Engel's Insider Angles: Early Season Analysis From A High Stakes Standout

Usually in my Fantasy Baseball Insider series, I give you unfiltered access to detailed scouting reports from people inside or close to Major League Baseball, such as scouts, executives, current and former players and beat reporters, who speak freely to us on the condition of anonymity. But those aren’t the only kinds of baseball people we should be tapping for great information.

I have a high amount of respect for many of the top high stakes fantasy baseball players who compete with some of the most savvy people you will find playing our game. Much like top fantasy baseball analysts, they put a great deal of time and effort into research and scouting. Yet they do it from more unique perspectives than those who may be focused on giving advice to others. These high stakes players are dialed in on their own teams, and make it nearly a full-time job to manage their squads. They may be the closest thing the fantasy baseball world can draw as a comparison to on-field managers. The most active high stakers are real “skippers.” They just don’t have a clubhouse office or a uniform. There is much we can learn from them, too.

So in this edition of the Fantasy Baseball Insider report, I gained access to the mind and desktop of one of the most successful and intuitive high stakes Fantasy Baseball players I have known over the years. He is not a number cruncher, but more of a talent evaluator who has been very successful at annual identification of the best players to target at all points of a draft and on the waiver wire during the season. He has been playing high stakes fantasy baseball with some of the best players on the circuit since 2013. He estimates he has won in the range of $75,000 in recent years. Here is some information he shared with me about some of his goals, accomplishments and approaches.

Insider Spotlight: Our Source’s Story

“In 2013 I entered the high stakes world with a partner and entered three NFBC Draft Champions leagues. We won one and finished second in the other two. The following year I parlayed my winnings into a few others NFBC leagues and increased my profits.  I finished fourth in the Main Event and it sparked a desire to compete for an overall title.”

“The next season I finished second in the NFBC Auction Championship with a $1300 entry. That same season I won two Draft Champions leagues and finished in Top 3 in all four. I have also won my A.L. only league in four of the last eight years.”

“I start my First Draft Champions leagues in early January. Once spring training starts I watch as much as I can, read as much as I can, and never miss a box score. Once players report I keep an eye on beat reporters on Twitter and go through numerous sites mining for any information I can find. I will put together my own written scouting reports in early February, where I list numerous players at each position outside the Top 300. I watch two to four games at a time. I read through many content sites and see what they have to say. Talking baseball with others is also a great source of knowledge. I am friends with many bright-minded people that play high stakes.”

Insights from a Top High Stakes Player

Our source’s scouting reports are followed by my own fantasy spins.

Join us as a top high stakes player teams up with a fantasy analyst to bring you the most comprehensive and unique perspectives you can find to help you navigate through the early part of the schedule. Find out what this annual big winner is thinking about some notable April performances.

Jazz Chisholm

He was one of my biggest targets this offseason in my 15 team NFBC Draft Champions. I grabbed him in round 39 in a January draft. His price rose up to the mid 20s by March. Anyone that has watched him knows he plays hard and gives it his all. Now we know why Marlins owner Derek Jeter  who saw him play in the Arizona Fall League  went all in and traded Zac Gallen to obtain him. He was my bold call for National League Rookie of the Year. This kid is an all-world talent capable of hitting 20-plus HRs while stealing 25-plus bases.

Engel’s Insider Angle: The early returns on Chisholm do indeed make the Miami front office look smart. Chisholm’s Barrel% of 20.5 is in the Top 5 percent of the league. The Exit Velocity of 90.7 is very respectable, as is the Hard Hit Rate of 40.9. Chisholm has a xSLG of .462, but the xBA of .245 points to some cold spells ahead for a young player once the league adjusts more to him when he is healthy. The Sprint Speed of 28.7 is in the Top 6% in MLB, though, and the very promising combination of power and speed is apparent. You likely spent a late round draft choice or an early waiver add on Chisholm, so you should be able to effectively replace him while he is out with a hamstring injury. He likely wasn’t in your original plans to be a significant impact player. So wait for Chisholm to return and enjoy the production that way outdistances your investment. Heck, he is the only batter to ever homer vs. Jacob deGrom on an 0-2 pitch.

