X
Lost password?

Don't have an account?
Gain Access Now

X

Receive free daily analysis

NFL
NBA
NHL
NASCAR
CFB
MLB
MMA
PGA
ESPORTS
BETTING

Already have an account? Log In

X

Forgot Password


POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Player Comparisons
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

Early-Round Fades and Overvalued Studs

keston hiura fantasy baseball rankings draft sleepers

Entering 2021, there is a bit of recency bias in the early ADP as well as an overall sense of unknown entering 2021 as a whole in terms of what rules are in place, where players are going to hit in the lineup or even where many players will play and how that could affect other players in the process.

With that said, drafts are already taking place. There is a lot of data to take in and player analysis to go with it. Today we are diving into players to avoid at their current ADP.

The early ADP being referenced is taken from NFBC drafts as of 12-14-20. 

Be sure to check all of our fantasy baseball lineup tools and weekly lineup resources:

 

DJ LeMahieu, New York Yankees

ADP: 28.21

This strongly hinges on where he signs. We know how great Yankee Stadium has been to DJ LeMahieu but if he leaves, we could see a sizable decline in power as well as counting stats due to the likely lineup he ends up in won’t be as good as the Yankees lineup. How big of a potential impact can leaving Yankee Stadium have on his power? Well, check this out.

Not to mention, prior to joining the Yankees, LeMahieu spent seven years in Colorado. This is one of the best hitters parks and his career-high home run mark was just 15 during this span. The hit tool is fantastic, but with a swing that caters to New York like no other ballpark, we can expect to see a decline across the board if he leaves.

Without his staying in New York being assured as of now, taking LeMahieu at this ADP is an unnecessary risk. Especially considering safe options like Corey Seager and Ozzie Albies are also available at this point, both of which should get preference at this time. 

 

Vladimir Gurrero Jr., Toronto Blue Jays

ADP: 58.70

How have we now had two straight seasons of disappointment in terms of production vs. expectations and yet we cannot seem to get any discount of the draft cost of a player? The cost continues to baffle me. Vladimir Gurrero Jr. has both the prospect pedigree and the minor league production. However, he has yet to put it together at the MLB level.

Entering his age-22 season, there is little reason to be concerned about the long-term outlook. Being vaulted onto this stage at his age, given his father's DNA, did not help matters and anything short of greatness was going to be disappointing. To expect such lofty numbers from someone so young who never played in the MLB is just not fair. Yes, we have seen it recently with Acuna, Soto and Tatis, among others, but it is unfair to assume all prospects will come out the gates swinging. Not all prospect growth is linear (as Paul Sporer has said many times on Sleeper and the Bust). 

At just 21 years old, Vlad has played 183 games. Unfortunately, he has not lived up to expectations with only 24 home runs, a .269 batting average and a .778 OPS to show for it. We know the numbers should come. One thing you should not doubt is the power. Among qualified hitters, Vlad had the fifth hardest-hit ball in 2020. We have come to learn that max exit velocity is a great indicator of power potential. Makes sense.

In 2020, Vladito posted career-best marks to date in average exit velocity (92.5 MPH - 93rd percentile) and hard hit rate (50.8% - 93rd percentile).  It comes with roughly a league-average walk rate but elite strikeout numbers which suggests that the plus hit tool is still playing well to MLB pitching but the production has yet to follow. He has crushed fastballs but in 2019 it was breaking balls that gave him a hard time; in 2020, he seemed to have adapted to breaking pitches but offspeed pitches were the issue. Pitchers took notice as they altered their approach by increasing offspeed usage against him from 10.6% in 2019 to 14.9% in 2020. With his hit tool, I have zero doubt he will figure this out. 

