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Outfielders - 2024 Fantasy Baseball ADP Analysis, Draft Targets, Avoids

Ronald Acuna Jr. - Fantasy Baseball Rankings, MLB Injury News, Betting Picks

It feels like the 2023 season just ended, but we're already about three months away from the start of the 2024 season and fantasy drafts are beginning to pick up. Especially now since fantasy football has come to an end for the most part.

The outfield position is once again a tricky position to navigate in 2024 drafts. It feels deep on the surface, but once you get into your draft, you'll find areas where the intriguing targets fizzle out. If you wait too long, you're going to wind up with an outfield core that more than likely underwhelms you, so that's why this is one of the positions I'll be focusing on early in my drafts. If you're able to secure at least two quality outfielders within the 7-9 rounds or so, that will set you up to take some upside plays or focus more on other positions during the middle rounds of your draft.

This ADP is from 20 NFBC Draft Champion drafts completed between November 1 and December 31. You'll find the ADP tables below along with my analysis of the ADP at the position, player values I like/dislike, etc. It's NEVER too early to discuss and draft for 2024! And lastly, this is ADP analysis and not my personal rankings.

Be sure to check all of our fantasy baseball lineup tools and weekly lineup resources:

 

Outfield Fantasy Baseball ADP Analysis

Rank Name Team ADP Min Pick Max Pick
1  Ronald Acuna Jr. ATL 1 1 1
2  Julio Rodriguez SEA 2.71 2 4
3  Corbin Carroll ARZ 4.71 3 8
4  Mookie Betts LAD 5.1 2 8
5  Kyle Tucker HOU 6.42 3 10
6  Fernando Tatis Jr. SD 7.71 5 12
7  Aaron Judge NYY 11.97 8 17
8  Juan Soto NYY 13.23 7 19
9  Yordan Alvarez HOU 16.68 9 22
10  Luis Robert Jr. CWS 28.81 19 42
11  Michael Harris II ATL 36.19 28 48
12  Adolis Garcia TEX 43.97 27 65
13  Randy Arozarena TB 46.32 35 56
14  Cody Bellinger CHC 53.81 22 75
15  Nolan Jones COL 56.71 33 70
16  Jazz Chisholm Jr. MIA 70.48 43 98
17  Mike Trout LAA 74.29 44 100
18  Josh Lowe TB 77.39 63 99
19  Christian Yelich MLW 79.29 59 96
20  Kyle Schwarber PHI 92.68 60 133
21  Bryan Reynolds PIT 94.9 81 120
22  Spencer Steer CIN 102.97 76 126
23  Lane Thomas WAS 109.9 83 133
24  Nick Castellanos PHI 110.26 80 128
25  Seiya Suzuki CHC 112.74 88 139
26  George Springer TOR 125 89 145
27  Jordan Walker STL 128.84 105 159
28  Evan Carter TEX 131.55 85 161
29  Esteury Ruiz OAK 135.48 89 222
30  Cedric Mullins BAL 142.87 106 197
31  Anthony Santander BAL 145.97 122 175
32  TJ Friedl CIN 146 117 203
33  Wyatt Langford TEX 149.19 76 188
34  Ian Happ CHC 150.61 111 187
35  Tommy Edman STL 151.39 131 172
36  Teoscar Hernandez SEA 157.81 119 180
37  Jorge Soler MIA 165.52 141 191
38  Chas McCormick HOU 165.9 121 197
39  Jackson Chourio MLW 170.03 97 248
40  James Outman LAD 171.9 151 195
41  Riley Greene DET 175.45 122 204
42  Masataka Yoshida BOS 180.58 153 215
43  Jarren Duran BOS 184.61 156 219
44  Brandon Nimmo NYM 193.74 174 227
45  Christopher Morel CHC 203.94 155 232
46  Lars Nootbaar STL 204.19 170 234
47  Kerry Carpenter DET 207.52 168 238
48  Steven Kwan CLE 212.58 177 254
49  Daulton Varsho TOR 212.68 185 253
50  Jarred Kelenic ATL 221.61 185 258
51  Taylor Ward LAA 222.13 179 266
52  Starling Marte NYM 232.71 210 277
53  Jack Suwinski PIT 241.32 210 288
54  Lourdes Gurriel Jr. ARZ 241.45 198 295
55  Whit Merrifield TOR 246.16 200 315
56  Gavin Lux LAD 255.9 184 322
57  Luis Rengifo LAA 263.77 209 292
58  Tyler O'Neill BOS 268.68 207 340
59  Leody Taveras TEX 269.13 239 340
60  Nelson Velazquez KC 273.06 229 317
61  MJ Melendez KC 277.52 204 311
62  Bryan De La Cruz MIA 279.68 213 323
63  Kris Bryant COL 280.03 223 335
64  Will Benson CIN 285.35 220 364
65  Brendan Donovan STL 287.61 249 331
66  Jung Hoo Lee SF 287.9 157 413
67  Jose Siri TB 288.29 239 356
68  Tommy Pham ARZ 290.39 248 360
69  Jake Fraley CIN 293.52 225 347
70  Max Kepler MIN 295.74 209 363
71  Henry Davis PIT 296.35 235 372
72  Parker Meadows DET 296.81 262 345
73  Brent Rooker OAK 300.26 226 338
74  Sal Frelick MLW 301.23 244 353
75  Matt Wallner MIN 305.23 244 360
76  Austin Hays BAL 305.65 264 349
77  Jeff McNeil NYM 307.48 260 356
78  Willi Castro MIN 307.52 255 383
79  Giancarlo Stanton NYY 324.23 207 390
80  Alek Thomas ARZ 325.48 287 370
81  Alex Verdugo NYY 325.81 278 374
82  Pete Crow-Armstrong CHC 330.71 206 443
83  Brandon Marsh PHI 334.29 292 409
84  Alex Kirilloff MIN 351.39 288 405
85  Luke Raley Jr. TB 351.58 307 407
86  Chris Taylor LAD 356.42 310 401
87  Ezequiel Duran TEX 356.97 305 395
88  Ceddanne Rafaela BOS 362.26 305 454
89  Garrett Mitchell MLW 365.94 303 505
90  Jesus Sanchez MIA 373.35 292 447
91  Mickey Moniak LAA 378.71 296 456
92  Jake McCarthy ARZ 378.87 194 515
93  Wilyer Abreu BOS 382.48 303 452
94  LaMonte Wade Jr. SF 383.35 321 446
95  Jasson Dominguez NYY 383.58 322 455
96  Matt Vierling DET 387.35 309 462
97  Adam Duvall BOS 388.13 289 503
98  Drew Waters KC 391.55 333 463
99  Andrew Benintendi CWS 396.52 339 470
100  Johan Rojas PHI 402.48 318 479
101  Michael Conforto SF 402.9 332 459
102  Zach McKinstry DET 409.39 363 446
103  Edward Olivares PIT 415.35 272 475
104  Harrison Bader CIN 415.42 286 495
105  Mark Canha DET 416.74 373 482
106  Ryan O'Hearn BAL 419.52 339 503
107  Hunter Renfroe KC 431.29 338 549
108  Charlie Blackmon COL 434.9 394 494
109  Brenton Doyle COL 436.94 330 585
110  Eddie Rosario ATL 437.35 364 500
111  Mitch Haniger SF 449.94 361 588
112  Luis Matos SF 456.61 393 537
113  Cavan Biggio TOR 467.13 357 601
114  Blake Sabol SF 467.81 379 664
115  Ji Hwan Bae PIT 468.55 408 569
116  Seth Brown OAK 472.45 368 540
117  Joc Pederson SF 479.35 382 583
118  Ramon Laureano CLE 479.77 407 572
119  Mauricio Dubon HOU 480.35 316 556
120  Tyrone Taylor NYM 480.55 303 616
121  Hunter Goodman COL 482.29 374 622
122  Colton Cowser BAL 492.13 329 612
123  Mike Yastrzemski SF 499.16 442 567
124  Trent Grisham NYY 500.26 446 625
125  Joey Wiemer MLW 500.45 404 637

