RADIO
The midweek slate was a mixed bag. Denied by the woodwork and controversial officiating on Tuesday. On Thursday, two of our picks drew. And Wednesday, I'm still salty about. With 90 minutes on the clock in the first three games, we need a West Ham goal to bag all three picks and two correct scores. Instead, the home teams in the other two games scored leaving us with one pick and no correct scores. We did get a parlay bank on Tuesday which cushioned the blow somewhat. Now, we must continue with the weekend slate where once more, all 20 teams play over three days. Each game I'll be giving you the intel to find value bets, offering my pick to bet on and predicting the correct score. Here's how we have started off:
- Picks total - 23 out of 47
- Picks last slate - 4 out of 10
- Parlays - 4 out of 14
Before you read on, remember these important things: Betting on sports should be fun. If you aren't having fun with it, stop. Never bet what you can't afford to lose. And if you don't agree with my picks, don't bet on it. I'm far from being a professional gambler and just enjoy a flutter on the soccer. All I'm doing is looking at stats to try and find potential value in the likelier outcomes. I'll predict the score of each game and will just be picking the bet I think offers the best value so it'll be down to you what you bet on and how. Feel free to parlay any picks too.
Teams have now played at least five games each so we have a better understanding of what the 3-month hiatus has had on the teams. Playing games without any fans in the stadium is still something of an anomaly that impacts teams differently so it's a wise move to take things slower and more sensible until the end of the season. Feel free to reach me on Twitter @Baseball_Jimbo for any info, have a pop for any duds and (hopefully) pats on the back for winners. All odds are taken from Pinnacle or Draftkings Sportsbooks and were correct at the time of writing.
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Sunday July 12th, 2020
Everton @ Wolves - 7:00 am ET
Everton 11th - 45 pts
Wolves 6th - 52 pts
After a positive start to the league resumption, Everton has only picked up a point in their last two games. Although they've only lost one of the five games, they've only scored five goals but have conceded just three. That's largely due to Carlo Ancelotti getting them more organized but they are lacking some creativity upfront. Top scorer Dominic Calvert-Lewin has yet to score after the resumption and he won't find much tougher opponents to break that run than Wolves. Everton has lost only four of the seventeen league games since Ancelotti took over but all of them have been away to sides in the top-8 positions.
Wolves won their first three games without conceding a goal from the restart but have lost their last two games without scoring. Those two losses now make finishing in the top-5 almost impossible and anything but a win here will likely render their dreams of Champions League qualification over. A loss could see them having to fight their way just to get into the Europa League qualification spots.
Despite their last three head-to-heads seeing at least four goals scored in each game, this one looks like being a lower scoring affair. Both teams have played five games since the restart and have both combined for a total of just seven goals in their games.
Score prediction: Wolves 1 - 0 Everton (Pinnacle odds +500)
Betting Pick:
- Match Money Line - Wolves to win @ +108 (Pinnacle)
Crystal Palace @ Aston Villa - 9:15 am ET
Crystal Palace 14th - 42 pts
Aston Villa 19th - 27 pts
After starting the league resumption with an impressive away win at Bournemouth, Crystal Palace has now lost its last four games and has been sucked back into bottom half obscurity. They did show fight as you'd expect from a Roy Hodgson team, in their 3-2 defeat against Chelsea and was denied a last-minute equalizer by the post. And three of those four defeats came against sides in the top-4 so it's not like they've just capitulated towards the end of the season.
Aston Villa did capitulate in midweek. After going one-nil down against Manchester United from a very contentious (and since confirmed as incorrect) penalty, they almost gave up and the third goal they conceded had the look of a team waving the white flag. Results Saturday haven't gone their way and they need a win here to stand any chance of staying up. The problem for Aston Villa is they've only scored twice in their last eight league games and now face one of the league's tighter defenses. I think they find a route to goal but they've managed just one clean sheet in their last 15 league games and that was only thanks to the goal-line technology not working.
Score prediction: Aston Villa 1 - 1 Crystal Palace (Pinnacle odds +550)
Betting Pick:
- Team Props - Crystal Palace draw no bet 1st half @ +118 (Pinnacle)
Arsenal @ Tottenham - 11:30 am ET
Arsenal 8th - 50 pts
Tottenham 9th - 49 pts
Arsenal was denied a fourth straight league win in midweek after a questionable red card, and they didn't help themselves by missing some good chances in the first half of their game against Leicester. They have looked much improved after two abject defeats to start the resumption and they also have an FA Cup semi-final to look forward to next weekend. But this is a local derby, steeped in history and even without fans in attendance, this will still be a combative affair and there won't be any thoughts of next weekend in their minds.
