Key Early-Round Fantasy Baseball Draft Targets - Expert Picks Using EDV (Expected Draft Values)

Opening Day approaches, but there are still several fantasy baseball drafts left to roll, which means we're back with another year of the FSWA-award-nominated Expected Draft Values (EDV) series, where we look at historical data to identify overvalued and undervalued players of all types. Map out your draft using this tool to target skill specializations such as power, speed, power+speed, batting average+power, and more.

We'll kick things off at the beginning of drafts and compare projected stat lines for early picks from my Cutter Projections against their ADP's expected return. Due to factors such as name recognition, last year's surface stats, your fantasy platform's default rank, or viral social posts, ADPs often fall short of perfect science. We'll now show you great spots to strike as we analyze top picks using Expected Draft Values.

In a nutshell, our goal is to identify players who will return a substantially positive value based on their aggregate ADP, their Expected Draft Value (i.e., the average stat line typically produced at that ADP), and their projection.

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How Expected Draft Values (EDV) Help You Win

Expected Draft Values (EDV) try to provide concrete answers to those who say, "Player X is a great value at that ADP."

We've taken historical data and come up with a metric that reliably shows stat lines along the ADP totem pole, with players falling into seven cohorts:

1) HR+BA+SB
2) HR+BA
3) SB+HR
4) SB+BA
5) HR
6) SB
7) BA

We know players don't fall neatly into one bucket of production, but we can read between the lines and apply the appropriate context. What does it take to be a worthwhile power-speed threat around pick 28? An average-speed asset near pick 40? EDV is not a definitive practice, just as projections are imperfect, but it'll sharpen your draft tools. And yes, runs and RBI returns are incorporated as well.

You can read more about EDV in this Intro To Expected Draft Values article, which was nominated for FSWA's Best Research Article award.

Summary of Top Early-Round EDV Targets

Key Early-Round EDV Players to Target

Shohei Ohtani (ADP: 1) – EDV Cohort & Score: BA+HR+SB, +43 - Let's assume a 12-team league and check out the first round when it comes to hitters. Last year's Fantasy MVP, Shohei Ohtani, remains the clear first-overall pick with the highest projection over the EDV margin.

He carries some risk in eventually returning to pitching and modifying his slide to protect the shoulder injured in last year's World Series, but this man is indeed the top dog.

Aaron Judge (ADP: 3) – EDV Cohort & Score: BA+HR, +18 - Judge eased doubts about 2023's toe injury by playing a career-high 158 games, clobbering 58 home runs with 122 runs, 144 RBI, and a .322 average. But believers had to hold through an ice-cold April first!

Losing Juan Soto hurts, but the Yanks did a good job re-tooling the lineup around him. He even went a perfect 10-for-10 on steal attempts and trimmed his strikeout rate by four percentage points to a career-low 24.3 percent.

Jose Ramirez (ADP: 4) – EDV Cohort & Score: HR+SB, +13 - It's difficult for any metric to look poorly on a true 40/40 threat such as J-Ram, who got robbed of his historical pursuit when a "meaningless" Game 162 was canceled due to poor weather last year. Talk about extra hunger for greatness in 2025!

"That's my motivation this year. I know it's not easy to achieve, but I'm going to keep working hard."@CleGuardians superstar José Ramírez talks about chasing 40/40 again this season and his commitment to greatness.

MLB Network + @TMobile | @LasMayores pic.twitter.com/Ef83NjCO3w

— MLB Network (@MLBNetwork) March 13, 2025

He's played in at least 93 percent of Cleveland's games in five consecutive years. We have him once again topping 200 R+RBI as the No. 2 hitter with Kyle Manzardo, Carlos Santana, and Lane Thomas behind him.

Elly De La Cruz (ADP: 6) – EDV Cohort & Score: HR+SB, +14 - Simply put, EDLC's blossoming power with lightning speed is so far beyond historical standards that worries over batting average can be absorbed. Even if you aren't as bullish on the 23-year-old's power increasing with experience and aging curves, his surroundings are solid.

Great American Ball Park remains elite for offense, yet the 2024 Reds had a bottom-five team batting average. Regression and health for guys like Matt McLain and Christian Encarnacion-Strand should help form a rising tide that lifts all boats.

Mookie Betts (ADP: 10) – EDV Cohort & Score: BA+HR+SB, +15 - Betts missed the Tokyo series due to illness and reportedly lost 10-to-15 pounds, but we won't get too wrapped up in that. His team context on the Dodgers gives him a high run-production floor, and we're unlikely to see a fluky fractured hand on a hit-by-pitch preceded by a month of horrid luck (.239 BABIP).

Francisco Lindor (ADP: 13) – EDV Cohort & Score: HR+SB, +16 - Lindor's comfort in New York grows by the year. His OPS has risen by an average of 35 points in each season for the Mets, with his barrel rate soaring from 8.3 percent in 2022 to 10.4 percent in 2023 and 13.6 percent last season.

It's no surprise that his Statcast page is painted red. His average projects far better with these trends in tow. And now he's joined by Juan Soto!

Trea Turner (ADP: 26) – EDV Cohort & Score: BA+HR+SB, +20 - Now 31 years old, the former top overall fantasy pick is coming off another strong year that was watered down by a hamstring injury. It was his first extended injury since 2019, so don't overreact.

