RADIO
Antonio Losada takes a look at the ADP variation of four quarterbacks from the start of May to the start of June and assesses their situations and the reasons behind those moves.
I am going to start this column by introducing the content of ADP, which I'm pretty sure you know what it is about. Average Draft Position (ADP) indicates the average position where a player is drafted over more than one fantasy football draft. You can consider it as the price you have to pay to draft and get a player in your team. A high ADP (that is, actually, a low-numbered ADP) means that a player is getting off draft boards early, and thus you'll need to draft him in the first rounds if you truly want him.
Low or high ADP values, though, are not gospel. Each of us fantasy GMs have our strategies and value players differently depending on what we think is the most important for them to have in terms of abilities. No matter what, though, ADPs are good to know how the "average value" of the "average GM" you'll be drafting against is at for each asset (in this case, the players). By now, with the free agency and the draft well finalized and just a few players left to be signed, it makes sense to go look at how ADPs are varying during the last month as we get closer to peak draft-season.
In this series, I’ll highlight players at each skill position seeing significant fluctuation since the start of May leading up to June using data from FFPC drafts that have taken place in that period. Today, it's time to look at four quarterback fallers.
Quarterbacks - ADP Fallers
Jameis Winston (New Orleans Saints)
If you play in any sort of dynasty league, go draft Jameis. If you don't, fade him for good. I never ever wanted to write those two sentences (most of all the second one), but here we are. Winston is absolutely blocked by a surefire player squeezing his last days of play in Drew Brees, and it is not that a bad game or two will see Brees hit the bench.
Winston-truthers like me waited on him for long, but he's starting to fall downhill as we are slowly accepting his fate. I for the love of God won't ever put Taysom Hill over him in the pecking order if Brees goes down injured (he already missed time last season, remember), but even with that, there isn't much upside in drafting Jameis these days. He's a fantasy football darling because he's ruthless on the field, so we're missing a big weekly boom/bust play for 2020.
Jimmy Garoppolo (San Francisco 49ers)
While Jimmy G's drop isn't as steep as the two covered above, he's still gone down more than a full round in ADP during the past month. San Francisco drafted a couple of receivers in the last draft (notably Brandon Aiyuk with the 25th pick) but even that hasn't helped Garoppolo's stock lately. Jimmy's 2020 year doesn't look very good if we take the projections to heart: he profiles as a 228-fantasy points player which would make him the QB20 on the year for an average of 14.3 PPG.
The problem with Garoppolo, the same as with Kirk Cousins (he missed the cut to be in this column by a hair), is that he needs to be hyper-efficient due to his low volume of passes and nonexistent rushing upside. Garoppolo attempted the fifth-fewest passes among QBs with at least 14 games started, and ranked only above Goff, Brady, and Rivers in rushing yards with 62 all year long... Bench option at the very best.
Cam Newton (Free Agent)
Not much to say about Newton. I still think Newton will find a team, but the chances of watching him starting early in the season are low to none. He will wait for the perfect team and situation to pop up, but that is not on the near horizon with the COVID pandemic still going on, and no trials/tests allowed, which is impacting Newton's ability to convince franchises to give him a chance. If you can afford to stash him, great, if not, you'll be good passing on him as most of the folks are already doing.
Jared Goff (Los Angeles Rams)
It looks like people have finally lost their faith in Goff and are labeling his 2018 Super Bowl stint as a mirage. Actually, Goff's 2019 was much closer to his 2017 season than 2018: the scored 255.3 PPR in '17, went for 310.3 in '18, and regressed to 251.5 last year. The Rams have lost both Todd Gurley and Brandin Cooks, and it doesn't seem like the additions of rookies RB Cam Akers and WR Van Jefferson have helped Goff's that much.
While Goff is still a great fantasy asset, the problem with him was the relation between his ADP and his actual outcome. Goff projects as a top QB2 with QB1 upside. He is expected to break the 255-point mark next year, which would be good for QB13, but unless his ADP doesn't stay in the low 120s or lower, he might be considered an overpayment all-options considered.