Michael Conforto

Hold, hold, hold.  This slump won’t last for long. Conforto is a great hitter, playing for a contender in a contract year. The RBI will be there with Lindor and Alonso hitting in front of him.

Engel’s Insider Angle: There are always impatient fantasy managers, and some of them may have a quicker trigger mindset after a shortened 2020 season. Conforto’s XBA is .267 and the xSLG is .464. His Barrel% of 9.8 is not far off his career mark of 10.7. He’s lowered his Launch Angle a bit but you should still be very confident in him bouncing back with a hot streak soon.

Mike Yastrzemski

He is not a guy I targeted. He plays in a tough division and will face some great arms. His home park doesn’t help either. I never felt he was anything more than a .270 bat with 20-25 HR potential. His lack of stolen bases doesn’t help the cause. I believe he will fix his current contact issues but I’ll let someone else have him and worry about it.

Engel’s Insider Angle: I agree here that we can see .270 and 20-plus homers. His NFBC ADP of 135.8 was a bit high, too. But I ultimately don’t have a major problem with those sort of numbers as a return once he gets things straightened out. I don’t see Yastrzemski striking out 32.6 percent of the time for the rest of the year. I wouldn’t have overdrafted him, but I would deal for Yastrzemski if I did not have to give up much right now.

Alex Verdugo

Verdugo was I guy I targeted with conviction. I am a fan of his skill set. Verdugo hits for contact and will provide better than average power and speed. He very well could contribute close to 100 runs scored this year while hitting .290 with 18 to 20 homers and a dozen or so stolen bases.

Engel’s Insider Angle: Verdugo is off to a pretty good start, hitting well over .300 with 17 runs scored and 12 RBI. He actually has an xBA of .351, which is among the best in the league in that category.  More counting numbers are coming in terms of homers and speed, and Verdugo may start to stir a lot more fantasy buzz soon.

Ryan Mountcastle

I like Mountcastle and took him in numerous Draft Champions leagues this year. His 1B/OF eligibility looms large over a long season. Don’t back away.  Mountcastle is a good hitter and will get over the early season contact issues. His home park and most of the A.L. East stadiums are hitter’s parks. He is a guy I would be all over if I could get him.

Engel’s Insider Angle: He is barely hitting above .170, and a .240 BABIP is not helping him, either. Mountcastle is striking out 32.1 percent of the time so far. His wOBA of .214 is among the lowest in the league so far. The xBA of .192 and the xWOBA of .273 doesn’t generate much hope in the short term. You should bench Mountcastle for now, and be patient for better returns knowing that his minor league numbers were very good in 2018 and 2019.

Keston Hiura

I can’t believe how bad Keston Hiura has been. We knew the batting average would be a drain but I did not expect it to be so low. Is it the change in position? Probably not. I will be benching him for now. He couldn’t hit a balloon right now, but I’ll sit back and watch if he can turn it around. I have a hard time believing he is a bust.

Engel’s Insider Angle: Like Mountcastle, Hiura has a terrible BA (.152), and the BABIP is low (.243). Hiura is striking out 32.8% of the time so far and there is not much hope in that regard, and the XSLG is .339. In the Mountcastle vein, you will have to bench him for now, knowing his previous numbers should indicate improvements soon. There is still power and a bit of speed promise here. If you roster Mountcastle or Hiura, you won’t get much of a return in a trade right now. But it may not take too much to pry them away if you don’t roster either one and want to take a shot on buying low.

Steven Matz

What a start to the season! I would like to believe that getting out of New York has helped him. He has always flashed great stuff. The pressure of pitching for his hometown team may have been too much. There is also the chance that once the rest of the A.L. catches up he could become hittable again. He hasn’t given up the long ball but that could change once it warms up. He will have a great lineup behind him and assuming he can keep the counting stats respectable he could be a SP3/4. I would take a chance on him in a trade, but would not overpay.