The biggest issue for his struggles are the ground balls. In 2019, he posted a 50.4% ground ball rate and in 2020 he followed that up with a 54.6% ground ball rate. With his size and lack of speed, that type of ground ball rate will be a huge hindrance to his production and the power won’t be able to play as well either as he continues to crush the ball into the ground. Oddly enough, he has struggled a bit against LHP to this point in his career, only hitting .218/.303/.415 with a .306 wOBA and a 91 wRC+. There is reason for optimism as his plate discipline against LHP is fantastic. He has a walk rate of 10.9% and a strikeout rate of 16.6% and the BABIP is a lowly .222.

I expect better moving forward, but worth noting and monitoring. The positive news so far this offseason is that Vladimir Guerrero Jr. has reportedly lost 32 pounds since the start of the offseason. That is a step in the right direction. I am not ready to give up on him for the long term by any means, but to expect the sudden huge breakout in 2021 doesn’t seem fair or likely at this point. I do expect better but I wouldn’t bet on it being enough to justify the current ADP for 2021.

 

Dinelson Lamet, San Diego Padres

ADP: 68.34

There is no denying Dinelson Lamet more than came through for his team and fantasy managers alike in 2020. It is hard to find any flaw in his production, so why am I fading Lamet? It is simple. Health. He has already had Tommy John surgery in the past and he ended the 2020 season with a biceps issue in his throwing arm. People may say it happened in 2020 so he should be fine. That’s what everyone thought of Chris Sale entering 2020 as well. Not to mention, reports also stated Mike Clevinger wouldn’t need surgery either and we now know he is out for 2021 after getting Tommy John surgery. If this biceps injury was not that bad, then Lamet wouldn’t have missed the playoffs. He couldn’t even get cleared to throw off the mound. 

This is a pitcher who relies on his dominant, overpowering stuff and with ongoing arm issues, I cannot draft him with any confidence at his current price. Not only does he need his dominant stuff, but he threw his slider 53.4% of the time in 2020. That seems unsustainable over a full season as a starter. We often see relief pitchers able sustain such a pace with their offspeed offerings, but I cannot recall a starter with this type of pitch mix pitching 150 plus innings with it. This leads me to believe he would need to alter his approach to help him meet the innings.

Doing so could result in Lamet leaning on the fastball more and although the fastball improved in 2020, there’s a good chance it played up due to the effectiveness of the slider. We know Lamet can be dominant when healthy, but there is enough of a track record to question the health over a full season and paired with a likelihood of a step backward, I want no part of Lamet at the going rate. 

 

Keston Hiura, Milwaukee Brewers

ADP: 66.70

Keston Hiura is a player to root for but coming off a 2019 season where he overperformed and a 2020 where pitchers seem to have figured him out a bit, there are real questions as to what we should expect in 2021. He has struggled with strikeouts mightily since his call up. He has yet to strikeout less than 30% of the time as a Major Leaguer.

In 2021, among qualified hitters, Hiura had the:

  • Second worst SwStr% in baseball: 20.4%
  • The 7th worst O-Contact%: 47.1%
  • The worst Z-Contact%: 67.9%
  • The worst overall Contact% in baseball: 59.3%

This is a pairing you never want to see. He also struggled against balls up in the zone in a big way.

In 2019, the issues were not as bad up in the zone, but there were some warning signs in terms of potential struggles. It appears teams took note and attacked. Hiura also faced less fastballs as a whole while seeing more offspeed and breaking pitches. This is showing us that pitchers adapted.

Lastly, there are concerns with the stolen base production. We can deal with batting average issues if we are getting the plus power and plus speed but the stolen base success rate has been bad. Other than 2019 (76%), Hiura has never posted a success rate above 60% at any level in the majors or minors. Although the Brewers are known to run, how can we bank on the green light remaining lit if he continues to run into outs?

Long-term, I have very few concerns but for 2021, I need to see Hiura adapt to the way pitchers changed their approach to him and show he can hit pitches high in the zone better while lowering his strikeout rate. 



Download Our Free News & Alerts Mobile App

Like what you see? Download our updated fantasy baseball app for iPhone and Android with 24x7 player news, injury alerts, sleepers, prospects & more. All free!



