Eduardo Rodriguez to the Tigers - Fantasy Baseball Impact

What a way to kick off the baseball week. The Hot Stove is scorching, and it is not even December yet. Over the last week, Many teams have been discussing Eduardo Rodriguez, one being the Detroit Tigers, and on Monday morning, news dropped that Rodriguez would be signing with the Tigers. The deal is five years and a total of $80 million after incentives. In addition, there is an opt-out for Rodriguez after the second season if he decides he would like to test free agency yet again.

Rodriguez is coming off a very successful 2021 season following 2020 that saw him miss the season due to massive complications from COVID-19. As a result, many speculated on how Rodriguez would fare amid potential health concerns that may still linger from the struggles with COVID. It’s safe to say Rodriguez proved most wrong as he went on to throw the second-most innings he has in his career at the big league level.

Now, Rodriguez heads to the Tigers, who have been rebuilding over the last couple of seasons and maybe close to making big things happen. They had a relatively good 2021 season and will look to take another step forward in 2022. The deep set of minor league talent is getting close as well as the team is willing to spend some more money as they have been linked to Justin Verlander, Carlos Correa, and others. Business is picking up in Detroit, and the signing of Eduardo Rodriguez is a giant step in the right direction. 

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A Deeper Look at Rodriguez’s 2021 Season

First, let me be upfront and let everyone know that I have been TEAM EROD for quite some time, and I love seeing everyone show him love with him signing with the Tigers.

Most will immediately look at Rodriguez’s 4.74 ERA and immediately say he was terrible. I get it looks awful after back-to-back seasons with an ERA of 3.81 and 3.82, but let’s look deeper. When looking at the usual underlying metrics like xERA, FIP, and xFIP, his 2021 season outshined the other two seasons.

By looking at the advanced metrics, Rodriguez could have been an entire run better this season but may have been a bit unlucky. A couple of significant changes from previous seasons were the massive jump in BABIP and the drop in LOB%. Additionally, he was allowing more on base and was not getting left on than the previous season. Two statistics that should return to previous norms. 

A .363 BABIP is highly unlikely to occur again, and that dropping alone will help his ERA a ton. Throw in the fact more should be left on, and we should get our old Rodriguez back.

Rodriguez is one of those rare pitchers that brings a five-pitch mix into action and uses four pitches at least 11% of the time. The main two pitches Rodriguez uses are the four-seam fastball (39.9%) and changeup (23.1%). His third most used pitch is the cutter (17.7%), and that appears to be the pitch that did the most damage to his 2021 season.

Looking at the chart above, it is easy to see the cutter’s effect on his overall production. Comparing the two seasons show the significant differences, not to mention the xStat differences. Weirdly enough, Rodriguez struck out more in 2021 with the cutter, but it was a risky pitch that when he missed, it was hit well. Hit just as hard as 2019 but faired much better in 2021. 

Rodriguez pitched very well in 2021, and there should be expectations for an even better 2022 season. Let’s say even a return to his 2018 and 2019 numbers. It was great to see Rodrgiez throw 170.1 innings (regular season and postseason) after missing 2020. He should be in line for another significant season, hopefully approaching the 200+ innings he pitched in 2019.

2022 Outlook with the Tigers

With the addition of Rodriguez, the Tigers now have a 29-year-old (will be 29 early April) ace to go with Casey Mize, Tarik Skubal, and Matt Manning. They may still add another arm like Justin Verlander or fill in with Tyler Alexander or others already on the roster. It may not be long till stud prospects like Joey Wentz and Alex Faedo join the team either. 

The Tigers already moved to add Tucker Barnhart earlier this offseason, a substantial upgrade from Eric Haase, who was with the Tigers when it comes to pitch framing. Barnhart is even a slight upgrade on Christian Vazquez when it comes to framing. 

When looking at the rest of the defense, the Tigers were middle of the pack in defensive efficiency while the Red Sox were dead last, but when it comes to defensive runs saved, the Red Sox were middle of the back with two, and the Tigers were 29th  at -51. The new defense behind Rodriguez will need to get better and should with the addition of Carlos Correa or other potential free-agent acquisitions. 

2022 Fantasy Outlook

Rodriguez will once again be a significant fantasy target of mine and many more by the buzz of the room. Through the first seven NFBC DC drafts, Rodriguez has an ADP of 192 with a high of 143 and a low of 245. That will continue to climb. 

The Steamer projections have Rodriguez back with an ERA of 3.83 and a 24.7% K%, which seems low. However, Rodriguez is coming off a season with a 28% K% which was the highest of his career, and a 7% BB% the lowest of his career. Moving the AL Central, not to mention a pitcher-friendly ballpark like Comerica, should just help his overall fantasy outlook. Do not be surprised if Rodriguez is closer to a pick of 100-125 as the season approaches, and he may well be worth it. He will be a solid SP2 and even better SP3 on any fantasy roster. 

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