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You don't win your fantasy league on draft night. However, you can certainly lose it. In this article, I'll take a look at four players I'm actively shying away from early in drafts. You might even consider these guys "landmines." Drafting them instead of some other players with more upside could lead to a last-place finish in 2024.
So, what makes these guys landmines? Well, each one of them leaves something to be desired and it could be their age, role, opportunity, coaching, or general team environment. Regardless, each one of these four players has at least a couple of red flags in their profile heading into the 2024 season.
Instead of thinking to yourself that things could change, it would be wise to opt for other options instead. If you don't, you could leave your draft feeling regretful. Without further ado, here are four early-round landmines to avoid this season.
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Davante Adams, Las Vegas Raiders
Despite being 31 and heading into his 11th NFL season, Adams is still commanding targets at an elite level. His 33% target share over the last two seasons has led to a league-high 355 targets. However, not all targets are created equal. This reality became apparent in 2023 when his yards per target (YPT) and yards per catch (YPC) dipped to their lowest levels since 2015.
So why did that happen? It could have been a variety of reasons. Adams' age is the obvious answer, as most receivers start to see a decline in production post-30. However, there’s probably more to it than that. Adams lost consistency from his quarterback play going from Derek Carr to Aidan O’Connell and Jimmy Garoppolo.
While Carr was never lighting the world on fire, he knew how to deliver the football to Adams. How do we know that? Per PlayerProfiler, Adams had a target quality of 5.42, a catchable target rate of 72.7%, and was third among wide receivers in yards after the catch (528) with Carr in 2022. In 2023, his target quality dipped to just 4.55, his catchable target rate was just 66.9%, and he was just 25th among wide receivers in yards after the catch (336).
According to wide receiver guru, Matt Harmon, 87.5% of Adams’ routes came on the outside (most since 2016) and 85.5% came on the line (most in career) last season. That could have been due to the addition of Jakobi Meyers. And now to make matters worse for Adams in 2024, the Raiders added one of the best tight end prospects in recent history in Brock Bowers. Meyers and Bowers could very well keep Adams tight to the line and on the outside, thus lowering his fantasy upside in this Las Vegas offense.
Last season, despite being top five in target share, target rate, air yards, snap share, and route participation rate, Adams finished as WR14 averaging 15.6 PPR fantasy points per game. Let one of your league-mates draft him in the second round instead.
Zay Flowers, Baltimore Ravens
Flowers flashed as a rookie. However, despite the 20th-best target share among wide receivers (24.4%), he finished the year with just 108 targets. He was the WR31, averaging just 12.9 PPR fantasy points.
It’s not to say he can’t improve in Year Two, but Flowers was given every opportunity as a rookie and still couldn’t crack the top 30 wideouts. Per PlayerProfiler, he had a 100% route participation rate on an 86.2% snap share. Again, he was a full-time player right out of the gates, but the Ravens’ low-volume passing attack didn’t leave enough meat on the bone for Flowers.
In the past two seasons, Baltimore has been in the bottom five in pass attempts, averaging just 28.9 per game. Whether we like it or not, Lamar Jackson will average between 8-10 rush attempts per game. Now add Derrick Henry to the mix. It wouldn’t be shocking to once again see the Ravens near the bottom of the league in passing volume in 2024 given their consistent success in the ground game and their projected win total of 11.5 games.
While Flowers is indeed a very good player, the Ravens have also been hyping up Rashod Bateman and Isaiah Likely in training camp. Both players could have more of a role than they’ve had in the past, especially if Bateman, a former first-round pick is able to stay healthy. This could lead to fewer opportunities for Flowers when the Ravens do decide to air it out.
TE Coach George Godsey on why Isaiah Likely has done so well: "It's the chemistry between him and Lamar. He's a guy we're moving all over the place. ... The chemistry is there. The communication -- it's been wonderful listening to him and Lamar working together. I love it."
— Sarah Ellison (@sgellison) July 27, 2024
Not to mention there's the presence of Pro Bowl tight end Mark Andrews. Last season, Flowers scored just one measly touchdown in nine games playing with Andrews. Meanwhile, he scored five touchdowns in the seven games he played without Andrews. Andrews has always, and will continue to be, a favorite of Jackson’s in the red zone. Between him, Lamar, and King Henry, there are now at least three elite options when the Ravens get into the red zone. That’s not great for Flowers’ upside.
