Dynasty Baseball Risers and Fallers - Hitters

Pierre Camus examines the biggest risers and fallers in dynasty fantasy baseball leagues early in the 2021 season.

Baseball is a game where patience is rewarded. Identifying prospects with fantasy potential and seeing them develop over the course of years is the most rewarding feeling there is. Dynasty leagues provide fantasy baseball managers with this very sense of gratification. Of course, many times a player doesn't ever pan out. Aging stars on the decline also force hard decisions as to when to cut ties.

Now that we are about 50 games into the 2021 MLB season, it's a good time to revisit dynasty rankings and see who the biggest risers and fallers are. In this piece, I will go through every offensive position to provide a full roster of dynasty risers and fallers.

To determine this list, I compared my preseason dynasty rankings to those updated in mid-May, which can be found on our Premium Dynasty Rankings page as well as FantasyPros' expert consensus.

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Risers

Yermin Mercedes (C/DH, CHW) - The big question: is he even a catcher? He qualifies as such in ESPN and Ottoneu (Fangraphs) but not in Yahoo, Fantrax, NFBC, or CBS. Mercedes took the baseball world by storm from the jump, going 5-for-5 with four RBI in the second game of the season. He followed up with three hits the next night, including a homer and a double and he's barely slowed since. Mercedes just went deep a sixth time and is leading the majors with a .364 average.

Mercedes wasn't on the fantasy radar before the season began but he's quickly climbing up the ranks. It's hard to hate on such a sudden success story but be wary of the late-age breakout without a defensive home. When regression hits, as it eventually will, his value could dry up in a hurry. For that reason, I still have Mercedes behind budding offensive catchers William Contreras and Tyler Stephenson.

Nate Lowe (1B, TEX) - A week into the season, Lowe was looking like an MVP candidate after collecting three homers and 14 RBI. He's come back down to Earth but is still proving that a steady dose of playing time in a more hitter-friendly environment was all he needed to thrive. The sky is limit now for this mighty slugger. What nobody saw coming was the bonus steals. Lowe has four SB already after stealing all of four total bases across four minor-league seasons. The Rangers will run, that's for sure. Lowe has jumped past players like Dominic Smith, Luke Voit, and Rhys Hoskins in long-term value and could keep climbing the dynasty ranks.

Garrett Hampson (2B/SS/OF, COL) - Can we say that Hampson has finally "arrived" as a dependable big-leaguer? After seeing his average drop the past two seasons, he's holding steady at .250 but posting a career-best .451 slugging percentage. His hard-hit rate was an anemic 23.4% in 2020 but is up to league-average standards at 34.2% in 2021. Despite his elite speed, Hampson is driving the ball more and getting better results. A 20/20 season could be in the cards. Although the Rockies are on a downswing and could get worse if Story is traded midseason, a rebuild and spiritual cleansing could prove beneficial in the long run. If nothing else, Hampson has a starting job locked down.

Nico Hoerner (2B/3B, CHC) - I'll admit I was out on the entire Cubs offense before the season. While Anthony Rizzo has continued to decline, Kris Bryant is doing his best to showcase his bat skills for other teams before the trade deadline. Nico Hoerner slots in at the tail end of the lineup but should serve as the regular second baseman from now on. We don't have much of a sample to extrapolate this year due to a late call-up and then forearm strain that sent him to the IL. He's hitting well (.319 AVG/.318 xBA) and stealing bases (three in 14 games), which is enough to move this former first-round pick up a few spots in dynasty.

Jazz Chisholm (2B/SS, MIA) - Full disclosure: my Twitter is pretty close to becoming a Jazz Chisholm stan account. As a lifelong Marlins fan, I am completely biased in saying I'd pay any price to acquire the new drip king of the 305. It wouldn't be bad advice either. He's got the power/speed combo fantasy managers covet and he's all of 23. I was already far more bullish on him than most rankers and now there's no holding back. Chisholm is a top-10 second baseman and has jumped ahead of Gavin Lux.

Jazz Chisholm is now tied for 2nd in the Majors in steals with 8.

He remains the only one that has yet to be caught stealing. pic.twitter.com/KNEeOKkLYY

— Tyler Wilson (@KingOfBuffalo) May 16, 2021

Jared Walsh (1B/OF, LAA) - The surprising midseason release of Albert Pujols was mostly prompted by the offensive output of Walsh in April. Although he does have some trouble with lefties (.238/.289/.357), Walsh is second on the Angels in WAR behind only some guy named Trout. He's done enough to prove that last year's finish was no fluke and the good times could keep coming.

Alex Kirilloff (1B/OF, MIN) - Last chance to buy in on AK19. Kirilloff made us wait 15 at-bats before registering a hit but then the flood gates opened. After four homers in a three-game span, injury came calling but he is nearly ready to return from a wrist sprain that shouldn't affect him. Kirilloff is a power bat but his .317 minor-league career average lends hope that he can be more Nelson Cruz than Miguel Sano.