Scott Engel with Steven Matz in 2019 at the New York Mets Big League Impact Fantasy Football Draft event for charitable causes. Matz is a Bears fan and an avid Fantasy Football player. 

Engel’s Insider Angle: I can tell you for sure that the pressure of playing in New York is a real thing. I never quite sensed he couldn’t handle New York, but sometimes a player will just thrive in a new environment. Matz has a 2.31 ERA so far, and the XFIP is 3.59, which is still darn good for an American League pitcher. He has not altered his pitch mix at all, but opponents are hitting .128 vs. the sinker and .130 vs the changeup, with xBAs of .216 and .201 against each pitch, respectively. Those numbers against each pitch are mostly better than what we saw in New York in recent seasons. The change of address has worked for Matz so far, and with pitching coach Pete Walker perched on his shoulder, Matz may have found a comfort zone with the Blue Jays.  It won’t be surprising to see him continue to pitch well, as the talents have always been there. The video here also strongly indicates he is locating much better this season.

Tommy Pham

When Pham is playing  he has five-tool potential. The issue is and always will be, can he stay on the field? Hitting behind some great bats in a Padres lineup is a good place to be, but will he be there when you need him? Have that bench option ready. Jurickson Profar is good insurance for Pham.

Engel’s Insider Angle: Not too long after I received this scouting report on Pham, he suffered a calf injury. Pham was hitting .169 with a .216 BABIP with no homers and four runs scored before he suffered the injury, which does not appear to be major. His Hard Hit Rate of 47.1 is in line with his career mark of 46.5, and his xBA of .247 suggests he is indeed underperforming. You can’t depend on Pham to remain available, but there should be better production ahead when he plays.

C.J. Cron

He is certainly is a  great source of cheap power, But he has already reminded us of the holes in his game. I benched him in some leagues when he was on the road. I would wait for a big homestand where he tears it up and then move him for someone more consistent.

Engel’s Insider Angle:  Cron only has three home runs with an ISO of .194 so far. He has always been among the leaders in Max Exit Velocity, but has never been anywhere near the top on terms of Average EV. His career Hard Hit Rate is j35.2. There could be some enjoyable spurts of power, but Cron has bounced around the league and he may not ultimately have any more upside than he had in the past.

Carlos Rodon

During draft season I made Rodon a target in the reserve rounds of my 15-teamers. Once a highly touted arm, he dealt with numerous injuries. He showed that same potential this spring, carrying it into the season with a no-hitter and near perfect game. I like what I see. His current fantasy managers will want a steep price, so he may be hard to obtain in a trade.

Engel’s Insider Angle: Talk about a post-post-post-post-post-post-hype sleeper! Rodon is not doing much of anything different in terms of his pitch mix, as he is still relying heavily on a four-seamer with the slider as his main secondary offering. But so far, opponents are hitting .091 against the four-seamer. But the xBA of .255 is more of what we have seen in the past against the pitch. The slider is at .000/.017. Rodon’s XFIP is at 4.03.  Rodon also has a ridiculous .105 BABIP against him. His fastball velocity, however is up 2.1 mph and the slider velo is up two mph. The Swinging Strike% is up to a career-best 16.0. The positive indicators seem to outweigh the negative ones, so keep riding Rodon for quality results. He’s another feel-good late draft choice/early free agent who will outproduce what you invested.

Chris Paddack

I felt Paddack could return to his 2019 form. He has disappointed. I still feel he can turn it around. He has problems with giving up home runs. As he gets more comfortable and finds his grip he will turn things around. He pitches in a great home park for a contending team with a good lineup behind him. His price has dropped since draft season and Paddack is a good guy to target in a trade.

Engel’s Insider Angle: Paddack has not been able to go deep into games enough yet, but he has also endured some bad luck. He has allowed 14 runs, but only seven have been earned. He also has a 46.6 percent strand rate. Paddack has a 3.50 ERA and a 3.09 FIP. Paddack’s fastball velocity has not dipped and he is showing 5.4 mph more on his cutter. There are reasons for optimism going forward.

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