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Fantasy football owners do not build their teams around tight ends, but as the NFL becomes more and more of a passing league, tight ends have become increasingly important.
The offseason can wreak havoc with a player’s fantasy value, especially in dynasty leagues. Listed below are two tight ends to buy and two tight ends to sell, based on current ADP in dynasty leagues.
Note: 2017 average draft positions from Fantasy Football Calculator are in parentheses.
Stock Rising
Julius Thomas, Miami Dolphins (14.09)
2016 Stats: 30 receptions, 281 yards, 4 touchdowns
Thomas went from back-to-back 12-TD seasons with the Denver Broncos to reaching the end zone only nine times in two years with the Jacksonville Jaguars. Part of the problem was probably that he went from having Peyton Manning as his quarterback to having Blake Bortles as his passer, but Thomas was also dogged by injuries and just stopped being the playmaker he was back in his Denver days. Maybe he was slowed down by the multi-millions Jacksonville stuffed in his pockets.
Thomas will be reunited with former Denver offensive coordinator Adam Gase in Miami as Gase will now be his head coach. If anyone knows how to properly utilize Thomas in an offense, it is Gase. The Dolphins have a talented receiving corps that should give Thomas opportunities for one-on-one matchups in the secondary, and quarterback Ryan Tannehill should be able to get Thomas the ball since Tannehill is better at throwing short passes than long ones. Thomas bouncing back for 600 yards and eight touchdowns would not be a surprise.
Jesse James, Pittsburgh Steelers (N/A)
2016 Stats: 39 receptions, 338 yards, 3 touchdowns
The door to Pittsburgh’s starting tight end job opened wider than a Primanti sandwich when the Steelers released oft-injured Ladarius Green last week. With Pittsburgh not selecting a tight end during last month’s draft and not signing a big-ticket tight end during the offseason, James is the odds-on favorite to become the top tight end on the depth chart when the season starts. Only second-year UDFA Xavier Grimble poses a remote threat on the depth chart.
James showed some flashes of talent during the regular season when he filled in for the injured Green, but he really opened some eyes with his postseason performance, catching 10 passes for 131 yards in Pittsburgh’s final two playoff games. James has a big body (6’7”, 261 lbs) and could become Ben Roethlisberger’s favorite red zone option this season. He will also only be 23 years old and have plenty of upside in dynasty leagues heading into the 2017 campaign.
Stock Falling
Cameron Brate, Tampa Bay Buccaneers (12.03)
2016 Stats: 57 receptions, 660 yards, 8 touchdowns
What have you done for me lately? All Brate did last season was tie San Diego’s Hunter Henry for tops among tight ends with eight touchdown receptions, outscoring notable names like New England’s Rob Gronkowski, Kansas City’s Travis Kelce and Carolina’s Greg Olsen. He was Jameis Winston’s second-best option in Tampa Bay’s powerful passing attack, trailing only NFL target leader Mike Evans. Brate was on the verge of becoming a sure top-10 tight end heading into the 2017 campaign… and then Tampa Bay drafted O.J. Howard in the first round.
No matter how great Brate is or how much Winston and the Bucs throw the ball in 2017, Brate’s fantasy value can only go so high because of Howard being in the mix. The Buccaneers did not draft the top tight end coming out of college so he could be the blocking tight end on first-down run plays. No matter how many two tight-end sets Tampa Bay uses, Brate is going to be hard-pressed to have another eight-TD season now that Howard is sharing his spotlight.
Delanie Walker, Tennessee Titans (11.04)
2016 Stats: 65 receptions, 800 yards, 7 touchdowns
Walker has had three great seasons in a row as he totally turned his career around in Tennessee. He racked up 2,788 receiving yards and 17 touchdowns between 2014 and 2016 after never eclipsing the 600-yard plateau during his first eight seasons in the NFL. Walker has been the most dependable pass catcher in the Titans offense and has been very good for fantasy owners.
The issue with Walker is twofold. He is getting older, and while for some like Jason Witten and Antonio Gates where it seems Father Time cannot tackle all tight ends, Walker will be 33 when the season begins and is prone to minor injuries. He had 31 fewer targets, 29 fewer receptions and 288 fewer yards in 2016 than he did during his amazing 2015 season. Tennessee has also added two wide receivers to their previously impotent group via the draft, including fifth-pick overall Corey Davis, so if Marcus Mariota did not target Walker 100 times this upcoming season it would not be shocking.
