RADIO
BALLER MOVE: Target in drafts ~pick 199
CURRENT ADP: ~224
ANALYSIS: Edouard Julien succeeded in his MLB debut, hitting .263/.381/.459 with 16 HR in 408 PAs. The now 25-year-old appears primed for a successful follow-up, though the shape of his production will probably look different. Power was a big part of his game in 2023, but his 23.9 FB% was very low while his 94.3 mph average airborne exit velocity and 108.9 mph max exit velocity were around average.
His 31.4% HR/FB is due for regression, taking most of Julien's power with it. Julien should be able to make up for it with an improved batting average though. His 31.4 K% a season ago seems alarming, but his underlying 17.2% chase rate and 10 SwStr% suggest a much lower rate moving forward.
Julien's low 37.6 overall Swing% may lead to more strikeouts than expected, but he should still have no problem getting his K% to 25% or less. Julien seldom pops out (2 IFFB% last season) and hits few flies, so his BABIP should remain robust even if he cannot repeat last season's .371 mark.
Projected as Minnesota's leadoff hitter, Julien offers average and runs upside with a little pop at his current ADP of 210.10. He's an even better selection in OBP leagues where his 15.7 BB% matters.
Edouard Julien hit this homer so hard he lost his helmet. 😆 pic.twitter.com/JTW00YweAW
— MLB (@MLB) September 15, 2023
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