Early-Round Fantasy Baseball Busts? Potential Landmines for Drafts (2025)

There's a popular saying in fantasy sports: "You can't win your league with the early draft picks, but you can lose it." To help ensure you're not a victim of that theory, we're going to look at a trio of players being taken in the early rounds who have the potential to hurt your teams.

That isn't to say these players are bad in any way. Nor am I saying they shouldn't be drafted. But they are going earlier than they probably should in drafts, and they will need plenty of things to go right if they are to provide value on their current ADP (average draft position).

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Willy Adames, SS, San Francisco Giants

Drafting a player coming off a career year doesn't generally end well for fantasy managers. Factor in the player has moved to a new team in a new division, and regression is almost inevitable. That's especially true if you place stock in players performing better in their final year before free agency.

All of those ingredients are mixed into the pot here. The result is Adames having an ADP of ~64. That's not too gaudy, given the numbers he's put up. It will take a fifth- or sixth-round pick in most leagues to draft Adames, which still feels too early.

If Adames remained in Milwaukee or went to a team with a better ballpark, his ADP would look justified. Why aren't the Giants a good fit for Adames? Well, two main issues will hamper his fantasy value in 2025. The first we'll look at is the ballpark.

According to Statcast, Milwaukee's American Family Field is the sixth-best ballpark for home runs for right-handed hitters. San Francisco's Oracle Park is the third worst. We can see from Adames' 2024 spray chart that he isn't just a pull hitter. But overall, the move to San Francisco is a downgrade.

The second notable downgrade is the expected drop in stolen bases. Adames stole a career-high 21 bases in 2024 after totaling 30 steals in 719 MLB games before last year. What made that more remarkable was his 27.4 ft/sec sprint speed (50th percentile), which was the lowest of his career.

Even if you believe Adames can steal 20+ bases again, he likely won't get the chance to. Only the Nationals (223) had more stolen bases than the Brewers (217). The Giants' 68 stolen bases in 2024 were the second fewest. The Giants won't give Adames the opportunities to run like he had in 2024.

There's no denying Adames had an excellent 2024. The likelihood of that being repeated is slim. Early projections have Adames hitting ~25 HR and 80-90 RBI and runs. They sound about right. They also have Adames getting 14 steals, which seems more hopeful than probable.

If Adames has 25 HR, 85 RBI, 85 runs, eight steals, and a .245 batting average, he'd have another productive year. As a career .248 hitter, unless Adames can somehow reach 20 stolen bases or reach the 30-home-run mark again, it's difficult to see how he can provide value on his ADP.

Adley Rutschman, C, Baltimore Orioles

There is no doubting Adley Rutschman's talents. Behind the dish and at the plate, the Orioles catcher is excellent. However, if you're using a sixth-round pick on a catcher, they had better put up big numbers. As good as Rutschman is, those numbers just don't seem likely.

At present, Rutschman has an ADP of ~63 in NFBC drafts. They are two-catcher formats, but that translates to other sites and formats, too. Last year, Rutschman's NFBC ADP was 46. In Fantrax and Yahoo! leagues, Rutschman's ADP ranged between 41-44.

Based on that, it's fair to believe Rutschman will be taken around the 60th pick in most one-catcher leagues. While productive catchers are at a premium, Rutschman's ADP seems even more inflated than others at the position. Let's look at some comparisons.

Currently, seven catchers are being taken within the first 100 picks on average in NFBC drafts. Below are each of their numbers from the 2024 season.

As we can see, Rutschman's numbers don't warrant taking him as early as he's going. We can't even say last year was a down season for Rutschman as his numbers weren't too dissimilar to 2023 or his rookie season in 2022.

The one thing Rutschman has going for him is hitting in a potent lineup. He spent most of last season hitting in the No. 2 and No. 5 spots. Rutschman will likely continue in that vein and hit in the heart of the Orioles lineup.

But he's only averaged 79.5 RBI and 76 runs over the last two seasons while doing so. The Orioles altering the left-field dimensions again will help Rutschman's numbers. But as a switch-hitter, the impact won't be as significant.

It's not feasible to expect Rutschman to suddenly tally 100 RBI or runs with ~80 more likely. His career batting average in the majors is .261, and Rutschman has only tallied two steals since 2023. He's not going to hurt your numbers in any way. But he's not a significant contributor in any of them, either.

When we also consider some hitters going immediately behind Rutschman, his ADP seems even more lofty than it should be. Marcell Ozuna, Kyle Schwarber, and Brent Rooker are all going between five and eight picks after Rutschman. They each hit 38-39 homers with 100+ RBI last year.

The trio are only eligible as designated hitters, which plays a role in roster construction. But I want the best hitters and pitchers available in the early rounds. Take Rutschman over those three, knowing you're missing out on ~18 homers. ~20-40 RBI and a handful of steals is a hefty price for catcher eligibility.

The only way Rutschman will end the year as a top-3 catcher is if he produces something we've yet to see. While possible, you're paying a "catcher premium" and could easily wait two to three rounds and take a different catcher who will provide similar numbers.

Jazz Chisholm Jr., 3B/OF, New York Yankees

The trade to the Yankees last year undoubtedly boosted Jazz Chisholm Jr.'s fantasy value. With an early ADP of ~25, as things currently stand, you must use a late-second-round or early third-round pick to draft him. Given Chisholm's numbers last year, that may seem like it's excellent value.

In 147 games, Chisholm had 24 home runs, 73 RBI, 74 runs, 40 steals, and a .256/.324/.436 slash line. All five of the fantasy categories were career highs. While the move to the Bronx helped, the career highs were largely down to Chisholm playing a career-high number of games.

Chisholm played a total of 281 games in the three seasons before 2024. He's had eight different stints on the injured list (IL) in the last four years, resulting in him averaging 107 games per season since 2021.

To provide value at his ADP, Chisholm not only has to stay healthy but also has to produce numbers similar to last year. The short porch at Yankee Stadium will help Chisholm hit homers. But he predominantly hit in the bottom half of the lineup, which will suppress his RBI and run totals.

While Chisholm's expected stats weren't too dissimilar to his actual numbers, they do still suggest some regression moving forward.

A player's Statcast profile isn't the be-all and end-all. That being said, Chisholm's isn't one you would associate with a 24-homer season and a .256 batting average. Even then, you should still expect a 20/20 season, at least with 30+ steals possible over a full season.

And it's that last part where Chisholm is potentially a bust. He's only played more than 100 games in a season twice in the previous four years. Relying on someone to play ~140 games when they have only achieved that once in their career is setting yourself up for disappointment.

Too many things need to go right for Chisholm to provide value on his current ADP. If everything goes right, he could return first-round value. However, Chisholm is almost guaranteed an IL stint or two. Missing a few weeks will almost certainly make fantasy managers rue drafting him this early.

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