Early Fantasy Football ADP Analysis - Values and Avoids

When preparing for your fantasy football draft, it’s always a good starting point to see where players are being selected in drafts. One way you can do so is by analyzing average draft position (ADP). This helps you get an edge in your league by identifying breakouts, values, or potential busts.

Depending on the site, ADP can fluctuate quite a bit. For our exercise today, we are going to use ADP data from the National Fantasy Football Championship (NFFC). These are high-stakes leagues that draft year-round and are typically full of sharp players. This will give us a good barometer of what drafts may look like come August.

Make sure you keep up to date with all your fantasy football needs by following RotoBaller on X and checking out RotoBaller.com. Let’s do our best Price Is Right impression and identify which players are mispriced in early drafts.

• Quarterback fantasy football rankings
• Running back fantasy football rankings
• Wide receiver fantasy football rankings
• Tight end fantasy football rankings
• Kicker fantasy football rankings
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• Dynasty fantasy football rankings

Undervalued Players

Drake London, WR, Atlanta Falcons - NFFC ADP: 50.89 | WR26

During his first two seasons, London has suffered through Marcus Mariota, Desmond Ridder, and a mustached bandit calling offensive plays. It would be hard-pressed for any receiver to produce under these circumstances. Let alone when their play- caller is scheming up plays for a backup tight end and fifth wide receiver over the player chosen eighth overall in the 2022 NFL Draft.

While it's been a tough start, we need to remember that London is a good player.

DRAKE LONDON WHAT A CATCH 🤯

(via @NFL)pic.twitter.com/t9TKiP0dpq

— Bleacher Report (@BleacherReport) December 10, 2023

London is getting a massive quarterback upgrade with Kirk Cousins signing a four-year, $180 million contract. Among quarterbacks with 169 dropbacks, Cousins ranked first in Pro Football Focus’s adjusted completion percentage last year. The aforementioned Desmond Ridder finished just 32nd.

New offensive coordinator Zac Robinson comes from the Sean McVay coaching tree. This is an offense that traditionally consolidates targets and hyper-targets its top receiving options. These all bode well for London's 2024 season.

Coming off draft boards as the WR26, London is in a prime position to smash this ADP. A top-12 season is easily achievable. With Cousins at quarterback, there’s room for even more. London is an easy Year 3 breakout call. He’s set up for a career year.

Kyler Murray, QB, Arizona Cardinals - NFFC ADP: 75.16 | QB13

In Round 7, Kyler Murray feels like the biggest steal available in drafts.

A WILD 2-PT CONVERSION FROM KYLER MURRAY 😱

(via @AZCardinals)pic.twitter.com/6rw5Xkm8yX

— SportsCenter (@SportsCenter) September 18, 2022

With QB3 and QB6 finishes already on his resume, Murray has proven he can be an elite fantasy quarterback. 2023 was not even that bad despite missing nine games.

#Cardinals QB Kyler Murray is one of the best values with a current round 7 NFFC ADP.

Coming off a torn ACL, he averaged more fantasy ppg than Patrick Mahomes, C.J. Stroud, Justin Herbert, Anthony Richardson, and Tua Tagovailoa.

Yet Murray is being drafted AFTER all these QBs.

— Dave Ventresca (@FF_Stallion) April 2, 2024

Murray is now a full year removed from his ACL injury.

The Cardinals are set to draft one of Malik Nabers or Marvin Harrison Jr.

Murray has previously shown top 3 upside.

Buy the dip!

— Dave Ventresca (@FF_Stallion) April 2, 2024

It’s also fair to expect improvement in Year 2 of offensive coordinator Drew Petzing’s offense. The loss of receiver Marquise Brown hurts, but he’s set to get a true difference-maker in the NFL Draft. Tight end Trey McBride remains on the roster as well as second-year receiver Michael Wilson. Murray’s health and situation are set to improve. His ADP doesn’t reflect it.

Murray still offers a Konami Code appeal. He carries elite fantasy upside and is criminally undervalued at his current ADP. A top-three season is always within striking distance, thanks to his rushing abilities. Coming off draft boards as the QB13, Murray is one of the better options available if you wait to select a quarterback.