 

Outfielders I Anticipate Having The Most Shares Of

  1. Randy Arozarena, Tampa Bay Rays
  2. Seiya Suzuki, Chicago Cubs
  3. Evan Carter & Wyatt Langford, Texas Rangers
  4. Jordan Walker, St. Louis Cardinals
  5. James Outman, Los Angeles Dodgers
  6. Jarren Duran, Boston Red Sox
  7. Kerry Carpenter, Detroit Tigers
  8. Jose Siri, Tampa Bay Rats
  9. Ceddanne Rafaela, Boston Red Sox
  10. Max Kepler, Minnesota Twins

If I miss out on the elite names or decide to target other positions in the first 2-3 rounds, Randy Arozarena is going to be a popular target of mine in Rounds 3/4 depending on the league size. Arozarena has put up three straight 20/20 seasons while posting his best full-season walk and strikeout rates of his career in 2023 at 12.2% and 23.9%, respectively. He also recorded the best AVG EV and hard-hit rate of his career. Another 20/20 season is a likely outcome in 2024.

By the time I get to the ADP range containing Seiya Suzuki, Wyatt Langford, Evan Carter, and Jordan Walker, I hopefully already have one or two outfielders. As it did last year, the outfield position tends to dry out after the top 15-20 names or so, but there are still some intriguing upside plays in the middle rounds with the aforementioned quartet serving as my favorite targets.

Out of these four, Carter is probably the hottest name in draft rooms right now after how he finished the season and performed in the postseason as a 21-year-old rookie. The ADP around pick 130 feels very reasonable for someone with his upside that debuted as well as he did. Carter has the upside to go 20/25 in 2024 with a solid AVG/OBP and plenty of run production hitting in the middle of Texas' loaded lineup. This ADP is honestly a steal. Langford should join him in Texas' outfield very early in the season and perhaps even on Opening Day. Given his blend of contact, approach, power, and speed, Langford is my #1 overall prospect for fantasy purposes and one of my favorite outfield targets in redraft leagues this season. A 20/20 season as a rookie should not be ruled out.