Shohei Ohtani (DH, LAA) - All we needed was to see him stay healthy for a large chunk of the season. He's done better than that, rightfully staking a claim as the best player in baseball. Ohtani's DH-only persona has suffered from the specter of limited at-bats even when healthy because of his pitching routine. Yet he is nearly top-50 in total plate appearances this year and crushing the ball any time he gets up to the plate. This is a case where you do not sell under any circumstance.

Fallers

Ryan Jeffers (C, MIN) - After an anemic start to 2021 and quick trip from Minneapolis to its twin, St. Paul, to the team's alternate training site, any appeal Jeffers may have is purely in the dynasty realm for the time being. The 23-year-old backstop was supposed to split time with Mitch Garver this season but got off to a .147 start with 18 K in 34 at-bats. For that reason, he also slips from 14 in my preseason dynasty catcher rankings to 24. There's plenty of potential here but it's clear he needs more seasoning and the Twins themselves may be headed for a rebuild if they don't turn things around quickly with this aging roster.

Josh Bell (1B, WAS) - Better than last year is the best we can say about Bell right now. He's smashing the ball harder than ever with a 53.7% Hard% but the swing-and-miss tendencies haven't dissipated. His plate discipline, once a strength, keeps getting worse, as does his batting average.

If Bell keeps selling out for power, we'll be left with the next Miguel Sano. That's not a good thing. Now 28, Bell has shown that the Pirates may not be completely to blame for his derailed development as a hitter. The season is young and a recent four-game hitting streak have dragged his average all the way up to .173 but red flags still abound.

Keston Hiura (1B/2B, MIL) - Here's an obvious one. All the concerns about his increasing strikeout rate and lack of contact in 2020 were fully justified. Hiura's K% kept rising up to 36% and he limped to a .152/.247/.266 slash line before mercifully being demoted on May 3. It's not even as if fantasy managers were able to extract some power out of him as a tradeoff - he hit just one homer in 26 games this season. Hiura is just 24 and may straighten things out but he is a true albatross on dynasty rosters as he is unplayable, untradeable, and undroppable.

Eugenio Suarez (3B/SS, CIN) - It's not a huge slide but I did move Suarez down a few spots in my updated dynasty rankings, not just based on his defensive lapses either. Suarez can still launch the ball, as his seven HR and 13.5% barrel rate attest to. His strikeout rate is at a career-worst 34.4% which is the continuation of a four-year trend, as is a declining xBA that is a pitiful .178 after 143 at-bats. At age 29, Suarez may simply be on a downward trajectory that won't turn around.

Gleyber Torres (2B/SS, NYY) - This was a tough call between Torres and Trevor Story, both of whom I was below preseason consensus on. Ironically, Story may wind up replacing Torres in New York. It's hard to figure what Torres is going to be long-term since he no longer resembles the slugger he was two years ago. His plate discipline is improving and he's got a very respectable 7.8% K-BB% but with it has come a lower exit velocity, paltry barrel rate, and below-average contact rate. To this point, his HR barrage against Baltimore in 2019 may have made him look like a better hitter than he really is.

Victor Robles (OF, WAS) - Oh Victor, we barely knew ye. Those 17 HR and 28 SB back in '19 offered us a glimpse of a budding superstar that we're still waiting to see again. Looking into his Statcast rankings, we may have to admit that other than elite sprint speed and defense, we have no reason to really buy-in.

Robles is offering up hope by swiping a bag in each of the last two games and five hits in his past eight at-bats. He's still sitting on zero homers, however, so even if the steals start coming, is he really better than Myles Straw?

Mike Yastrzemski (OF, SF) - With all the Giants aged 30+ having career revivals, Yaz is the last one we expected to disappoint. Yet he is rolling with a .188 xBA and .277 xwOBA after 122 plate appearances. We have to remember that even though this is only his third MLB season, he is 30 years old and was never a high-end prospect to begin with. It might be best to cut ties with him now by moving him to a team willing to bet he'll rebound.

Tommy Pham (OF, SD) - It's time to accept that we may never get the pre-San Diego version of Pham back. In two seasons with the Friars, he has slashed .204/.320/.275 with four HR and nine SB in 250 plate appearances. The slugging is astonishingly low for a player who has three seasons of 20 or more homers under his belt. His expected slugging has taken a nosedive since he hit 30.

A glance at his Statcast profile reveals that he may be underperforming across the board. His .196 batting average masks a .255 xBA and his hard-hit rate of 45% is solid as ever. We may see a midseason hot streak if his luck turns around but that just means it's time to flip him to a contender. The power isn't coming back and injury concerns are still there.

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