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Michael Pittman Jr. was an overhyped wide receiver coming off a breakout season in 2022. But neither the Colts nor Pittman lived up to expectations.
New quarterback Matt Ryan was cooked. Coach Frank Reich was fired halfway through the season. Interim coach Jeff Saturday couldn't get it done on Sundays.
Can we expect better from Pittman in 2022? What's he worth now? Let's take a look.
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Michael Pittman Background
Michael Pittman Jr. was an early second-round pick in 2020, and he broke out in his second season. In 2021, he caught 88 passes for 1,082 yards and six touchdowns, an impressive performance that put him at WR17 in PPR and WR16 in standard leagues.
Last season felt like a disappointment for Pittman backers because he didn't take a step forward. But when you dig into the numbers, Pittman's 2022 was better than it felt at times. He finished as the WR20 in PPR. He didn't fall flat; instead, he just didn't improve.
Michael Pittman Jr. PlayerProfiler Page
Pittman had 12 more targets in 2022 than in 2021 and made 11 more catches. His catch percentage of 70.2% was the 17th-highest in the NFL, but he gained 157 fewer yards than he did in 2021. Matt Ryan's weak arm hurt him. Pittman averaged 6.6 yards per target, compared with 8.4 the year before, and just 9.3 yards per reception, compared with 12.3. Colts' rookie quarterback Anthony Richardson has a much stronger arm than the aged Matt Ryan, but Richardson is an inaccurate passer.
Pittman's four touchdowns in 2022 were two fewer than he scored in 2021. All the Colts' offensive players were hurt by the terrible offensive production of the whole team. In 2021, the Colts ranked ninth in scoring offense, but in 2022, a season in which league-wide scoring declined, the Colts ranked 30th. If the Colts' offense even improves a little, Pittman's touchdown total should be expected to increase.
2023 Dynasty Outlook
Michael Pittman Jr. ranks as the WR27, just behind Mike Evans and ahead of Terry McLaurin, in an early 2023 RotoBaller half-point PPR tier list. In the best ball rankings, he ranks slightly higher at WR22.
I think WR27 may be a little bit low for Pittman. It's certainly in his range of outcomes if Anthony Richardson is as bad at completing passes as he was in college. Richardson completed 54.7% of passes in college, and his completion percentage got worse from his second season to his third.
Kevin Cole, the publisher of Unexpected Points, plotted the correlations between college completion percentage and NFL completion percentage and found that it was unlikely Richardson would be able to improve enough to become an accurate NFL quarterback. His analysis showed: "Richardson's short-area completion percentage ranked 1,374 of 1,426 quarterback seasons since 2015. That puts him in the 3rd percentile for short-area accuracy, the most stable form of accuracy translating to the NFL."
Pittman does have upside as a possible WR2, however, even if Richardson proves to be a terrible passer. If the Colts' offense improves, Pittman could see his touchdown total increase. An offense with Richardson and Jonathan Taylor running the ball could be dynamic. In 2021, the Colts scored 49 offensive touchdowns, 27 of which were of the passing variety. In 2022, they only scored 25 offensive touchdowns with 17 being passing touchdowns. It is a good bet those numbers will increase.
Pittman was also not targeted often in the red zone. Only 35.3% of the Colts' red zone targets went to Pittman, but he caught 8-of-the-12 and scored three touchdowns. The leading receiver in red zone targets was Drake London, with a 66.7% red zone target rate. If Pittman can maintain approximately equal receptions and yards as he did in 2022 (perhaps a big if), he will likely increase his fantasy scoring with more touchdowns.
What's Michael Pittman Jr Worth in 2023?
Michael Pittman Jr's value skyrocketed during the 2022 offseason and then collapsed as the season went along. On PredictionStrike, Pittman's price rose from $2.04 in early June to a high of $3.97 in September and then fell back to $2.03 by January. Now he's slightly below his pre-2022 price, even though his fantasy value was pretty close to what it was in 2021.
Keep Trade Cut's dynasty value assessor also shows Pittman's value has decreased somewhat--by about 600 points--since the 2022 offseason. His positional rank fell from a high of WR7 in September 2022 to WR24 now. Keep Trade Cut values him similarly to Treylon Burks, J.K. Dobbins, Deebo Samuel, D.J. Moore, Brandon Aiyuk, and Jordan Love.
Some smart fantasy manager was able to pair Pittman with rookie tight end Dalton Kincaid, an unproven player at a position where rookies often flop, for Jaylen Waddle. Another trade that could turn out well if my thesis on the Colts' offense improving proves true is this one: Pittman, Isiah Pacheco, and a 2024 1st-round pick for Jonathan Taylor and Hunter Renfrow. The commonality in most of the trades involving Pittman is that he is an add-on piece.
Michael Pittman Jr Recommendation
Michael Pittman Jr. is difficult to value because of the uncertainty about the Colts. They have a rookie quarterback who is unprecedented in both bad and good ways. They have a new coach. There is a wide range of outcomes for Pittman. He has a good chance to slightly outperform his current ranking because he will probably score more touchdowns this season. He won't be a top-12 WR, however. His long-term career prospects are also likely better than WR27-24.
Those rostering Pittman should hold onto him. I wouldn't recommend trading for him given the uncertainty about Anthony Richardson, but if you can get him for a good price, he could be a valuable addition.
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