More 2021 Fantasy Baseball Advice




POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Player Comparisons
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

Volkan Oezdemir56 mins ago

Drops Decision At UFC Macau
MMA58 mins ago

Carlos Uberg Extends Win Streak At UFC Macau
MMA1 hour ago

Cong Wang Gets Submitted In Upset Fashion At UFC Macau
Gabriella Fernandes1 hour ago

Pulls Off Massive Upset At UFC Macau
Deiveson Figueiredo1 hour ago

Falls Short At UFC Macau
Petr Yan1 hour ago

Gets Dominant Win At UFC Macau
Ladd McConkey3 hours ago

Tagged As Questionable For Week 12
Wendell Carter Jr.3 hours ago

Still Out Versus Detroit
Victor Wembanyama3 hours ago

Upgraded To Probable
Ausar Thompson3 hours ago

To Play On Saturday Night
Kirill Kaprizov5 hours ago

Ruled Out For Saturday
Auston Matthews5 hours ago

May Return To Maple Leafs Lineup Next Week
Max Domi5 hours ago

To Remain Out On Sunday
Jakub Vrana5 hours ago

Sits As Healthy Scratch Saturday
Alex Pietrangelo5 hours ago

Remains Out Saturday
William Eklund6 hours ago

A Game-Time Call For Saturday
Kasperi Kapanen6 hours ago

Moves To First Line Saturday
Darnell Nurse6 hours ago

Expected To Return On Saturday
Aaron Rodgers9 hours ago

Could Be Placed On IR Or Benched
Jordan Eberle12 hours ago

To Miss At Least Three Months
Matthew Knies12 hours ago

Placed On Injured Reserve
Owen Power12 hours ago

Tallies Two Helpers On Friday
John Gibson12 hours ago

Busy In Overtime Loss
Connor Hellebuyck13 hours ago

Sharp in Friday's Victory
Kyle Connor13 hours ago

Tallies Two Points In Friday's Victory
Noah Fant20 hours ago

Questionable For Week 12, Update Coming On Saturday
Brock Purdy22 hours ago

Week 13 Status Uncertain
23 hours ago

Nationals Non-Tender Kyle Finnegan On Friday
23 hours ago

Rays Non-Tender Dylan Carlson
23 hours ago

Rockies Non-Tender Brendan Rodgers, Cal Quantrill
Mike Yastrzemski23 hours ago

Avoids Arbitration With Giants
23 hours ago

Blue Jays Non-Tender Closer Jordan Romano
Dustin May24 hours ago

Dodgers Sign Dustin May To One-Year Deal To Avoid Arbitration
Walker Kessler24 hours ago

Might Return To Action Saturday
Kyle Filipowski24 hours ago

To Miss Saturday's Game
Jordan Clarkson24 hours ago

Considered Questionable For Saturday
Miles McBride24 hours ago

Questionable To Face Jazz
Joel Embiid1 day ago

To Remain Out On Sunday
Nikola Jokic1 day ago

Returns To Action Friday
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope1 day ago

