)
Pinnacle is yet to open a full book for this game at the time of writing but will likely offer better odds on this pick.
Parlay
- All four of Thursday games' picks @ +2789
- All five games @ +4660
With one game on Friday, you can play around a bit with the Thursday games and then target the Friday game on it's own.
Good luck with those EPL bets and remember to bet responsibly! Check back for more EPL betting picks this week!
