RADIO
When I have watched the NFL over the years, it has always been fun to pinpoint the moments when I realize that some players are just going to be special. One of the first times I recall saying “this player is going to be very good” was when I watched a young Brett Favre handle the offense like a veteran field director.
Over the years I have watched players such as a young A.J. Green show off his superstar potential immediately. Nowadays, I enjoy watching the pretty jukes of Miles Sanders and flashes of promise from Noah Fant and believe they could be stars and significant Fantasy contributors very soon.
The second-year player who seems to be generating the most fantasy intrigue is Seattle wide receiver DK Metcalf. A player like Sanders seems to have a defined role that can elevate his statistical ceiling. With Metcalf, the upside is so tantalizing, yet how good and productive he can be is uncertain in a positive manner. I am here to admit I have a Fantasy Football man-crush on Metcalf and he keeps climbing up in my ranks and in my draft queues as I consider and review all the factors.
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Beginnings of The Relationship
Opinions were mixed among scouts and analysts on Metcalf as he came out of Ole Miss last season. While most were in agreement that his natural abilities were enticing, there was a lot of criticism and reservations about his route running and fundamentals. Then his agility drills at the Combine led to more doubts and dropped Metcalf's NFL Draft stock.
He did not go in the first round, and as I watched Seattle let him slip by at pick 29, I thought he would have fit well with the Seahawks. After the first round was over, I was talking to Mets outfielder and Seahawks fan Michael Conforto and told him Seattle should strongly consider him in the second round, as they had a need for a potential difference-maker at WR opposite Tyler Lockett.
But the Seahawks then passed on him with the 47th pick, so I started to believe that whoever else landed Metcalf may have been getting a good value as he continued to slip. Then Seattle made a creative move as they often do in drafts, and traded up to nab Metcalf with the 64th overall selection in the second round. I thought it would be an ideal fit for Metcalf all along.
Russell Wilson had never worked with such a talent like him in terms of the size/speed combination. The rookie was headed into a situation where the QB would be well suited for his skill set. Wilson has always been regarded as one of the very best deep passers in the game and needed a big target on key downs and in goal line situations.
Other fantasy experts I really respected did not agree. Veteran analyst Corey Parson said Metcalf was the type who looked great getting off the plane and disappointing on the field. High stakes standout Chris Vaccaro said he “just did not see it happening” for Metcalf and would not be targeting him in drafts. Yet I maintained that Metcalf’s skills would mesh very well with Wilson’s, and he would be an ideal receiving partner for Lockett.
Stirring Feelings of Excitement
Metcalf heard the doubters and worked diligently on his techniques heading into and during his rookie season. He made an immediate impact in his first pro game, catching a 42-yard pass and finishing with 89 yards. Metcalf scored for the first time in Week Two and had a 54-yard catch in Week Three. In Week Four, he had a 30-yard catch in Week Six and a 37-yarder in Week Seven.
The big-play skills were very evident in the first half of the schedule. His route running, techniques and abilities to diagnose defenses progressively improved, and Metcalf displayed more development as an all-around pass-catcher in the second half of the season. He finished the first half with a two-TD outing in Week Eight.
After not catching more than four passes in a game during the first half of the season, Metcalf had a pair of six-reception games in Weeks 9 and 10, with his first career 100-yard outing in the first of those two matchups. His six-catch, 123-yard performance in the 10th week featured a 53-yard TD reception and a key 29-yarder in overtime. Metcalf had five six-catch games between Weeks 9 and 17 and caught three TD passes in the final four games. He finished the season averaging 15.5 yards per catch (13th in the NFL) with seven TD receptions and nine games of 60-plus yards.
The Big Breakthrough and Saying “I Love You as a Fantasy Player”
Metcalf flashed a lot of potential during the regular season, but he only had one 100-yard game. He was not consistently winning on tight battles for catches and drops were also an issue (seven). According to playerprofiler.com, Metcalf’s catch rate of 58 percent was 77th in the league, and was glaring when you consider Wilson had a 66.1 percent completion rate last season.
Metcalf impressively demonstrated he was ready to start challenging defenders more frequently in an epic showing in the NFC Wild Card Game at Philadelphia, a true breakout performance I witnessed first-hand while covering the game for Seahawks.com. Metcalf caught seven of nine targets for 160 yards and a TD with his longest reception covering 53 yards. The yardage total set an NFL playoff record for a rookie and was a Seahawks postseason record.
In the postgame locker room, Lockett told me that Metcalf showed he could prevail in key situations where he had to win against defenders, and that factor was a big reason for his great outing.
"He took advantage of all his opportunities. He really did great in those one-on-one matchups,” Lockett said.
Late in the game, Wilson threw the ball up to Metcalf for a 36-yard catch that sealed the Seattle victory. Metcalf indicated that Wilson had been encouraging him throughout the season to get the upper hand on tough catches, and he delivered in his first postseason outing.
"All year he has been telling me don't let the ball come down, don't let the ball come down. That's all I was thinking. Just attack the ball,” Metcalf said.
I left Lincoln Financial Field that night knowing that I had fallen in love with Metcalf for fantasy purposes, because he had proved himself when the spotlight was the brightest, and his career was just beginning.
Metcalf's recent ADP action has not fluctuated but we could see a rise soon as the preseason buzz swells. (playerprofiler.com)
Going Steady on Drafting Metcalf
Metcalf’s ADP is 58 overall and No. 23 at WR. That was right in line with my rankings a month ago (55 overall and 22 at WR), but with further review of Metcalf’s rookie year, I find myself pushing him up closer to the Top 15. There are so many other Fantasy players who are enthralled by the upside, and while I have Cooper Kupp and DeVante Parker ranked ahead of him, I have to take Metcalf over those WRs in many drafts to ensure having him on my team.
If you truly want Metcalf you will have to make an aggressive move and target him in the 15 to 20 range. I have landed him as a Fantasy WR2 or WR3 in the fourth to fifth rounds depending on league size and makeup. He is often being taken ahead of Lockett, I do believe the Seattle offense can support two Fantasy WR2s. Wilson led the league in TD passes last year, but was 12th in attempts. He is incredibly efficient and there is some conjecture the Seahawks may open up the passing game more in 2020.
I have consistently been able to select Metcalf in early drafts, and as he continues to gain experience while working with the ideal QB to suit his talents, there seems to be unlimited promise. Some of the most optimistic early pro comparisons on him were to Julio Jones, Demaryius Thomas and Andre Johnson. Eventually, it’s not crazy to think he could land in that range of performers if he reaches his full potential. His floor can be as a very good Fantasy WR2. In one of my dynasty leagues, I traded Chris Godwin for Metcalf and Darren Waller while also swapping two early draft choices. That is how much I believe he will become an outstanding Fantasy player in the future.
Sigh. I have a real Fantasy Football crush on DK Metcalf and I think my feelings will deepen during the 2020 season. He will at least be a top-level fantasy WR3 with high-end WR2 promise.
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