No Longer On Injury Report
Wendell Carter Jr.1 day ago

Considered Questionable For Saturday
Brady Singer1 day ago

Shipped To Cincinnati
Jonathan India1 day ago

Traded To Kansas City
Tre Mann1 day ago

Listed As Out For Saturday
Torrey Craig1 day ago

Available Versus Hawks
Nick Richards1 day ago

Ruled Out For Saturday
Jarace Walker1 day ago

Ready To Face Bucks
Ben Sheppard1 day ago

Misses A Third Consecutive Game
Anfernee Simons1 day ago

Returns To Action Friday
Ja Morant1 day ago

Considered Doubtful For Saturday
Jerami Grant1 day ago

Ready For Action Friday
Marcus Smart1 day ago

Questionable For Saturday
Deandre Ayton1 day ago

Remains Out On Friday
Rashod Bateman1 day ago

Added To Week 12 Injury Report
Vince Dunn1 day ago

Could Be An Option For Kraken Next Week
TOR1 day ago

Alexander Nylander Joins Maple Leafs On One-Year Deal
George Kittle1 day ago

Cleared For Week 12
Jason Dickinson1 day ago

Expected To Play On Saturday
Cam York1 day ago

Expected To Return Saturday
San Francisco 49ers1 day ago

Nick Bosa Won't Play Against Packers
Mason McTavish1 day ago

Remains Out On Friday
Brock Purdy1 day ago

Ruled Out For Week 12
Tage Thompson1 day ago

Continues To Sit On Friday
Kevin Hayes1 day ago

A Game-Time Call Friday
Ladd McConkey1 day ago

Returns To Practice On Friday
CeeDee Lamb1 day ago

Cleared To Play In Week 12
Sam LaPorta1 day ago

Off The Injury Report, Cleared For Week 12
Jake Ferguson1 day ago

Ruled Out With Concussion
DeVonta Smith1 day ago

Ruled Out For Week 12
Brock Purdy1 day ago

Not Seen At Friday's Practice
T.J. Hockenson1 day ago

Expects To Be More Involved In Week 12
Alexander Mattison1 day ago

Zamir White Doubtful To Face Broncos
Nico Collins1 day ago

Set For Increased Workload Against Titans
Mike Evans1 day ago

Officially Listed As Questionable
Malik Nabers1 day ago

Questionable For Week 12, Intends To Play
Sam Darnold1 day ago

Cleared For Sunday
D'Andre Swift1 day ago

Gets Questionable Tag For Week 12
Shohei Ohtani1 day ago

In Early Stages Of Recovery From Shoulder Surgery
Tabatha Ricci1 day ago

Looks To Extend Her Win Streak
Yan Xiaonan1 day ago

Looks To Get Back In The Win Column
Muslim Salikhov1 day ago

A Favorite At UFC Macau
Chris Sale1 day ago

To Have Normal Offseason
Garrett Crochet1 day ago

Drawing Plenty Of Interest
Song Kenan1 day ago

Looks To Win Back-To-Back Fights
Zhang Mingyang1 day ago

Set For His Second UFC Fight
Ozzy Diaz1 day ago

An Underdog At UFC Macau
Carlos Ulberg2 days ago

Looking To Cement Himself As A Title Contender At UFC Macau
Volkan Oezdemir2 days ago

Eyes Another Knockout At UFC Macau
Gabriella Fernandes2 days ago

A Big Underdog At UFC Macau
MMA2 days ago

Cong Wang Puts Undefeated Record On The Line At UFC Macau
Deiveson Figueiredo2 days ago

