Fantasy Football ADP Values on FFPC - Undervalued, Overvalued Draft Picks

NFL training camps have officially begun, and that means the start of the 2024 NFL season is only a few weeks away. That also means fantasy draft season is fast approaching. A good way to prepare for your 2024 fantasy football draft is by identifying potentially overvalued and undervalued players relative to their ADP (average draft position).

ADP can fluctuate wildly depending on which platform you’re drafting. It’s important to be aware of these fluctuations so you can plan your draft accordingly. Today, we will be using ADP data from FFPC (Fantasy Football Players Championship) leagues to identify values and as well as potential landmines.

Make sure to follow RotoBaller on X and check out RotoBaller.com for all your fantasy football needs. Here several overvalued and undervalued players according to FFPC ADP.

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Overvalued Fantasy Football Players

Josh Jacobs, RB, Green Bay Packers: FFPC ADP: 37.5 Overall, RB12

Jacobs’ 2023 season was a disappointment. He finished as the RB28 one year removed from an RB3 finish. Even more troubling were some of Jacobs’ advanced metrics. He finished 45th in Next Gen Stats Rush Yards Over Expected (RYOE), 41st in Rush Yards Over Expected Per Attempt (RYOE/ATT), and 81st in Fantasy Points Data Suite’s Missed Tackles Forced Per Attempt (MTF/ATT). These are concerning marks and outside of his 2022 season, Jacobs has never been a very efficient player.

There’s also a question regarding whether or not Jacobs fits Green Bay’s rushing scheme.

In addition to his horrific efficiency metrics, want another reason to fade #Packers RB Josh Jacobs this year?

Per @FantasyPtsData, the Packers ran zone concept rushing plays at the 11th highest rate last year.

Among 49 backs with 100+ carries, Jacobs ranked 40th in success…

— Dave Ventresca (@FF_Stallion) July 12, 2024

The team also drafted rookie MarShawn Lloyd in the third round of the 2024 NFL Draft. Lloyd was one of the best backs in the class on pure talent, and the Packers have stated they see “shades of Aaron Jones” in Lloyd’s film. If Jacobs continues to struggle, Green Bay might give Lloyd an extended run with more touches. There’s just a little too much risk to recommend investing in Jacobs at this price.

Sam LaPorta, TE, Detroit Lions: FFPC ADP: 17.92 Overall, TE1

LaPorta is coming off a fantastic rookie season that saw him finish as the TE1 in half and full PPR leagues.

Sam LaPorta!!! Touchdown Lions!!!
🟣🟡 🦁#NFL #Vikings #Lions #MINvsDETpic.twitter.com/ptBVfX3Wbn

— Sportskeeda Pro Football (@SKProFootball) January 7, 2024

As a result, he is now being selected as the TE1 in fantasy football drafts. While that’s understandable, it might not be the best strategic move from a roster construction standpoint. Let’s compare some of LaPorta's 2023 advanced data (Courtesy of Fantasy Points Data Suite) to a few tight ends going after him in drafts.

Sam LaPorta - FFPC ADP: 17.92 Overall, TE1

TPRR (targets per route run): 26%
YPRR (yards per route run): 1.95
Target Share: 19.5%

Trey McBride - FFPC ADP: 24.7 Overall, TE3

TPRR: 27%
YPRR: 2.15
Target Share: 18.7%

Mark Andrews - FFPC ADP: 27.26 Overall, TE5

TPRR: 27%
YPRR: 2.11
Target Share: 20.8%

The above data shows there is not much difference between these three players, and it also suggests that McBride and Andrews might be better. Nonetheless, it confirms they all are equally talented and can easily return a TE1 finish if the cards fall right. If that’s the case, why pay a premium on LaPorta when you can find the same player later in drafts?

Overall, fading Laporta has nothing to do with his talent and everything to do with his cost. He is priced at his ceiling, and there are options later in drafts that give you equal production for a better price.

Marvin Harrison Jr., WR Arizona Cardinals - FFPC AD: 19th Overall, WR9

Before we get started -- Harrison is a stud. There's no debating that, and he’s going to be a fantastic pro. However, he is being drafted as the WR9 in FFPC drafts. At this price, Harrison is being taken very close to his ceiling as a rookie. We’ve seen rookie receivers come into the league and beat Harrison’s current ADP. Ja’Marr Chase and Puka Nacua both posted top-five seasons as rookies. However, this should be seen as the exception, not the norm.

Harrison will see a healthy amount of targets as he immediately slides in as Arizona’s WR1. But how much room for profit do we have at his current ADP? He’s one of the best receiver prospects to enter the league in recent years, but that doesn’t guarantee anything. Larry Fitzgerald Jr. and Calvin Johnson both finished outside the top 30 during their rookie seasons, and both were equally touted prospects as Harrison. We shouldn’t expect things to go that poorly for him as a rookie, but we also shouldn’t expect a top-10 season right off the bat.

Undervalued Fantasy Football Players

Kyler Murray, QB Arizona Cardinals - FFPC ADP: 78.68 Overall, QB8

Murray feels like one of the biggest steals available in drafts.

