RADIO
With two weeks of the NFL preseason in the rearview mirror, it is time to start overreacting to some of the preseason performances and depth-chart trends. So much can happen at this time of year as players separate themselves and we discover surprises for fantasy football.
While we do not want to get too carried away, overreacting and making bold predictions can mean the difference between winning a fantasy championship and living in mediocrity.
Let's take a look at four preseason trends that may be worth overreacting to in a bold way for 2024.
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Jayden Daniels, QB, Washington Commanders
Overreaction: Jayden Daniels Will Finish No Lower Than QB5 In Fantasy
I recently wrote about Daniels as a top-5 option at quarterback in a bold predictions article. I am starting to believe that a top-5 finish for Daniels is less of a bold prediction and more of a legitimate projection.
For starters, Daniels has been excellent in limited action this preseason. He has completed 12-of-15 passes for 123 yards and he has three carries for 16 yards. Daniels has been efficient, poised, and accurate. He has also been as advertised with his legs in both scrambling and designed-run situations.
We all know what Daniels can do with his legs but it is the potential with his arm that is most exciting. Daniels is a pure passer. While the Commanders will certainly use his legs often (as they should), Daniels is a pass-first running quarterback.
Boosting my confidence in Daniels' passing acumen is his overall experience in college. Daniels played for five seasons and he started 55 games. Most rookie quarterbacks do not have nearly that amount of experience in college. However, that experience is going to help to curb the adjustment to the NFL.
Jayden Daniels reportedly looks ready to “blow RG3’s rookie season out of the water” according to many within the Commanders organization.
Daniels was just recently named QB1 and said “nothing has changed” in his mindset since the promotion.
Multiple NFL scouts reportedly… pic.twitter.com/zKqhjtIyXi
— NFL Rookie Watch (@NFLRookieWatxh) August 21, 2024
Defensive coordinators have yet to throw complicated blitz packages and coverage disguises at quarterbacks in the preseason. As such, it remains to be seen how well Daniels will fare when the training wheels come off.
Despite that, all reports suggest that Daniels' work ethic and leadership are unrivaled, suggesting that he will do everything in his power to ensure he is prepared on game day.
Fellow rookie quarterback Caleb Williams has been making constant highlight-reel plays this preseason but Daniels seems to be doing all the little things correctly. Daniels is not being drafted anywhere close to the top-5 quarterbacks and should be an automatic pick in the 9th-10th-round of fantasy drafts.
Bo Nix, QB, Denver Broncos
Overreaction: The Broncos Will Have A Top-Half Offense With Bo Nix
Bo Nix was recently announced as the Broncos' Week 1 starter at quarterback. This comes as no surprise with his only competition being Jarrett Stidham and Zach Wilson.
It's Bo Time.
HC Sean Payton has named Bo Nix our starting quarterback. pic.twitter.com/R80y6ziIcX
— Denver Broncos (@Broncos) August 21, 2024
Head coach Sean Payton wanted Nix throughout the draft process. Payton backed that up by selecting Nix with the 12th overall pick of the 2024 NFL Draft, which came as a shock to many.
Nix started a record 61 games in his college career between Oregon and Auburn. That kind of experience should allow him to transition easily to the NFL, especially in Payton's quarterback-friendly system. As such, the Broncos offense has a chance to be legitimately good in 2024.
Between Javonte Williams and Jaleel McLaughlin in the backfield, and Tim Patrick and Courtland Sutton on the outside, Nix has decent weapons to work with. However, an offense like Payton's that carves defenses up in the short game does not necessarily need alpha weapons to function at a high level.
It is no secret that Payton did not get along with former quarterback Russell Wilson. He only threw for 3,070 yards, but he did manage 26 touchdown passes to only eight interceptions. Wilson took too many sacks, but Nix's profile coming out of college was that of a player who thrives with a quick release in the short passing game.
The wide receivers on this team may not put up gaudy numbers. However, in a functional offense, the running backs will be the biggest beneficiaries. The Broncos backfield seems to be forgotten in drafts, so you can get a great discount on Williams and McLaughlin in the double-digit rounds.