Zamir White, RB, Las Vegas Raiders - NFFC ADP: 105.79 | RB32

White’s place on this list is tentative, pending how/if the Raiders address the running back position in the NFL Draft. For now, we will proceed as though White remains atop Las Vegas’s depth chart. White played quite well in limited action last year, finishing 14th in Next Gen Stats Rush Yards Over Expectation Per Attempt (RYOE/ATT). He played with a bruising style and amassed 397 rushing yards over his four starts in 2023.

ZAMIR WHITE WITH THE KNOCKOUT PUNCH pic.twitter.com/ROAaFP8pKk

— Bussin' With The Boys (@BussinWTB) December 25, 2023

Filling in for starter Josh Jacobs, White received plenty of work. In his four starts, the RB averaged over 23 touches per game. That kind of volume would put White on the RB1 radar. Volume paired with intriguing metrics makes White an attractive value pick.

The club did sign Alexander Mattison in free agency, but he has not proven to be a good running back thus far in his career. He presents little competition. The bigger issue for White remains whatever competition the team adds in the draft. Should the Raiders select a back, we will revisit White’s place on our list. For right now, he’s in a prime position for a breakout season and is a screaming value at this ADP.

Overvalued Players

De’Von Achane, RB, Miami Dolphins - NFFC ADP: 17.53 | RB7

Achane flashed major potential last year. He averaged an absurd 7.8 yards per carry as a rookie. With impressive speed in the open field, Achane is a threat to score any time he touches the ball.

De'Von Achane with 10 minutes left in the first half:

3 touches, 105 yards, 1 touchdown

As the great philosopher and thinker @jovan_deeb once said, "That was hard, right?"pic.twitter.com/SIqT1taPkZ

— Ahaan Rungta (@AhaanRungta) October 8, 2023

Talent is not an issue. He finished second in Next Gen Stats Rush Yards Over Expectation (RYOE). Among running backs with at least 50 carries, Achane finished third in Fantasy Points Data Suite’s Missed Tackles Forced Per Attempt (MTF/ATT). However, his role in the offense is another issue.

Miami recently restructured Raheem Mostert’s contract to keep him with the team through 2025. Mostert is coming off a career year in 2023 where he scored a ridiculous 21 total touchdowns en route to an RB2 finish in half-PPR formats. This move indicates the Dolphins are not yet ready to hand the reins to Achane entirely.

There are also durability concerns. Standing at 5-foot-9 and 188 pounds, Achane is undersized for the position. He suffered shoulder and knee injuries that forced him to miss six games in 2023. We shouldn’t hold one season’s worth of injuries against a player, but it is noteworthy with Achane, given the concerns about his size.

The problem with Achane is that his ADP assumes he ascends to a lead role when it’s not entirely clear Miami intends to use him in said fashion. While older, Mostert is still a good player and won’t be going away. It’s fair to assume Achane is in line for an expanded role in 2024. It just doesn’t seem like becoming the clear RB1 is the plan. Let someone else take the gamble at this price.

Nico Collins, WR, Houston Texans - NFFC ADP: 21.07 | WR9

Collins enjoyed a nice breakout season in 2023. He set career highs across the board. While he was a bargain in drafts last year, gamers now have to pay for his services. It’s understandable, as Collins’ play was incredible. His analytical profile was off the charts. Per Fantasy Points Data Suite, his 3.37 yards per route run (YPRR) were second only to Tyreek Hill.

Complicating matters, though, Houston recently acquired former Buffalo Bills receiver Stefon Diggs.  Second-year receiver Tank Dell is also set to return in 2024 from a fractured fibula that ended his rookie season. Both pose a significant threat to Collins. A Round 2 price tag is expensive for a player who may not be the top receiver on his own team. It’s hard to say Collins is a value with all this target competition surrounding him.

Cooper Kupp, WR, Los Angeles Rams - NFFC ADP: 32.68 | WR17

Kupp’s 2023 season started on the wrong foot when an August hamstring injury landed him on injured reserve to start the year. When he returned, Kupp didn't seem like the same player. He averaged just under 62 receiving yards per game in 2023. This was his lowest mark since his rookie year. Now contending for targets with fantasy football hero Puka Nacua, it may be difficult for Kupp to live up to his current price in drafts.

It’s hard to justify taking Kupp at this ADP when Keenan Allen is going almost a full round later with an average ADP of 42.79. Both players struggled with injuries last year, but Allen’s performance did not appear to drop off like Kupp’s.

While it’s not unfathomable that Kupp can bounce back, gambling on a 31-year-old receiver who struggled with injuries/declining play is not the best use of a third-round pick.

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