RADIO
A week into the NFL Free Agency period, veteran receiver Emmanuel Sanders signed with the New Orleans Saints. This doesn't appear to be a major move in the grand scheme of things, but it is important to analyze, both for the Saints and for Sanders himself.
One clear benefit is that Sanders will be playing with one of the best quarterbacks in NFL history in Drew Brees. He will also be playing across from the best wide receiver he has ever played with in Michael Thomas. Since he is also playing with Alvin Kamara, Sanders is going to be on the best offense he has ever been on. This is a great way for the 33-year-old to wind down his career.
For the Saints this is also a wonderful signing. The team, as great as it is, needed a quality receiver across from Thomas. They could not count on him to again grab over 145 receptions and remain healthy long-term. Emmanuel Sanders is a proven asset who will not take time to acclimate to the NFL like a rookie drafted in the first-round would. With the offensive line getting a bit older, this frees up the Saints to concentrate on acquiring protection in the NFL draft in April. It also brings another veteran presence into a locker room who can lead by example. How will this affect the skill players from a fantasy perspective?
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Trickle-Down Effect
First and foremost, we need to look at the impact on the quarterback. Drew Brees is the most accurate passer in NFL history. But his arm is not what it once was. He is more of a check-down passer in recent years. In this case, it works just fine as he has Michael Thomas and Alvin Kamara to work with. Emmanuel Sanders now adds another element to the passing game that has been missing, as Ted Ginn Jr. isn't what he used to be and Tre'Quan Smith has been a disappointment. That said, Sanders is often perceived as a field-stretcher due to his speed but he actually does most of his work closer to the line of scrimmage, which fits Brees and the Saints' modus operandi.
Whether it be with Pittsburgh to begin his career or recently with Denver and San Francisco, Sanders is a quarterback’s dream. He's a hard-working everyman receiver who just uses his physicality to get open and make plays. Playing in an unheard-of 17 games in 2019 between Denver and San Francisco, Sanders caught 66 total passes and had five TD. After coming over from the Broncos, he immediately stepped into the role of comfort blanket for Jimmy Garoppolo. This paid dividends in helping the 49ers reach the Super Bowl. He can provide the same comfort level for Brees. As Thomas gets covered by the opposing defense's best cover corners, Sanders will find open seams. It may not be possible for Brees to be more accurate, but he should remain in the QB1 fantasy conversation despite some analysts writing him off.
Speaking of Michael Thomas, Sanders will eat into his targets for sure. The Saints have not had a second receiver the caliber of him on the roster since Thomas’ rookie season with Brandin Cooks. In that season, Thomas still caught 92 passes. He is a much different receiver now. Whereas he was the WR2 that season, he is clearly the number one now. He is not going to drop off a cliff and is still the overall WR1 for fantasy though. What he may lose in targets and receptions he will make up for in yardage and possibly touchdowns. It is hard to imagine but the offense in New Orleans is only going to get better in 2020. It starts with Thomas, Sanders and the rest of the passing game.
The lone downside of the addition is for Jared Cook owners. The targets which will be going to Sanders are going to have to come from somewhere. Yes, some will come from the likes of Ted Ginn and Keith Kirkwood. The majority though will come from the pocket of Jared Cook. In 2019, Cook caught 43 of his 65 targets for 705 yards and a career-high nine touchdowns. His 66% catch rate is not wonderful. With the target decline set to come this will make him a fringe TE2. At this catch rate, even if you remove only 15 targets from him, Cook will only finish with 33 receptions for 540 yards. His TD number is also set to have a sharp decline. Not only because of Sanders but also because it was a career-high for him. While everyone else is excited at the prospects of Sanders, Cook might just want to be happy with getting to a Super Bowl in the final years of his career.
As for the running game, it will also take a step forward. Not only due to Alvin Kamara being healthy again but due to this addition of another weapon for teams to be concerned about. Coming off a season of 14 rushing touchdowns in 2018, Kamara disappointed in 2019, being limited to five. A sore ankle and the injury to Brees leading Teddy Bridgewater to solely concentrate on Thomas for five weeks were key factors. Now that Sanders is there and Brees is back, look for Kamara to again be in the top-five for fantasy running backs for the coming season.
Latavius Murray proved to have great worth in 2019. Some were skeptical of how he would compare in this offense to Mark Ingram. He did so just fine. In many games, he was the dominant force in the run game, and this bodes well for the coming season also. The Saints are a team who runs the ball more than people think. Murray and Kamara are both set to have fantasy value which will not go down due to the addition of Sanders. It was only two seasons ago when both Kamara and Ingram used this offense to finish in the top-six. So, a top-24 finish for both is not a lot to ask.
Sanders' Fantasy Outlook
So, what can we expect from Emmanuel Sanders? He was a top-15 receiver in Denver, and he could be again in New Orleans. We have seen on many occasions two players on the same team finishing in the top-24 at the wide receiver position. From Brandon Marshall and Eric Decker to even Sanders and Demaryius Thomas, it has been done. Catching passes from Brees and not having to worry about primary coverage means a great season could be in store for him. He is certainly worth a draft pick in the seventh or eighth-round of redraft leagues. That pick could easily net you a fantasy WR2 at the end of the season.
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