RADIO
My friend Andrew Cooper (@CoopAFiasco on X) says it all the time. To be a top-producing tight end for fantasy football, you have to be one of two things, an athletic freak or a top-2 target earner on your team. Preferably both, with a lean toward being a top-2 target earner first. But it's an added benefit for a tight end to be highly athletic also. David Njoku fit that mold perfectly last season. He was a top-2 target earner on his team and is super athletic. But just because he did it last season doesn't mean he'll do it this season.
For this season, it's important to first take a look at depth charts and ascending players. Just because a tight end was a top-2 target earner last season doesn't mean he'll be that this season. Maybe there was a rookie who came up to speed late in the season. Or maybe a team added another pass-catching option in the offseason to compete for targets. There are a multitude of reasons why we should fade tight ends in fantasy football.
It's not always easy to talk about players to avoid. In fact, it's much easier to talk about the players I like. It kind of just rolls off the tongue. But in order to get to those players I like, I have to first eliminate players I don't like. It can be an uncomfortable exercise, but it's highly necessary. Here are five tight ends I'm avoiding in 2024 fantasy football for a variety of reasons.
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2024 Tight Ends to Avoid
Travis Kelce, Kansas City Chiefs
Kelce averaged 11.5 half-PPR fantasy points per game (PPG) in 2023. He hasn’t averaged that few PPG since 2016. That’s still not bad, but it’s not elite either. 11.5 PPG would have been good for WR25. In his prime, Kelce was scoring as a top-5 WR with TE-eligibility, giving him a massive positional advantage that was so highly-coveted. It appears those days are long gone.
While he can still add some value, the tight end position appears deeper in 2024 than it has in seasons past. I know, I know, we say that every year, but this year feels different. I mean, right now, Dalton Kincaid, Kyle Pitts, George Kittle, Evan Engram, and Brock Bowers are TEs 5-9. Some elite guys there with massive upside. And they can all be had 2-3 rounds later than Kelce.
So why else should we avoid Kelce in 2024? Well, the Chiefs added Marquise Brown this offseason. For the first time in his career, Kelce will be competing with not one, but two receivers capable of earning 100 targets in Brown and Rashee Rice. That’s never been the case in his 10-year career with the Chiefs.
So we’ve got a soon-to-be 35-year-old that had declining opportunity and efficiency metrics across the board in 2023. Instead of spending a 3rd or 4th round pick on Kelce, who now has to fight with two other legit receiving options, spend a 5th on Trey McBride, Mark Andrews, or Kincaid, who could all be the highest target earners on their respective teams.
David Njoku, Cleveland Browns
This one hurts a lot after the breakout year Njoku had in 2023. But we can’t pretend to ignore the splits with and without Deshaun Watson under center. With Watson, Njoku averaged 38.3 yards on 5.8 targets per game. Without Watson (and instead with Joe Flacco and Dorian Thompson-Robinson), he averaged 65.2 yards on 8.8 targets per game. Watson connected with Njoku just once in the end zone in five games.
Flacco is no longer in town, so the dream of Njoku as the number one option is all but dead. Not only that, but the Browns brought in Jerry Jeudy to team up with Amari Cooper and Elijah Moore. The last thing fantasy managers want is more target competition for their favorite tight end. The verdict might still be out on Jeudy, but he’s a former 1st-round pick that has earned 100+ targets in two of his first four seasons. Even Njoku doesn't seem thrilled at the addition:
Dating back to his years in Houston, no tight end playing with Watson ever had more than 55 targets in a season (Jordan Akins in 2019). He never played with a weapon quite like Njoku, but he’s also not accustomed to utilizing a tight end like other quarterbacks. And we saw that early in 2023. Watson much preferred throwing to Cooper and Moore. Now add Jeudy to the mix and Njoku becomes an avoid for me at TE10 in 2024.
T.J. Hockenson, Minnesota Vikings
Kirk Cousins out, Sam Darnold in. Or at least that’s the Vikings’ starting quarterback as of the publish date of this article. That’s a pretty sizeable downgrade, which means a downgrade for all of the pass-catching options in Minnesota as well. Yes, even Justin Jefferson gets a slight downgrade for those wondering. But the biggest downgrade of all in 2024 is tight end T.J. Hockenson.
Not all will Hockenson have to fend off the best receiver in the league in JJ, but he’ll also be competing for targets with ascending 2nd-year receiver Jordan Addison. It took him a few weeks to get going, but once he did, the USC rookie looked really good. He posted a modest 18% target share, but it’s easy to see a path to 20% or greater in 2024.
So Hockenson will be competing for targets with Jefferson’s 30% target share and Addison’s 20% target share. In six games Hockenson played with Jefferson and Addison last season, he saw a 19.7% target share. His full season average was 24.3%, so obviously a big dip when sharing the field with both guys.
Add into the mix the fact that Hockenson tore his ACL at the end of the 2023 season. Not to mention he didn’t have surgery until a month later on January 29, 2024. Even if he’s ready for the start of the 2024 campaign, don’t expect him to play a full complement of snaps right off the bat. The injury, plus Addison’s emergence, plus the quarterback change to Darnold gives me major pause on Hockenson as the current TE14 on Underdog in 2024.
Dalton Schultz, Houston Texans and Cole Kmet, Chicago Bears
The Texans added Stefon Diggs and the Bears added Keenan Allen. Both Schultz and Kmet got the ball out of necessity last season. With elite receiving options added to both teams, steer clear of these volume-based tight ends for fantasy football in 2024.
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