He hit .295 with 88 runs, 62 RBI, 21 HRs, and 19 SBs in 121 games, pacing to another 25/25 year and a career-high mark in runs. But he's slid about 10 picks in ADP compared to the 2024 preseason, and we are here for the value.

Jazz Chisholm Jr. (ADP: 31) – EDV Cohort & Score: HR+SB, +24 - Chisholm is often dinged for his durability but just set a high mark with 147 games played and 621 plate appearances. Chisholm had 13 HR and 22 SB across 101 games for Miami before exploding in the Bronx. With a far better team and venue, Jazz socked 11 HRs with 18 SBs in just 46 games.

Charitably triple that for 138 games, a "full season" for injury-scared Chisholm doubters, and that's a 33/54 pace. His average also jumped 24 points (.306 BABIP for NYY, nothing outlandish), and he should also pick up 2B/3B/OF eligibility on most platforms. We project 30 HRs and 40 SBs for the prime pick who looks to have earned every green light on the basepaths.

Jazz Chisholm is the first Yankee to steal 3 bases in one World Series game

Yankees w/ 2+ SB in one WS game:

10/5/1921 Mike McNally (2)
10/6/1921 Babe Ruth (2)
10/27/1999 Derek Jeter (2)
11/1/2009 Johnny Damon (2)
10/25/2024 Jazz Chisholm, Jr (3)

— Erica Block (@EricaDaleBlock) October 26, 2024

Jackson Merrill (ADP: 36) – EDV Cohort & Score: BA+HR+SB, +19 - Debuting at 20 years old, Merrill took a couple of months to find his power stroke yet still hit .280 over his first 55 games. He'd hit .299 the rest of the way, slugging 21 HRs, 27 doubles, and five triples in the final 100 contests.

Merrill also showed a keen eye on the basepaths, going 16-for-19 on steal attempts. There's plenty of room for another level of pop on his 6-foot-3 frame, but the well-rounded fantasy skill set is a plus even without achieving another level.

Ozzie Albies (ADP: 47 ) – EDV Cohort & Score: HR+SB, +20 - Albies has suffered through several injuries since 2020, most of which were fluky, but he's been incredible when able to settle into a full season. In his four seasons with over 145 games played, Albies averages 28 HRs and 16 SBs, eclipsing 200 R+RBI in both 2021 and 2023.

Last year, several key Braves went down to injury, Albies included, but approaching those HR/SB averages makes him a value. CUTTER projects 26 HRs and 15 SBs with a .264 average.

Wyatt Langford (ADP: 48) – EDV Cohort & Score: HR+SB, +21 - Langford's elite prospect shine was wearing through a tough rookie campaign before a torrid September (.300 AVG, 8 HRs, 7 SBs) justified the prestige. He enters his age-23 season with valuable experience and proof of high-level MLB play, bumping his CUTTER projections to 26 HRs and 22 SBs.

He edges this pick slot's EDV scores in all five traditional fantasy categories. The Rangers should experience team-wide positive regression after an abysmal '24, and Langford could pop in the process.

Oneil Cruz (ADP: 50) – EDV Cohort & Score: HR+SB, +24 - Playing in his first full season, Cruz showed slight plate-discipline improvements while showcasing the high-end power and speed tools. His bat speed trailed only Giancarlo Stanton and led to ridiculous moonshots, but he also saw his Meatball Swing rate climb by 15 points compared to 2022.

In other words, he punished mistakes in the zone at a far higher clip. He was caught stealing just once on 23 attempts and could push for more with a season's worth of conditioning under his sizeable frame. He already has six steals in 12 spring games! One must remember that last year, he also had to adjust to the outfield. EDV only asks for 42 HR+SB at this price point, and CUTTER projects nearly 60.

Only 4 players under the age of 26 had over a 50% hard hit rate in 2024:

Juan Soto
Vladimir Guerrero Jr.
Gunnar Henderson
Oneil Cruz

I think we are going to see an MVP caliber season from Oneil Cruz this year!
pic.twitter.com/WIbthOWjPX

— Andrew DeCeglie (@Andrew_FBB) March 7, 2025

Teoscar Hernandez (ADP: 55) – EDV Cohort & Score: HR+SB, +36 - Hernandez was a great click last year and the value remains in 2025 drafts. Available in most fifth rounds, Hernandez would only need 40 HR+SB while batting .250 and 160 R+RBI to meet value.

Last year, he collected 33 HRs and 12 SBs with 183 R+RBI and a .272/.339/.501 triple slash. Even the most conservative projections paint him as a solid pick per EDV. We've come a long way from his bat being stuck in Seattle's difficult park!

Michael Harris II (ADP: 57) – EDV Cohort & Score: BA+HR+SB, +29 - Another Brave, Harris has shown exciting stretches but dealt with an early back injury in '23 and a severe left hamstring strain cost him two months last year. Still only 24, he went off with eight homers and a .316 average in September after regaining timing following the 60-day IL stint.

His final 100 games after 2023's back injury yielded a .335 AVG with 16 HRs and 15 SBs. High batting averages have become more scarce, so CUTTER's .280 average and 50 HR+SB are stellar here. Money Mike is one of the latest picks to qualify for the rare BA+HR+SB triple cohort.

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