Tottenham looked dreadful in their goalless draw against Bournemouth last time out, their second straight away game since the restart in which they've looked poor. At home, they've picked up seven points from their three games and will be better on Sunday than they were in midweek. Both sides are battling for a spot in next season's Europa League but bragging rights over their neighbors will be the focus at kick-off.
Arsenal has failed to win in their last four trips to Tottenham and despite being in better form, are still slight underdogs. I think the tightness in odds is a fair reflection of how this one pans out. It's worth noting that these two teams are the most cautioned in the league with 174 yellow cards between them.
Score prediction: Tottenham 1 - 1 Arsenal (Pinnacle odds +575)
Betting Pick:
- Single Game Parlay - Both Teams to Score Yes and over 3.5 total cards @ +125 (Draftkings)
Leicester City @ Bournemouth - 2:00 pm ET
Leicester City 4th - 59 pts
Bournemouth 18th - 28 pts
The final game on Sunday will impact both ends of the table. Leicester City finally got their restart going with a win last weekend before picking up a point at Arsenal in midweek and despite slipping down to fourth place, are still in prime position to qualify for the Champions League. That's assuming Manchester City's appeal against their European suspension is upheld otherwise, Leicester will need to hold off Manchester United's advancements. This game will be a must-win in that scenario and they're not going to rely on an appeal process so will be all out for the three points. Their win against Crystal Palace was in part due to individual errors from their opponents and as mentioned, were lucky to get a point at Arsenal. So I'm not convinced they've regained their early-season form and against better opposition, I'd be reluctant to back them to win.
Bournemouth finally got a point in midweek with their draw against Tottenham. Despite that, they didn't exactly inspire confidence that they can stay up this season and even after having a last-minute winner ruled out for handball, the result was largely due to Tottenham's inadequacies. They are showing some fight, unlike similar teams in their position and they won't go down without a whimper, but much like in Aston Villa's case, Saturday's scores make this a must-win for Bournemouth and that added pressure generally doesn't bode well for underdogs.
Score prediction: Bournemouth 1 - 3 Leicester City (Pinnacle odds +1300)
Betting Pick:
- Match Totals - Over 2.5 goals @ -109 (Pinnacle)
Monday July 13th, 2020
Southampton @ Manchester United - 3:00 pm ET
Southampton 12th - 44pts
Manchester United 5th - 58 pts
The weekend slate ends Monday with two in-form sides meeting. Southampton has 10 points from their five games post restart and has only failed to score once. Their shock win last weekend against Manchester City was a real backs-to-the-wall effort and they will likely need to produce a similar performance to get anything from this game. In Danny Ings, they have the league's third-highest scorer this season (19 goals) and will need him to be on his best form to get something from this game.
Manchester United needed a dubious penalty to get going against Aston Villa in midweek but they cruised to their fourth consecutive league victory by three goals from that point onwards. This could be arguably their toughest test during that run as Southampton has conceded just four goals in their last five games despite facing three sides above them in the table during that run. Manchester United are in such good form, it's difficult to back them not winning, especially at home. Their front-4 of Rashford, Greenwood, Martial and Fernandes have combined for 14 of their 15 goals during that run and I'd be surprised if one of them doesn't score again here.
Southampton hasn't beat Manchester United in any of their last eight encounters, but they have drawn four of the last six and you need to go back eight games for the last time it was decided by more than one goal. With the line so heavily in Manchester United's favor, we'll look at prop bets for this game.
Anthony Martial and Marcus Rashford are joint top-scorers in the league for Manchester United this season. Of Martial's 15 league goals, 10 have come at home and he's scored in each of his last four home games. Eleven of Rashford's 15 league goals have come at home and he's scored in three of the last four home games. He's also splitting penalty duties with Fernandes so is very much a candidate to score here.
Score prediction: Manchester United 2 - 1 Southampton (Pinnacle odds +750)
Betting Pick:
- Player Props - Anthony Martial to score @ +115 (Draftkings)
OR - Player Props - Marcus Rashford to score @ +115 (Draftkings)
You can do a Single Game Parlay with either player to score and Manchester United to win @ +143. Or both players to score and Manchester United to win @ +410.
Parlay
- All four of Sunday games' picks @ +1956
- Wolves & Leicester to win @ +247
- Crystal Palace vs Aston Villa & Tottenham vs Arsenal Both Teams to Score and Bournemouth vs Leicester over 2.5 goals @ +446
Good luck with those EPL bets and remember to bet responsibly! Check back for more EPL betting picks this week!