Looks To Extend Win Streak At UFC Macau
Petr Yan2 days ago

A Favorite At UFC Macau
Shohei Ohtani2 days ago

Named National League MVP In 2024
Aaron Judge2 days ago

Wins American League MVP Award
Cody Bellinger2 days ago

Cubs Looking To Trade Cody Bellinger?
2 days ago

Blake Snell Has Met With Red Sox, Dodgers
Chris Sale3 days ago

Wins National League Cy Young Award
Tarik Skubal3 days ago

Wins 2024 American League Cy Young Award
Austin Eckroat3 days ago

Heads To The RSM Classic After Win
Harris English3 days ago

Finding Form Heading To The RSM Classic
Ben Griffin3 days ago

Continues Playing Well Heading To The RSM Classic
Denny McCarthy3 days ago

Returns to The RSM Classic
Ludvig Aberg3 days ago

Looks To Defend RSM Classic Title
Si Woo Kim3 days ago

An Intriguing Option At RSM Classic
Maverick McNealy3 days ago

In Solid Form Ahead Of RSM Classic
Eric Cole3 days ago

Chasing First Tour Victory At RSM Classic
4 days ago

Guardians' Stephen Vogt Named AL Manager Of The Year
Milwaukee Brewers4 days ago

Pat Murphy Named NL Manager Of The Year
4 days ago

Nick Pivetta Declines Boston's Qualifying Offer
Jose Siri4 days ago

Mets Acquire Jose Siri From The Rays
Charles Oliveira5 days ago

Gets Back In The Win Column
Michael Chandler5 days ago

Gets Dominated At UFC 309
Karine Silva5 days ago

Suffers Her First UFC Loss

RANKINGS

QB
RB
WR
TE
K
DEF
RANKINGS
C
1B
2B
3B
SS
OF
SP
RP

MORE RECENT ARTICLES

 
Bucky Irving - Fantasy Football Rankings, Draft Sleepers, NFL Injury News

Key Starters and Tough Calls - Week 12 Lineup Spotlights for Fantasy Football Include Bucky Irving, Jaxon Smith-Njigba, DeVaughn Vele And More

Scott Engel’s Lineup Spotlights on RotoBaller.com feature key players to consider starting every week during the 2024 fantasy football season. “The King” highlights preferred starting options when you are dealing with challenging lineup decisions. The players included in this rundown are based on Scott’s Premium Weekly Lineup Rankings, available in the RotoBaller NFL Premium Pass. Enter the […]


DK Metcalf - Fantasy Football Rankings, NFL Injury News, DFS and Betting Picks

Wide Receiver Matchups to Target in Week 12 - DK Metcalf, Courtland Sutton, Jauan Jennings, Noah Brown, Nick Westbrook-Ikhine

Week 12 is here, and with it, another edition of WR Matchups to Target. Last week was one of our most successful of the season, with two home run DFS picks (3x multiplier on DraftKings salary) in Jauan Jennings and Marquez Valdes-Scantling to go along with two additional hits (2x multiplier). Week 12 brings a […]


Matthew Stafford - Fantasy Football Rankings, NFL Injury News, DFS Lineup Picks

Fantasy Football Landmines to Avoid for Week 12 - Matthew Stafford, D'Andre Swift, Mark Andrews, and more

Week 12 in the fantasy football season is a critical juncture. With six teams on bye, options are slim, and managers must make savvy lineup decisions as the playoffs loom.  One misstep—a "landmine" starter who underperforms—could cost you a victory and potentially a playoff berth. This week, we spotlight five players who may look tempting […]


Devaughn Vele - Fantasy Football Rankings, Draft Sleepers, NFL Injury News

High-Upside Bench Stashes: Weekend Waiver Wire Adds for Week 12 Includes Blake Corum, Trey Benson, Keaton Mitchell, Jaylen Wright, Devaughn Vele, Theo Johnson, and more

Mastering the waiver wire is a crucial skill that can lead you to a fantasy football championship. It's not just about strategically placing your FAAB budget on specific players but also about knowing when to stash players. This dual strategy keeps you engaged and focused on your ultimate goal of winning a fantasy championship. As […]


Kareem Hunt - Fantasy Football Rankings, Waiver Wire Pickups, NFL Injury News

2024 Fantasy Football Rankings (Weekly Rankings)

Check out all of RotoBaller's fantasy football rankings. Staff rankings are updated regularly for all positions and include standard formats, PPR scoring, tiered rankings and dynasty leagues.


Tampa Bay Bucs Defense D/ST Streamers, Rankings, Waiver Wire - Vita Vea Fantasy Football IDP

Week 12 Team Defense Rankings for Fantasy Football: D/ST Updates for Buccaneers D/ST, Chiefs D/ST, Commanders D/ST, Vikings D/ST, Lions D/ST

If you've struggled to get strong production out of your D/ST and need a few wins to qualify for the fantasy football playoffs, you have come to the right place. Our NFL team's Week 12 fantasy football defense (D/ST) rankings are here to guide you in setting the best optimal lineup. The Broncos, Chiefs, and Vikings […]


C.J. Stroud - Fantasy Football Rankings, Draft Sleepers, Waiver Wire Pickups

Week 12 Superflex 2QB Rankings for Fantasy Football: Updates for C.J. Stroud, Justin Herbert, Kyler Murray, Matthew Stafford, Baker Mayfield

