Key Early-Round Draft Targets - Expert Fantasy Baseball Picks Using EDV

Spring Training is underway, which means we're back with another year of the FSWA-award-nominated Expected Draft Values (EDV) series, where we look at historical data to identify overvalued and undervalued players of all types. Whether you're targeting power, speed, power+speed, batting average+power, and so on, we've got you covered.

Let's start at the beginning with the top of the draft board and compare the projected statline of the stars we build around via my Cutter Projections against their ADP's expected return. Due to a variety of factors such as name recognition, your fantasy platform's default rank in the draft room, or social media buzz, ADPs can be swayed to poorly reflect the stats you're drafting. Stay tuned over the next couple of weeks as we investigate undervalued and overvalued players from all over using Expected Draft Values.

Generally, what we'll do in this series is identify players who will return a positive or negative value, based on their NFBC ADP in Draft Champions Contests spanning mid-February into March, their Expected Draft Value (i.e. the average stat line typically produced at that ADP), and their projection.

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How Expected Draft Values (EDV) Help You Win

Expected Draft Values (EDV) try to provide concrete answers to those who say, “Player X is a great value at that ADP.”

We've taken historical data and come up with a metric that reliably shows stat lines along the ADP totem pole, with players falling into seven cohorts:

1) HR+BA+SB
2) HR+BA
3) SB+HR
4) SB+BA
5) HR
6) SB
7) BA

We know players don't fall neatly into one bucket of production, but we can read between the lines and apply the appropriate context. What does it take to be a worthwhile power-heavy bat around pick 20? A power-speed threat near pick 40? EDV is not a definitive practice, just as projections are an imperfect science, but it'll sharpen your draft tools.

You can read more about EDV in this Intro To Expected Draft Values article, which was nominated for FSWA's Best Research Article award.

Key Early-Round EDV Players to Target

Before we begin, it’s important to remember that projections typically don’t capture a player’s ceiling or even their 80th-percentile outcome. Last season, Matt Olson led the league in home runs with 54 but my top projection for ‘24 is Aaron Judge at 51. ATC Projections top out at 44 for Judge, with The BAT X at 46. None of us have anyone hitting above .320 even though Luis Arraez just hit over .350 in ‘23.

3/3

Remember projections are not predictions. Its a betting average, not a distribution of what will actually happen.

Just because only 3 players are projected over .300 doesn't mean there won't be considerably more. ATC isn't assuming an actual season shape.

— Ariel Cohen (@ATCNY) March 8, 2024

So, if you’re underwhelmed by projections, especially for early-round players who we expect to post league-leading stats, just bake in how this approach works. Several early-round bats may not grade out particularly well in this exercise yet remain fine picks, especially knowing each team build is unique. If all early-rounders were poor EDV values then we’d have to re-write the metrics, but we still have plenty of guys who pop.

Let’s assume a 12-team league and check out the first round when it comes to hitters. Last year’s Fantasy MVP, Ronald Acuna Jr., remains the clear first-overall pick with the highest projection over the EDV margin. Injury risk is one thing, but no objective calculation or formula should ever tell you to pass on Ron at 1.01 (unless you’re in a worst-ball league!).

Bobby Witt Jr. kicks off the next tier as a plus buy, largely due to projecting for +16 above HR+SB expectations (76 vs. 60). We’ve adjusted the speed demands for today’s SB-happy world, but Witt being a 30/50 threat with a growing KC lineup around him is fantastic.

The middle of the first round brings subpar EDV scores before picking up again with Freddie Freeman (+12), Aaron Judge (+35), Juan Soto (+13), and Shohei Ohtani (+26). This has my draft pick favor trending toward the middle/back end of drafts.

Judge is green across the board, needing just 42 HR with roughly 200 R+RBI and a .263 average to “break even.” All major projection systems have him hitting .270 or greater with ~45-50 HRs and 210-225 R+RBI. We likely won’t see the ~20 SB attempts from 2022 come around again given his toe management, but speed is a nonfactor for his EDV given the pop.