Now consider his acquisition cost. According to FantasyPros’ average draft position (ADP), he’s going to cost you the 46th overall pick (WR25). That’s a tough pill to swallow. Even with the room for growth, it’s hard to see the upside case for Flowers in an offense that probably won’t throw more than 30 times per game in 2024. If you look back at last season, Flowers averaged just 4.9 targets per game in games he ran 30 or fewer routes compared to 8.6 in games he ran over 30 routes. Let someone else draft this early-round landmine based on the Ravens' past offensive tendencies of favoring the run game.
George Pickens, Pittsburgh Steelers
No more Diontae Johnson, so the breakout season for Pickens is upon us, right? Not so fast. He’s yet to touch a 22% target share in each of his first two NFL seasons. Now he gets Arthur Smith as his offensive coordinator. This guy somehow couldn’t figure out how to maximize Drake London, a guy who registered a 29.4% target share as a rookie or Kyle Pitts, one of the most athletic tight end prospects of all-time. London has never finished better than WR35 and it’s not debatable who the better all-around receiver is between him and Pickens.
Now try to explain why Pickens has an ADP of 53 overall (WR27) this season. Most will point to his games played without Johnson last season. In those four games, he averaged 89.3 receiving yards on 8.3 targets per game. That looks pretty elite. But if you take a deeper dive, Pat Freiermuth missed one of those games as well. In the game he missed, Pickens went off for 130 yards and a touchdown on 10 targets so the averages are skewed a bit if you only look at the games Johnson was out of the lineup.
Make no mistake about it, Pickens is a big play waiting to happen, as evidenced by his league-leading 18.1 yards per reception. However, it remains to be seen if he can command an elite target share (>25%) and be a true WR1 in Pittsburgh. His 2023 Reception Perception profile revealed Pickens is average against man coverage (50th percentile) and bad against zone (17th percentile). According to Harmon, one of his biggest issues is consistency.
Nobody doubts that Pickens is great at running deep routes and making contested catches on 50/50 balls, but he’s got a lot of work to do if he wants to become a great NFL wide receiver. If Smith couldn’t help a much more complete London become a viable fantasy WR2 in Atlanta, what makes you think he’s going to help Pickens crack the top 25 wide receivers? Not to mention Arthur Smith's offenses have been bottom eight in pass attempts in four of the last five seasons.
Oh, and there are still major questions at quarterback between Russell Wilson and Justin Fields? It's clearly an upgrade from Kenny Pickett and Mason Rudolph, but is it enough to move the needle for Pickens? It's fair to have doubts.
James Cook, Buffalo Bills
Cook finished as the RB18 on a per-game basis last season. He averaged 13.7 PPR fantasy points on a 62.4% opportunity share. That was exactly double his opportunity share as a rookie. However, his production and utilization ebbed and flowed from week to week. Cook had seven games with single-digit fantasy points, eight games between 10 and 19 fantasy points, and just two games over 20 fantasy points. In five games Cook found the end zone, he averaged 22.9 fantasy points per game, but in 12 games he didn’t, he averaged just 9.9 fantasy points per game. Quite a contrast!
Touchdowns can vary from season to season, but the Bills consistently went away from Cook whenever they got close to the goal line last season. They gave a 34-year-old Latavius Murray more than double the number of carries inside the five-yard line (11) than they gave Cook (4).
Standouts from day 2 (not in any order)
Curtis Samuel - reps at RB, catches downfield on a deep over and a seam ball, and success underneath. Speed, athleticism, versatility, and feel for space all on display
Keon Coleman - slot work + outside work, and a good feel for…
— Anthony Cover 1 (@Pro__Ant) July 25, 2024
As you can see from his production last season, Cook wasn’t giving fantasy managers enough on the games that he didn’t find the end zone. That’s because Cook only saw 54 targets in the passing game. His route participation rate of 45.9% leaves a lot to be desired for a guy who isn’t scoring touchdowns. Take Alvin Kamara for example. He only scored six touchdowns last season but was propped up by his 86 targets in 13 games and went on to finish as the RB3 in PPR leagues. Unless Cook becomes much more involved in the passing game and around the goal line, his upside is capped.
And it doesn’t seem like that’s going to happen in 2024 as the Bills drafted Ray Davis and are seemingly comfortable with new-addition Curtis Samuel out of the backfield as well. That makes sense given Samuel did so well in that Swiss army knife role he played under Joe Brady in Carolina in 2020. Shoutout to Anthony for all the awesome training camp nuggets so far. Everything out of Buffalo suggests avoiding Cook in the early round of fantasy drafts this season.
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