With bye weeks and injuries being major factors this week, Superflex fantasy managers will need to dive deeper into the rankings to find the top available options. Our Week 12 fantasy football Superflex rankings (2QB) for 2024 are here to help you navigate close start-or-sit calls and take home a "W" in an important week […]


Courtland Sutton - Fantasy Football Rankings, Draft Sleepers, NFL Injury News

Week 12 PPR Rankings for Fantasy Football: Overall Updates Include Courtland Sutton, Rome Odunze, DJ Moore, Austin Ekeler, Tony Pollard, DeAndre Hopkins

Welcome back to another weekend edition of RotoBaller's overall fantasy football rankings. It's a must-win week for many fantasy managers, so it's time to lock in. Below, you'll see our NFL team's updated Week 12 fantasy football PPR rankings for 2024. Let's see where key players like Deebo Samuel Sr., Jameson Williams, Austin Ekeler, Jaylen […]


Rico Dowdle - Fantasy Football Rankings, Draft Sleepers, Waiver Wire Pickups

Week 12 FLEX Rankings for Fantasy Football (RB, WR, TE) - Updates Include Jameson Williams, Jayden Reed, Jakobi Meyers, Rico Dowdle, Christian Watson

The 12th slate of the NFL season featured many players out of action via bye week or injury. That said, fantasy managers will need to dig deep into this week's rankings to find the top available FLEX consideration. We're here to help with our NFL team's updated Week 12 fantasy football FLEX rankings for 2024. […]


Chuba Hubbard - Fantasy Football Rankings, Draft Sleepers, Waiver Wire Pickups

Week 12 Running Back Rankings for Fantasy Football: RB Updates Include Bucky Irving, Kareem Hunt, Chuba Hubbard, J.K. Dobbins, Tyrone Tracy Jr.

Somehow, we're already onto the 12th week of the fantasy football season. Needless to say, time is running out to stack wins together, so let's get to crucial start-or-sit decisions with help from our updated Week 12 fantasy football running back rankings for 2024. Let's see where key players such as Jonathon Brooks, Chuba Hubbard, […]


Jauan Jennings - Fantasy Football Rankings, NFL Injury News, DFS Lineup Picks

Week 12 Wide Receiver Rankings for Fantasy Football: WR Updates Include Josh Downs, Quentin Johnston, Jauan Jennings, Calvin Ridley, Tank Dell

The wide receiver position is volitile, and WRs that aren't clear must-start studs are largley matchup dependent. If you need help with your start-or-sit calls ahead of the important Week 12 slate, we're here to assist with our NFL team's updated Week 12 fantasy football wide receiver rankings for 2024. Let's dig into the rankings […]


Anthony Richardson - Fantasy Football Rankings, Draft Sleepers, NFL News

Week 12 Quarterback Rankings for Fantasy Football: QB Updates Include Anthony Richardson, Bo Nix, Tua Tagovailoa, Geno Smith, Sam Darnold, Jared Goff

Early in the 2024 NFL season, quarterbacks struggled in fantasy football due to a regression in passing productions. However, many are picking up steam in the second half of the year. Still, start-or-sit decisions remain difficult when comparing two similar QBs. We're here to help with our updated Week 12 fantasy football quarterback rankings for […]


Will Dissly - Fantasy Football Rankings, Waiver Wire Pickups, NFL Injury News

Week 12 Tight End Rankings for Fantasy Football: TE Updates Include Will Dissly, Cade Otton, Zach Ertz, Jonnu Smith, Sam LaPorta, TJ Hockenson, Cole Kmet

It's make-or-break time for many fantasy managers, as the fantasy football playoffs are quickly approaching. Tight ends are always the toughest offensive position to navigate, so if you need help setting optimal lineups, you can come to the right place. Below, you'll see our NFL team's updated Week 12 fantasy football tight end rankings for […]