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March Madness is officially here and RotoBaller will be giving a full breakdown on each tournament region, including some ootential sleepers and busts. Here we'll be taking a look at the East Region.
I'm here to tell you some teams that I believe in - this should help you make the right tournament bracket decisions. Below I analyze the top four seeds, a potential bust, and a potential final four candidate. Hopefully my college basketball predictions can help you win your March Madness brackets. Now let's get to it.
Editor's Note: Be sure to check out the rest of our NCAA tournament columns and advice, including a guide to fill out your bracket. Tournament winners/picks, sleepers, busts and breakdowns of each region.
East Region top four seeds
Top Four Seeds: No. 1 Villanova, No. 2 Purdue, No. 3 Texas Tech, No. 4 Wichita State
This is the weakest group of top four seeds.
Villanova is the overall favorite to win it all at 4.5-1. They have been rolling of late winning their last four by double digits (granted, their last game, the Big East championship went to overtime, yet they won by 10.) The Wildcats boast Player of the Year favorite Jalen Brunson. They are the second ranked team in Ken Pom and have the best offensive metrics, first in offensive efficiency and in Ken Pom's rankings. Their main weakness is not having a rim protector, but despite that rim protector, they're 22nd in adjusted defense, per Ken Pom. One more thing I love about 'Nova is Donte DiVincenzo. He's a lethal shooter with a sweet stroke that can get hot at any moment.
Purdue is 15-1 to win it all and they've been flying under the radar. They lost in the Big Ten championship one week ago to Michigan. The Boilermakers were so consistent this season losing six times all year (two in a row in November and three in a row in February). They are great on paper ranking second in Ken Pom's adjusted offense and 28th in adjusted defense. No one is getting to the room against 7-2 big man Isaac Haas. When Haas takes the bench, they bring in 7-3 Matt Haarms from Amsterdam. Good luck going inside on them. You'll need to play small ball to beat them.
Texas Tech was a big surprise this year. They are led by second year head coach Chris Beard. He coached No. 14 Stephen F. Austin two years ago to within one point of a Sweet 16 trip. (And what do you know, they take on Stephen. F. Austin in the First Round.) They are a feisty defensive team rankings 15th in defensive scoring and third in Ken Pom's adjusted defense. They've been dubbed, "the Virginia of the Big 12." The Red Raiders have had their ups and downs though. They went on a six-game winning streak between January and February, but then went on a four-game losing streak before closing out the regular season winning their last two.
Wichita State moved up a weight class from the Missouri Valley to the American this year and held their own. There are six players who average more than eight points per game. They are the fifth ranked offense per Ken Pom and average the 17th most points per game, 83, but their defense is horrific. The Shockers are ranked 105th in Ken Pom's defensive stats and allow 71 points per game, 140th.
In my guide to filling out a bracket column, I gave the formula to winning a championship and said Florida has the recipe. "The Gators are 6-2 vs. AP top-25 teams, tied for most this season. They have three senior guards that can carry them in Chris Chiozza, leading scorer Jalen Hudson, and Egor Koulechov. Let's not forget about Junior guard KeVaughn Allen who led the team last year in scoring. All four average double-digits. This team made the Elite Eight last year losing to South Carolina. They have a top-40 offense, 30 and a stingy defense ranking 25th. {per Ken Pom}"
I love how they lost in the SEC quarterfinals to lose some steam and come in undervalued. Who knows if we'll see the Florida team that ransacked Kentucky two weeks ago or the team that lost at home to Georgia and on the road to Vanderbilt. Whichever team we see, this is an awful spot for them. First, they have to play the winner of the play-in game. Every year since the field expanded to 68 teams, the play-in winner has went on to win a minimal of one game in the field go 64. I assume UCLA will win because they are a 3-point favorite and are simply better. They have a star guard in Aaron Holiday (Jrue's little brother) who was all-Pac 12 first team and was on the all-defensive league team. They also have senior forward Thomas Welsh who can nail the 18-footer over and over again.
Whoever wins this Florida/UCLA game (and this is assuming the Bonnies don't beat UCLA) can make a deep run. If you're filling out one bracket, take UCLA in this spot. If you're making more than one bracket though, I'd take Florida to the Sweet 16 in one and UCLA in the other. Watch how the Bonnies win Tuesday night and my whole UCLA pick goes poof.
Bust of the Region
It could be Florida or Texas Tech because that first weekend's quadrant is brutal. But, I'm going to go with Wichita State. They are a 12-point favorite over Marshall in the First Round and that game will be no easy task. I've already told you the Shockers are a bad defensive team and Marshall can exploit that. The Thundering Herd, "ranked within the top 10 in shooting percentage inside the arc." They also were 10th in scoring with 83.6 points per game. and if they can continue that hot shooting, they'll be able to shock the Shockers. If Marshall doesn't beat Wichita State, I fully expect West Virginia to knock them off in the Second Round. That leads me to my Final Four pick.
Final Four Pick
The Mountaineers of West Virginia or as I like to call them, Press Virginia. They are 35-1 to win the National Championship. That's better odds than No. 3 seed Texas Tech and Wichita State who are both 40-1. So despite them being a No. 5 seed, Vegas values the as the third best team in the region.
They face off against Murray State in the First Round. I'm always nervous of the 5/12 matchup, but they're a 9.5-point favorite. The Racers won't be racing against this ferocious defense. They are solid in offensive efficiency, 17th, and defensive, 30th. But they struggle tremendously against the press. They "dropped from a 93rd percentile offense overall (without opponent adjustments) to a 65th percentile offense against the press, per Synergy Sports." West Virginia doesn't stop pressing and once they start to take a little control of the game against Murray State, it's over.
Now, it’s tough to play West Virginia on 36-hours of rest. Since Bob Huggins took over in 2007 they've made eight NCAA Tournament's and in seven of them, they've been knocked out in their first game of the weekend (that's either the First Round, Sweet 16 or Final Four. Only in 2011 did they lose in the second game of the weekend, Second Round). They can be beat when you have 4-5 days to prepare for them, but one day to try and solve their lethal full-court press is tough. It's no wonder they force the fifth most turnovers per game in the country with 16.5. Murray State won't know what hit them, then Wichita State or Marshall has a day to get ready for them. Not going to work.
So that means if they were to get knocked off, it would be in the Sweet 16. I think they take on Villanova (assuming they beat Alabama/Virginia Tech, which they should) and that will be a terrific game. The best offense against a press-defense. Whoever wins that game will go to the Final Four, I don't foresee the winner of Purdue/ UCLA (my other Sweet 16 matchup) being able to beat 'Nova or West Virginia.
That game is so hard to forecast, but defense wins championships. West Virginia point guard Jevon Carter will go right at Jalen Brunson and this team won't be afraid of 'Nova. I'll go with the Mountaineers.
Like I said in my how to fill out a bracket column, "Be contrarian. Don't pick the popular teams that everybody else will. If you pick a team that not many other people have to either win the championship or make the Final Four and they do it, then you'll be one of the only people to get those points."
West Virginia is the contrarian play. If they go to the Final Four, you'll be one of the only people in your pool to have them and immediately vault those standings.
And one more thing to add, and I'm the only one who probably cares, but the last time West Virginia made the Final Four, 2011, they were in the top-right quadrant of the bracket. History repeats itself.