Dontayvion Wicks, WR, Green Bay Packers
Overreaction: Dontayvion Wicks Will Lead The Packers Wide Receivers In Fantasy Points
The Packers wide receiving corps is the most difficult to predict in the NFL. Each of Jayden Reed, Christian Watson, Romeo Doubs, and Wicks could emerge as the No. 1.
Wicks is entering his second season in the NFL after having averaged 2.07 yards per route run in 2023, good for 24th in the league. Wicks finished 2023 with 39 receptions for 581 yards and four touchdowns. He made the most of his limited opportunities.
Wicks started slow but came on in the second half of the season. From Week 8 on, Wicks caught 31 passes on 40 targets for 469 yards and three touchdowns. Wicks was also solid in relief of an injured Watson over the final four games of the season with 207 receiving yards and three touchdowns.
Dontayvion Wicks is the Packers WR to own in fantasy football:🧵
- Profiles as the X
- Cheapest ADP of the 4
- Strong 1D/RR numbers
- 2.20 yards per route run
- 20% target rate as rookie
- Top 24 PFF grade as rookie
- 9th best PFF grade from Week 11+pic.twitter.com/TaOWtyURBH— Snoog’s Dynasty Society (@FFSnoog) August 17, 2024
The Packers have not exactly tipped their hand with the plan for their wide receivers. However, they seem to want to try to feature Watson and keep Reed in a gadget-type role. If Watson can stay healthy, then Wicks will likely be contending with Doubs for targets. However, the health of Watson is and has been a big "if" throughout his career.
Wicks is currently the fourth of the Packers wide receivers taken in fantasy drafts. He could realistically finish No. 1 in fantasy points or No. 4 among this core. Wicks' prototypical size and overall health give him the advantage over Reed and Watson. He has also flashed more talent than Doubs. Wicks is the perfect late-round flier in fantasy drafts to see how things shake out over the first couple of weeks.
Justin Fields, QB, Pittsburgh Steelers
Overreaction: Justin Fields Should Be The Starting Quarterback For The Steelers
Justin Fields has entered the next chapter of his career as a potential backup quarterback to Russell Wilson with the Steelers. Wilson was handed the starting job upon his signing with the team this spring. However, Fields has been given the chance to compete.
Wilson comes to Pittsburgh after two tumultuous seasons in Denver. With a solid O-line, decent weapons, and a great coaching staff in place, it seems as though Wilson should have been a shoo-in as the starter.
Things never seem to work out as they should in the NFL. Wilson dealt with a calf injury in training camp that gave Fields the chance to work with the starters for a couple of weeks. Wilson played in the Steelers' second preseason game against the Bills and could not get much going on offense.
To be fair, Fields has not exactly been lighting it up, either. The fumbling and sack issues that plagued Fields in Denver seem to be following him to Pittsburgh. Fields has flashed his extreme athleticism and big arm with the Steelers, but the consistency still is not there.
The quarterback situation in Pittsburgh seemed to be at least stabilized after the team acquired these two players, but the picture still appears to be murky. Even so, Fields gives this team incredible upside. With an excellent defense in place, the Steelers just need the offense to be efficient and mistake-averse.
The Steelers have indicated with their investment in the O-line and the hiring of offensive coordinator Arthur Smith that they would like to run the football. Say what you will about Fields' passing acumen, but the Bears had a great run game because of his dual-threat ability. With proper coaching, Fields could also continue to ascend as a passer with an alpha wide receiver in George Pickens on the roster.
Wilson presents the Steelers with the safe play, but the Steelers are competing in a high-T division and conference. Their defense is not going to be able to keep every game close and they cannot keep winning close games at an unsustainably high rate (9-2 in close games in 2023).
Fields gives the offense an element of explosion that Wilson has not given an offense in several years. If Wilson had gone out and lit up preseason and training camp, then this would be a different story. But the fact that the door is still cracked for Fields suggests that perhaps he should just have the job.
But he’s a “bum”
This was one of the most impressive plays we saw around the entire league today but bc it’s Justin Fields it’s no big deal 😴 pic.twitter.com/5LhkfDUStN
— Kurt Benkert (@KurtBenkert) August 18, 2024
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