As for Suzuki and Walker, both are fairly undervalued right now. Over the final two months of the season, Suzuki slashed .350/.406/.667 with 15 doubles and 12 home runs in 207 plate appearances. Overall, Suzuki's metrics were very impressive across the board, with better than league-average marks in contact, zone contact, whiff, chase, and quality of contact. I'd be more than fine having him or Walker as my OF2. Walker's final 125 plate appearances resulted in a .339/.392/.545 slash line with five home runs and a 19.2% strikeout rate. Both players have significant ROI potential.

Lastly, Jarren Duran could wind up as a steal at his current 185 ADP. In 2023, Duran posted a 91.2% zone contact rate, 78.6% contact rate, 46.3% hard-hit rate, and 96th percentile sprint speed. If he's not traded, Duran should lead off a ton for Boston with guys like Rafael Devers and Triston Casas hitting behind him. Over a full season, Duran has the upside to post a 15/30 season with more than 90 runs. That would be phenomenal production for where he's being drafted.

 

Outfielder ADPs I'm Not Keen On

  1. Cody Bellinger, Free Agent
  2. Jazz Chisholm Jr., Miami Marlins
  3. Esteury Ruiz, Oakland Athletics
  4. Jackson Chourio, Milwaukee Brewers
  5. Jarred Kelenic, Atlanta Braves

The most surprising name of this group is likely Jazz Chisholm. His inclusion here is 100% due to his durability concerns and not his talent level. Chisholm has averaged 29 home runs and 33 steals per 650 plate appearances during his career, but has yet to exceed 507 plate appearances in a season. We've also seen his zone contact, contact, and whiff rates get worse every season so far. Maybe he'll have a massive year, but I'll let someone else pay the cost.

With Bellinger, it's more about the minimal ROI opportunity at his near top-50 ADP. It was a nice bounce-back season in 2023, and I don't believe it was entirely fluky. However, Bellinger's 6.1% barrel rate, 87.9 mph AVG EV, and 31.4% hard-hit rate were all the worst of his career last season. On the flip side, Bellinger's zone contact, whiff, and strikeout rates were all the best of his career, too. The ADP isn't terrible, but we've seen how inconsistent Bellinger can be and I believe there's a better chance he returns a negative ROI than a positive one this season.

Drafting Esteury Ruiz goes against my entire drafting mentality and approach when it comes to stolen bases. I'd much rather spread my speed out so it's less of a blow if one of my top SB guys gets hurt. Plus, Ruiz doesn't really help you outside of one category.

Kelenic and Chourio are being drafted too high due to the trade and contract extension, respectively. Maybe a change of scenery will be positive for Kelenic, but there are still too many red flags and inconsistencies in his profile for me to invest in this season. He's had a strikeout rate north of 31% and a whiff rate near 34% in each of the last two seasons while running below-average contact rates. And on top of all of that, he might be in a platoon situation in left field.

Lastly, Chourio is a great talent with a bright future, especially for fantasy. But he's also an aggressive hitter and I'm wondering if that gets exploited during his rookie season. If I can get him closer to pick 200, I'm potentially on board. But that's not happening since he signed the contract extension back in early December. I'm currently in the middle of two NFBC drafts and he went 136th and 151st in those drafts.



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Top Fantasy Football D/ST Rankings (Weeks 11, 12, 13, 14) - Defense Streamers and Starts

Welcome, RotoBallers, to our fantasy football D/ST streamers and starts for Weeks 11, 12, 13, and 14 -- looking at the next four weeks and identifying the best D/ST matchups. Streaming defenses each week is a strategy that some fantasy managers have adopted over the years, and looking ahead weeks in advance could give you an […]


Chicago Bears Defense - Jaquan Brisker, DST, D/ST, Rankings, Streamers

Week 11 IDP Rankings for Fantasy Football (2024) - Defense Positional Rankings for LB, DL, DB

At the outset of every season, I warn fantasy fans and rankers alike not to overvalue the preseason strength of schedule rankings. Those ratings rely largely on player and unit performance from the previous year, which is not always consistent. Whether it's player migration, age, coaching changes, or all of the above, you will see […]


Titans Defense D/ST Streamers, Rankings, Waiver Wire - Harold Landry Fantasy Football IDP

IDP Waiver Wire Pickups and Streamers for Week 11 (2024)

The usual names are absent from the leaderboard for sacks. T.J. Watt, who led the league in sacks in two of the past three seasons, is only No. 12 this season. Maxx Crosby is tied with Watt with 6.5 sacks. Nick Bosa is barely hanging onto the top twenty with just 5.5 sacks in 2024. […]