SO NICE TO HAVE KYLER MURRAY BACK 🔥pic.twitter.com/FGxcFrhBDZ

— Warren Sharp (@SharpFootball) November 19, 2023

With QB3 and QB6 finishes on his resume, Murray has already proven he can be a top fantasy quarterback. He posted a QB9 finish in fantasy points per game last year despite missing nine games recovering from a torn ACL. We should expect improvement from Murray now that he enters his second year in offensive coordinator Drew Petzing’s system.

Murray also gets a massive boost to his receiving core with Marvin Harrison Jr. set to be Arizona’s WR1. Stud tight end Trey McBride will be a go-to weapon as well. Murray’s health and overall offensive situation have improved, but his ADP doesn’t quite reflect it. He still offers Konami Code appeal and carries elite fantasy upside. A top-three season is always within striking distance thanks to his rushing abilities. Murray is one of the better options available if you wait until the middle rounds to select a quarterback.

Diontae Johnson, WR Carolina Panthers - FFPC ADP: 83.32 Overall, WR37

After five seasons with the Pittsburgh Steelers, Johnson was traded to the Carolina Panthers during the offseason. Johnson has always been a target hog and remains one of the game’s most underrated route runners.

SO NICE TO HAVE KYLER MURRAY BACK 🔥pic.twitter.com/FGxcFrhBDZ

— Warren Sharp (@SharpFootball) November 19, 2023

It’s been a tough few years for him since he finished as the PPR WR8 in 2021. Johnson now gets a fresh start in Carolina and slides in as Bryce Young’s WR1. Based on Young’s play as a rookie, it’s fair to wonder if this situation is that much of an improvement compared to what Johnson had in Pittsburgh. However, new Panthers Coach Dave Canales brings hope that he can fix the issues that plagued Young as a rookie. Canales crafted offenses that helped guide Geno Smith and Baker Mayfield to career seasons. He could very well do the same for Young. If that happens, Johnson would be the main beneficiary.

Entering the season as the team’s clear-cut WR1, Johnson should once again soak up targets. With an FFPC price tag of WR37, he is still being drafted closer to his floor rather than his ceiling. If Young makes strides in Year 2, then we will look back on Johnson’s preseason ADP and laugh to the bank. He makes for a fantastic pick as a WR3 or flex play, particularly in full PPR leagues.

Rashee Rice, WR, Kansas City Chiefs - FFPC ADP: 86.68 Overall, WR39

Rice’s place on this list is tentative pending any possible suspension. As of now, he has yet to be disciplined by the league following his arrest back in April. His trial is reportedly set to begin in December, and it’s possible the league won’t take action until the 2025 season. If that’s the case, then Rice is arguably the biggest value currently available in drafts.

Pat Mahomes connects with Rashee Rice for a 39-yard touchdown! ⚡

(via NFL, CBS)pic.twitter.com/9rdoGqcgTM

— Rotoworld Football (@rotoworld_fb) November 26, 2023

His analytical profile as a rookie was very strong. Per Fantasy Points Data Suite, Rice checked in with a 28% TPRR and a 2.62 YPRR. These are two metrics that highly correlate to fantasy success and bode well for Rice’s outlook. The Chiefs did add Marquise Brown and rookie Xavier Worthy to the wide receiver room. Both pose a threat to Rice's targets. However, both players were added as speed elements to try and blow the top off the defense. Neither one operates out of the same role that Rice excelled in as a rookie.

With Patrick Mahomes at quarterback, the Chiefs see two high safety looks at one of the highest rates in the league. It’s unlikely defenses change this approach, and that means Rice’s underneath role isn’t going anywhere anytime soon. He can still be a PPR cheat code.

Bottom line -- as long as Rice isn’t suspended and stays on the field, he’s going to return a profit at this ADP. He's arguably the team’s best receiver and a second-year breakout is likely.

Deshaun Watson, QB Cleveland Browns - FFPC ADP: 157.46 Overall, QB20

Watson’s 2023 season was cut short due to issues with his throwing shoulder. While he struggled with this injury and overall lousy play, Watson still found a way to be productive in fantasy football.

One of the top sleeper options at QB in #FantasyFootball drafts?#Browns QB Deshaun Watson.

His finishes in games he started and finished last year:

QB5
QB27
QB10
QB8

There’s still upside here for fantasy football. #NFL

— Dave Ventresca (@FF_Stallion) May 4, 2024

There are still many concerns surrounding the Browns’ signal-caller, He’s only started 12 games in the last three seasons, and it’s unclear if he ever regains his previous form.

🚨 INTERCEPTION 🚨

Levi Wallace picks off Deshaun Watson!pic.twitter.com/r6r5XL8zXf

— Steelers Nation (@SteelerNationCP) January 8, 2023

Look, Watson was awful last year. Any metric will show you that. At the end of the day, fantasy football is a game about scoring points. Watson showed last year he can still do that even when playing at a subpar level. If he stays healthy, he can smash his ADP and be a massive value. If you adhere to the late-round quarterback strategy, Watson makes for a great selection as he proved last year that he can still return to QB1 production.