Early FFPC ADP Insights and Analysis: Values on Veterans

Savvy fantasy football players and high stakes competitors are already getting their drafting reps in at the Fantasy Football Players Championship (FFPC site). When reviewing the early Average Draft Position reports in the Footballguys Players Championship FFPC leagues, which have been open since early May, there are some apparent trends to examine and comment on.

It is certainly clear that there are some good value selections available when you are drafting early. Also, it is important to put rookies into proper perspectives. Some are being overdrafted, while others may rise in value soon, but are looking like they may have not stirred enough buzz among fantasy players just yet. Do keep in mind when reviewing FFPC ADPs here, that tight ends are awarded 1.5 points for a reception.

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FFPC Early Look: Players To Keep An Eye On

Najee Harris (FFPC ADP of 24.54): End of the second round seems very fair. I don’t see Harris as a first rounder and apparently neither do many high-stakes players. There will obviously be a lot of potential volume, but any rookie can take some time to adjust to the pro level and cannot be immediately overrated based on talent and opportunity alone.

CeeDee Lamb (39.7): This is not too early for Lamb. The return of a healthy Dak Prescott can really lead to a second-year breakout.

Allen Robinson (41.4): I will take him every single time in this range. Robinson is a fantasy WR1 who had a career-high 102 receptions last season. The quarterback situation apparently looks like it can improve soon in Chicago, and even if it doesn’t, no one works more productively with shaky  quarterbacking than Robinson.

David Montgomery (41.5): The Bears are still not getting enough respect from early drafters. In the the final six weeks of the 2020 season, Montgomery scored and had over 100-plus yards from scrimmage in every game. He rushed for 95-plus yards four times. He may not catch 50 passes with Tarik Cohen back, but Montgomery is ready to emerge as a strong fantasy RB2 over a full season.

Chris Carson (46.7): He plays at a fantasy RB1 level quite often when healthy, and would be Top 12 at the position if he played 16 games frequently. With the Seahawks passing game set to be more consistent this season, Carson may face lighter boxes more often while also getting regular scoring opportunities. He is a very good value at this point as long as you build good depth behind him.

Javonte Williams (55.5): As indicated by Ryan O'Halloran, beat writer for the Denver Post on a recent RotoBaller on SiriusXMFantasy Sports Radio episode, Williams may quickly get out front as the new lead running back for the Broncos. I expect the ADP to quickly rise, so get him at the value spot now if you can.

Will rookie Javonte Williams be the #Broncos starting RB over Melvin Gordon in Week 1? @ryanohalloran made the case to @scotteTheKing & @MichaelFFlorio on @RotoBallerRadio! pic.twitter.com/awLo4CBrUc

— Fantasy Sports Radio (@SiriusXMFantasy) June 14, 2021

Robert Woods (58.2): Fantasy analyst Jacob Gibbs of SportsLine is a great read. In his recent column on air yardage and aDOT wide receivers to target, he says Woods models as the best possible downfield weapon for Matthew Stafford among his current pass-catchers. I agree and appreciate the deeper numerical dive he does, too.

Ja'Marr Chase (59.7): I realize the LSU connection between Chase and Joe Burrow, and that Chase was arguably the best WR in this year’s rookie class. But this is a bit too early for me to take a rookie wide receiver. Taking Chase here is looking for him to quickly become Cincinnati’s No. 1 WR producer, and while he may be the most talented wideout on the team, I expect the rise to stardom to happen more gradually.

Kenny Golladay (65.3): He led the NFL in TD receptions two seasons ago, even as Matthew Stafford missed half of the season. Golladay can produce at a fantasy WR1 when healthy, as he can make spectacular grabs all over the field.

Myles Gaskin (74.2): This is a really good discount right now for a versatile player who still appears ticketed to be the lead running back for the Dolphins.

DeVonta Smith (91.2): I will pass on him at this ADP. The talent and opportunity is obvious, but again, with a rookie, that isn’t always enough. Smith is clearly the best potential WR on the Eagles already, and it’s a lot to ask of a rookie to be his team’s No. 1 wideout right away.

Mike Davis (96.6): He is the clear starter for the Falcons and has always taken advantage of opportunities when presented with them in the past. This is Davis’ biggest chance yet, and the first real one to prove he can be a regular starter. Getting a possible fantasy RB2 here is a terrific value play, and even if the ADP rises to the sixth round range soon, he will still be a terrific target.

Trey Sermon (105.9): 49ers beat reporter Matt Barrows appeared on RotoBaller on SiriusXM Fantasy Sports Radio on Sunday night and told us that he expects Sermon to emerge as San Francisco’s RB1 during the season. So the ADP may vault up soon but he still will be a very good fantasy RB4 target. Unlike other rookies such as Harris, who is being overdrafted in some leagues so far, and Smith, who may be in a situation that overwhelms him, Javonte Williams and Sermon are coming at discounts, and even if their ADPs rise some, they will still be in reasonable drafting territory.

Matt thinks Trey Sermon will end up playing the most snaps among the 49ers RBs this season cause Mostert has struggled to stay healthy

He says by seasons end he could start half the games. Says the top back for Niners has often been productive

— Michael F. Florio (@MichaelFFlorio) June 20, 2021

Hunter Henry (109.5): I do not want him at all this season. Henry can be an injury risk, is overrated and now he gets a QB downgrade. Henry has averaged 4.3 TD catches per year in the last three seasons he was able to play regularly.

Zack Moss (114.6): The Bills should ideally like to establish more of a running game to make a great offense even more unpredictable and balanced. Moss never was able to get going as a rookie, but the door remains open for him to seize a role as the lead ball carrier and top Buffalo  RB to get TD chances near the goal line. There is some sleeper potential here.

DeVante Parker (142.6): This is one of my favorite early later values and Parker should be a really good bargain throughout the preseason. I expect a rebound year as Tua Tagovailoa improves and leans on Parker as a key target on important passing downs and in the end zone area. I am sure Ryan Fitzpatrick imparted to Tagovailoa how helpful Parker can be in such situations.

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