"I'll pick my spots probably a little more frequently to get him off his feet with a DH day. As for the other days in center, I'm not worried about it."#Yankees manager Aaron Boone on how he'll handle Aaron Judge's lingering toe issues:@Yankees | #RepBX | #SpringTrainingTour pic.twitter.com/apbWZoKOQw

— MLB Network Radio on SiriusXM (@MLBNetworkRadio) March 6, 2024

Others with second-round ADPs and notable scores are Matt Olson (+29), Austin Riley (+11), and Rafael Devers (+18). Unless you think the Braves are due for teamwide regression on a major scale, Olson and Riley stand to soak up R+RBI opportunities with their well-rounded bats. I don’t love leaning on flukier counting stats as a pillar, but teams like ATL and LAD get exceptions.

Devers dealt with an odd April, where 10 HRs and 47 R+RBI (!) were offset by a horrendous .205 BABIP (.232 AVG). His overall .267 BABIP in the first half was well below his career mark of .315, which his second-half BABIP of .326 better reflected. Every major system has him hitting above .280, with the lesser R+RBI in Boston’s lineup pegging him below the likes of Riley. Still, Fenway Park remains a hitter’s haven.

Durability can be tough to quantify but Marcus Semien embodies it:

Marcus Semien, games played by season (since 2018):

'18 - 159
'19 - 162
'20 - 53 (60-game season)
'21 - 162
'22 - 161
'23 - 162 pic.twitter.com/dLauCUvn3F

— MLB Network (@MLBNetwork) February 16, 2024

His leadoff role and volume unlock his higher outcomes, especially with how well Texas filled out their order behind him. His 43 HR+SB, 222 R+RBI, and .276 AVG pulled many to fantasy titles, yet his ADP remains around 30. His power/speed is par with EDV, but he’s netting 25 R+RBI with a slight boost in AVG at that draft slot. Teammate Adolis Garcia (+12) is also a solid buy.

I’ve seen polarizing chatter about C.J. Abrams this offseason, but his upside remains worth it around pick 40. So many point to his bat tool, the 90 wRC+ and .167 ISO from last season, as a reason to avoid. But Abrams is a top prospect who cracked the majors at 21 years old after having his development stunted with no minor-league ball in 2020.

He may not win a Silver Slugger, but 11 HRs and a 99 wRC+ at 22 in 73 games after getting the leadoff role (with 36 SBs!) is solid. Why is this framed as his ceiling? Injuries and the pandemic curbed his early pro reps and 2024 could be a full bloom. Even with lesser R+RBI potential on Washington, he’ll blow past the 42 HR+SB EDV with his wheels alone. Anything close to 20/50 would warrant a second-round pick.

as @sandwich_pick noted, 47 SB is even more incredible when you consider Abrams had just 11 thru 78 games

after moving to the leadoff spot on July 7 thru the end of the season, Abrams swiped 36 bags -- #1 in MLB over that span (Acuña had 32; Carroll had 30) https://t.co/B5tu4tWqnz pic.twitter.com/u8F3VlHHaT

— Céspedes Family BBQ (@CespedesBBQ) January 31, 2024

The final highlight today is Oneil Cruz, who checks in around +23 on the scoreboard. Other than being level with EDV on batting average (.254 to .255), Pittsburgh’s star should easily eclipse the other marks. Even with strikeouts galore, he clubbed 17 HRs with 10 SBs in just 87 games as a rookie in 2022. His ‘23 campaign was cut short by a fractured ankle suffered in its ninth game.

He’d already gone 3-for-3 on swipe attempts (~50 SB rate, ha!) and had an early rate of seven walks to eight strikeouts. All we have are small samples, but he also has four walks to three strikeouts through March 6 this spring. Building on 2022’s .294 OBP will mean more chances to steal for us. You won’t find a rational stab at a 30/50 season this far down the board in most years!

Hoping to get a healthy season out of Oneil Cruz.

The BAT X projects to hit 8 hitters 24+ HR, 26+ SB:

Acuña
Witt
Julio
Tatis
Ramirez
Arozarena
Chisholm
Cruz 👀

You can get Cruz as late as RD7.

— Frank Ammirante (@FAmmiranteTFJ) March 3, 2024

Summary of Top Early-Round EDV Targets

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